While the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on construction activity in New Zealand and Australia are uncertain,
Metroglass expects a significant decline in economic activity for at least the next 12 to 24 months. The base case
estimate for 9 month lagged NZ residential consents is for a marginal fall in FY21 and a c. 20% decline in FY22, before
a c. 5% recovery in FY23. A 20% decline in detached residential housing starts in our key Australian markets in FY21
(non-lagged) is also expected, followed by a 9% recovery in FY22.
Probably the most sobering sector assessment I have seen so far, but hey - they might well be right. What does surprise me is that they don't seem to expect any structural changes to the building sector. I am wondering what the increase of tiny houses, prefab houses and similar might do to their business? As well, what its the story with this new big competitor who must be coming online soon?
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
Australia had to come right sooner or later. Dividends dont worry me, profits are what count.
Debt reduction equivalent to 8 cents per share. Under priced at 22 cents in my opinion.
Last edited by bottomfeeder; 19-06-2020 at 10:33 AM.
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