MPG - Metro Glass

[steveb]

yes bottom draw for me,take it out of my portfolio and forget about them.

[Scrunch]

Yes MPG is the wrong stock to hold on every level at the moment.

It certainly has been the wrong stock to hold but that doesn't mean it is the wrong stock to hold, only the future will tell that. The good scenario is they use existing cashflow to repay debt and get this down without a cap raise. The problems in oz are resolved and the new competitor damage is mitigated. If all this happens the share price would probably double, triple or more.

The market is trying to guess what will happen and the share price indicates progressively higher probabilities are being assigned to down-side scenarios. The question is whether all the downside risk is now priced in, only part or too much.

[RupertBear]

Hmmm appears to be “trickling” up a little bit....starting with a 3 is better than starting with a 2.... no news that I am aware of but not complaining

[Lease]

Hmmm appears to be “trickling” up a little bit....starting with a 3 is better than starting with a 2.... no news that I am aware of but not complaining

This is another one that is worth paying attention.

[RupertBear]

Up 6.7% today...now thats weird...

[Balance]

Up 6.7% today...now thats weird...

Big seller finishes selling and traders finished gaming the seller.

Plus there’s always the possibility of corporate activity.

[BigBob]

Probably 4 things for the recent bounce.

1. Lower interest rates recently. Meaning less debt load for Metro plus more borrowing power for residential customers doing new builds.

2. New report saying building activity actually growing more strongly than anticipated.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115...ew-report-says

3. BNZ managed fund buying shares recently, suggesting that debt ratio is fine.

4. Punters betting it's bottomed.

Do you really think that those factors has resulted in a an increase on the back of just under 11000 shares at grand a total of $3,806. Or do you think you are over analyzing it a bit...? 😉

[steveb]

Hey ogg your'e our resident takeover theorist,what are the chances here

[RupertBear]

Maybe but it's what Balance said. The big seller has gone. Hence no liquidity/supply to keep the share price down anymore.

To keep things simple, there are two factors for this company, debt and construction activity outlook.

Interest rates are now going to be lower for longer, perhaps zero for next 5 years. This wasn't the case a few months ago.

Second, construction activity appears to be going up, not down. There's another 2 years to go before peak it seems. This is the report:

https://www.rlb.com/wp-content/uploa...-Report-92.pdf

Things may have finally turned for this company.

Thanks Ogg very helpful posts

[Lease]

I would think high. But they're not gonna pay much more than 40c cents though, so you're wasting your time.

Be better if a take over didn't happen and you waited 5 years...but who here has the patience for that.

Just look at all the people who have been stung by this stock, trying to pick the bottom.

Unless you're a fund manager, best to stay clear.

Vow, I hope someone launch takeover bid as I just got in at 29.5C two days ago.