MPG - Metro Glass

[Davo039]

Simon Mander said "Our focus on cash generation and debt reduction over the
past two years has enabled us to make good progress towards our signalled
target of 1.5x net debt to 12 months rolling EBITDA, which we now anticipate
achieving in the first half of FY22.

Hi, I haven't posted on this thread before but this is the biggest takeout of the announcement.We have watched a company that has until recently is a consistent underachiever over promising. I like the fact that the announcements are conservative and outline the risks the company faces ie new competitor completion, inflationary issues and Covid. We are informed.

The biggest takeout is however the above. With net debt circa 49 yr end and a multiple of 1.5 times rolling EDITDA to Net Debt by June. what are the numbers? If debt reduces say 5m in a quarter to 40m then EDITDA must be circa 27m.Am I right and how does this compare to previous years? Any comments

[Rawz]

On reflection I decided to sell out entirely of MPG. Half yesterday at $0.44 and the rest this morning at $0.415. It has been an amazing ride since I first purchased last year at $0.157.

Metro has done a fantastic job reducing debt over the past couple of years. Bright future ahead in a normalized covid free world. And the long term investors will be rewarded with some juicy dividends. Personally it isn't part of my investment strategy to wait for that.

GLTAH

[Balance]

On reflection I decided to sell out entirely of MPG. Half yesterday at $0.44 and the rest this morning at $0.415. It has been an amazing ride since I first purchased last year at $0.157.

Metro has done a fantastic job reducing debt over the past couple of years. Bright future ahead in a normalized covid free world. And the long term investors will be rewarded with some juicy dividends. Personally it isn't part of my investment strategy to wait for that.

GLTAH

Well done!

[winner69]

Things looked promising when share price hit 45/46 last month after the update

But been down hill since .... Metro still unloved and apparently unwanted

One day I might be back in

[Rawz]

If it gets down to $0.33 ill be back in.

[Ferdinand the Bull]

Things looked promising when share price hit 45/46 last month after the update

But been down hill since .... Metro still unloved and apparently unwanted

One day I might be back in

Good call Winner. Unloved indeed.

As a long suffering shareholder, I think anyone who has stayed with MPG through all this is deserving of reward in the next life !! It has been a very unusual situation, in that MPG has maintained operating profitability . the problem has been a Balance Sheet primarily comprised of debt and intangible assets. When the Board finally realized the financial position was unsustainable , instead of acting quickly to fix it , they decided to try and claw their way out of the hole, which was always going to take multiple years to achieve.

What worries me now, is that as quickly as Debt is coming down, now their gross margin is coming under pressure ( competition / costs ). Will debt ever get below 1.5x EBITDA ?? ( yes it will, but its getting progressively harder ) Mander's first priority is to maintain profitability, because without that Debt will not come down, and the valuation cannot recover.

The latest announcement kicked the can down the road for another 4 months .......... I can't see the share price firming until Dividends resume. So, we continue to wait.

This is my first contribution, so be kind.

[Rawz]

Nice first post Ferdinand and welcome to the forum. Good point re the dividends based on the 1.5x (or was it 2.5x?) ebitda ratio.

Often there are many guests browsing ST. I say make an account and contribute, it's better for all of us hearing different opinions whether you have been investing for decades or only started last March.

As for MPG. They were on track to go to 60 cents if it wasn't for the last announcement which was really a surprise, at least in my book. I was expecting an announcement with a complete opposite theme tbh.. I.e. Australia results showing continued improvement with ++ ebit contribution and the always profitable NZ operations growing in line with the residential development boom.

Instead we got poor margins and no big rebound or catch up in the 2nd half vs 1st.

Shareholders could have exited portions of their holdings in the $40cent+ range. I recall after the announcement it may have even increased a cent for a few hours for some reason... Then the shareprice didnt really move for the next day or so. And ever since has been slowly drafting down. Depending on your holding size of course potentially could have sold low mid 40cents

[Leemsip]

Hey Rawz. I also exited 80% or so of my holding on the announcement between 41 and 37 cents. Whenever I find myself dreading the next announcement its probably time to get out.

Disappointed on cash generation in H2 and worried this would continue. I dont see the shipping issues getting better fast. I was pretty crushed by the announcement as I had such high hopes for the company. Still got a small stake so.......

[Rawz]

"Crushed by the announcement" is exactly how I felt, Leemsip!

I had posted frequent bullish posts on this thread and debated against some other posters who pointed out that MPG was a dog. These other posters had thousands of posts and reputation up their sleeves. Guess they were right in the end lol. Hence the reputation.

Why MPG didnt pass on the increased shipping costs to the customers..?? Is the whole industry in a race to the bottom or what?

Oh well you got to know when to get out and glad I did. Only thing that annoys me is i didnt triple my original investment at $0.157 per share, have to settle for 2.5x+. I could be one of the few lucky punters to have made some really gains on MPG?

MPG will forever be on my watchlist thou. They could get it right one day. Still a takeover target, surely

[Leemsip]

Im not sure I would buy in again. My buy in was mostly between 25-28c, so made out ok. Had mentally banked 60c per share already though so still gutted.
Felt a bit stink about my bullish posts too..... as it didnt pan out. Has put me off posting here in general actually.