MPG - Metro Glass

[flyer]

yep, in the 20's

[Arbroath]

Well, the market didn’t like that announcement

Maybe just too many ‘negative’ phrases in the narrative

Share price back into the 20s soon by the look of it

Correct winner. Given they hey got back to 35c and then sank on the interim result I'm not really sure what the punters were hoping for. They've reduced net debt by another $10m in 6 months because they still have decent cash flows. Yes profit was a little weaker but is more competition a surprise? Brokers have been calling lower profit for another couple of years so nothing new in that.

I imagine they wont start to recover until ebit stabilises and/or they reinstate a dividend and that could be a couple of years away.

[alex f]

What happened with Bain? Wonder if they'll be shopping for more?, a few big blocks went through today.

[carrom74]

27cents.. All time low(i guess)..)

Remember BAIN was buying around 44cents... i am keenly watching though...

[silu]

27cents.. All time low(i guess)..)

Remember BAIN was buying around 44cents... i am keenly watching though...

I expect a third downgrade.

[Lease]

My guess is MPG 2020 FY will make profit. 1st half eps 4C. 2nd half I assume it's break-even.( It's likely as last year it had big $9.5m write off in 2nd half. This year only $5m write off and $1.1m had already been included in 1st half result. The balance $3.9m is offset by $1.7m gain on change of accounting standard of IFRS 16 so net write off for 2nd half is only $2.2m, substantially less than last year).

Therefore if 2nd half result did break-even, then full year esp is 4C, reflect PE ratio is only 7 on current SP. It's really cheap.

[Beagle]

I expect a third downgrade.

They almost always come in 3's.

[winner69]

They almost always come in 3's.

Metro already have more than that ..or is it only 3 in a year and the counter starts again.

[Beagle]

Metro already have more than that ..or is it only 3 in a year and the counter starts again.

I think the counter is reset every financial year mate, but yes you are quite right, they are a perennial disappointer.

[Snow Leopard]

This is as you say 'an interesting value play'.

Cranking the handle on the old stock valuing machine and along with two washers, a small cog and a dead spider, 42 drops out of the bottom.

I am guessing that is 42 cents New Zealand, which is 50% upside, and is based on the mid-case assumptions that MPG will putter along, pay a 2c from 2022 and slowly decline.

Liquidity is not great, and they have far too much in intangibles on the balance sheet, but a write down there is non-cash ( was once though, eh! ).


So for the moment I am not particularly tempted, but I hope it goes well for you.

Disc: Stock Valuing Machine often produces '+++Divide by Cucumber Error+++' but dead spiders are rare.