Technically this still looks shikkered. I have leaned that picking bottoms is a messy business.
One might be tempted to try if they thought management were prepared to own up, admit the enormity of their mistake and take the entire write-off of the Australian operation on the chin, but the fact that they still appear to be delusional enough to think they can turn this around when they appear incapable of stopping the rot domestically means one needs to form an objective view of managements capabilities as demonstrated over the years. I see no obvious catalyst for the systemic decline to suddenly stop.
Sure they will limp along and continue to reduce debt, (and trade ostensibly at the behest of their financiers), but where this all leads too with new and efficient operators ready to take great strides and eat up lots of market share, who knows but it probably won't be pretty. The value of intangible assets on their balance sheet looks grossly overstated to me.
Who can reliably say what is the sustainable earning of their N.Z. business with significant new competition coming but I think its pretty easy to estimate the net present value of future Australian earnings ! Fully deserves sub 20 cent penny dreadful status, in my opinion and that's where I expect the share price trajectory to continue to head.
Last edited by Beagle; 12-01-2020 at 05:03 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I'm thinking (hoping may be a better description) that there is going to be a fairly large demand for glass with the rebuilding in Australia that will follow the bushfires. Hopefully MPG management will recognise this and be ready for the upswing in demand. Who knows this could be the making of the Australian side of the business....
Have been horribly Burned and Beaten-up by this one stock people. Wish I had had Beagles advice to avoid originally, particularly about the very high value of Intangibles in the accounts. Enjoyed the original Dividend returns, but absolutely killed by the Capital losses (80 cents to 37 cents then more) after announcement of only some New competition coming up. Still don't understand fully how that One announcement has affected the share price so much, for an event so far in the future. Have challenged the Audited valuation of Intangible assets with the FMA who have concluded they remain effectively "plausible" based on Auditors' working papers assessed by FMA. Have lost faith in Auditors PWC valuations and the FMA at this point in time - the FMA seems to have the Auditors backs not the Investors'. Fair to say - still licking my wounds on this one...
Good luck to all New Capital players who have the patience to wait for the Debt paydown but I'm OUT!
All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford
Management and directors have talked a big game ever since this listed of growth, improving efficiencies, streamlining processes and any other buzzword catchphrase they can think of. In my opinion they are not to be trusted with regard to any assertion they make. Time and time and time again we've been told that this new equipment, structural review, opeational review, whatever... is going to improve fianncial performance. Trust is earned, not given and the board and management deserve none.
This is one of the very few shares I have lost money on in recent years and going back there would be like a dog returning to its own vomit, which is something I don't so.
Losing money once through broken promises, creative talk and half truths, shame on them, losing it twice, shame on me.
You are right to be very wary of Auditors ability to override management assertions in regard to intangible assets Davexl, as they are paid handsome fees by the company itself so simply cannot be truly independent. The FMA is woefully underfunded and under resourced.
There may be some deep value here in the N.Z. operation but I wouldn't trust this lot to manage their way through to making that value earn a decent return for shareholders. Management and the board might do okay...shareholders...not so much. To the best of my knowledge the company has never formally acknowledged they're making debt repayments because they're required to do so but I suspect that's what is really happening and the financiers are the ones really calling the shots here.
Writing down intangible assets to their real true and fair value would decimate the balance sheet and we can't have that can we...
Last edited by Beagle; 13-01-2020 at 12:46 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
I'm thinking (hoping may be a better description) that there is going to be a fairly large demand for glass with the rebuilding in Australia that will follow the bushfires. Hopefully MPG management will recognise this and be ready for the upswing in demand. Who knows this could be the making of the Australian side of the business....
I think you are grasping at straws here ....the tin pot outfit that Metro has over there won’t be benefiting like you think.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
...... after announcement of only some New competition coming up. Still don't understand fully how that One announcement has affected the share price so much, for an event so far in the future.....
I haven't looked at this one for a while, but wasn't the new competitor on the horizon being financed by the big industry customers who were heartily dissatisfied with the service they were getting from metroglass?
I haven't looked at this one for a while, but wasn't the new competitor on the horizon being financed by the big industry customers who were heartily dissatisfied with the service they were getting from metroglass?
Haven't seen any direct evidence of that but would welcome any Metroglass insiders comment to salve my own suspicions. Perhaps Metro was gouging the market somewhat in NZ as the incumbent player?
Last edited by Davexl; 13-01-2020 at 01:10 PM.
All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford
Haven't seen any direct evidence of that but would welcome any Metroglass insiders comment to salve my own suspicions. Perhaps Metro was gouging the market somewhat in NZ as the incumbent player?
APL apparently still on track to start later this year
Metro did say >10% of NZ sales at risk of being lost
What did beagle say about management assessment of things
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
APL apparently still on track to start later this year
Metro did say >10% of NZ sales at risk of being lost
What did beagle say about management assessment of things
From the last AGM, they commented about reduced staff turnover in the Aust operation and from memory improved time to delivery in NZ. They were also in the middle of commissioning new plant in Tasmania and rejigging production in Victoria (which used to feed Tasmania). Subsequently, they lost their leading manager coordinating their Aust production operations and had lost their Group CFO also. Seems to be a gross shortage of Management & Engineering talent IMO and the Board is simply a mouthing Deadweight.
The following were some 'hypothetical' comments made to an 'internal' party subsequently...
"Since purchasing these shares and I have xxx,000 approx., I have watched them crash thru the 80 cent mark down to under 40c, and since then down to 33.5 cents as of today.
I am absolutely furious, along with your remaining shareholders.
I have watched you all at the ASM making ongoing excuses for the poor performance of AGG, with no tangible sign of a turnaround strategy or of the defined milestones to achieving same.
If I could have liquidated my shareholding I would have, but it is a 'significant' shareholding and there are basically no buyers in the market, and no signs of any significant "share" ownership among the executives or board members themselves.
Further, no one believes the value of intangible assets is anything like reflecting the value of your business overall in its current state. No one believes your auditors.
Recently 2 of your senior executives have resigned, including your CFO.
It is not a pretty picture is it?
MPG if it still is a going concern at all, needs to fix its credibility problems and get its investor relations messaging right by reporting on any AGG progress milestones present and demonstrating it has a competitive plan to deal with this overly fearsome opposition coming in two years or so.
I was absolutely dumbfounded when your share price collapsed from 80c to 35c, all because of a little competition in the marketplace. Is MPG held in such low regard, in such poor reputation by its customers that it cannot justify its own share price at 80c ?
Now at 33.5 cents what has MPG to say?
Defend yourself, get your executives and board members to purchase actual shares, find another substantial shareholder like ACC to back you, and advertise that fact in the marketplace. And fix your Australian problems before they fix you. "
All science is either Physics or stamp collecting - Ernest Rutherford
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Originally Posted by CD_CHCH
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