MPG - Metro Glass

[nomis]

This company has systemic major issues. We built our house and had over $100 K of double glazing installed. 50 percent had to be removed and replaced due to scratches, imperfections and some of these were on the inside of the glass. 3 large sliders had to be replaced three times. And this is just one house. The quality control is appalling and I can’t see this company surviving.

I've met and dealt with some senior management around a project on the Pauanui water ways, 120k worth of glass. Cut and delivered. All incorrect project was then delayed for month waiting for glass. Arrived and same thing around 30% was scratched and or damaged in some way. All taken back again. Re cut and re delivered and installed. Project manager then had to follow up for a invoice to pay it. 3 months later it arrived. If this is a indication of management start to finish then it s a good indication of of the systems in house. To throw fuel on fire I'm a share holder (stupid me I know), and during all of this happening I had a sever case of road rage with one of their drivers on a one way bridge near Waihi that almost killed me and the kids.

[Rawz]

One word- sad.

Why is the financial impact of this lockdown "significantly greater than the April 2002 lockdown"??? Most businesses know the drill so if anything it should be better as the business has covid processes and policy in place. At least on par.. not significantly worse..

This isnt a covid issue. This company has major issues from the bottom of the business to the top. We have seen further decline in margins which has been the story for the last couple of years.

Look at Shareguy and nomis posts above. Anecdotal evidence of course but adds to this sad story being told today.

The SP of $0.385 looks good for sellers.. i would be selling at this level after reading this announcement.

[nomis]

One word- sad.

Why is the financial impact of this lockdown "significantly greater than the April 2002 lockdown"??? Most businesses know the drill so if anything it should be better as the business has covid processes and policy in place. At least on par.. not significantly worse..

This isnt a covid issue. This company has major issues from the bottom of the business to the top. We have seen further decline in margins which has been the story for the last couple of years.

Look at Shareguy and nomis posts above. Anecdotal evidence of course but adds to this sad story being told today.

The SP of $0.385 looks good for sellers.. i would be selling at this level after reading this announcement.

No offence intended to any staff, But from what insiders have told me - its stuck in the 90's and trying to operate in such way. Not liquid in the way they adapt, change or operate and run a protectionist style of management, Rather than share and extend knowledge with fresh young blood. IM selling out today - 60% loss after dividend payments in the past. Ouch

[BlackPeter]

Group H1 EBIT is currently expected to be circa. $10m below last year is a nice way of saying we are essentially BREAKING EVEN in H1

Sneaky eh

Last year first HY Ebit was $12.8m. If we take the $10m off, than there are still $2.8m left.

I know, not a lot, but still better than break even ;

[winner69]

Last year first HY Ebit was $12.8m. If we take the $10m off, than there are still $2.8m left.

I know, not a lot, but still better than break even ;

Another downgrade to come

Even so EBIT $2.8m is stuff all …and take the I and T off essentially break even

[Balance]

Another downgrade to come

Even so EBIT $2.8m is stuff all …and take the I and T off essentially break even

Back into the downgrade cycle for MPG.

[winner69]

Back into the downgrade cycle for MPG.

Maybe not even breakeven …possibly a loss

[BlackPeter]

...

The SP of $0.385 looks good for sellers.. i would be selling at this level after reading this announcement.

Who knows ...

Didn't they open their Auckland factory some weeks ago during level 4 to produce essential glass for the building industry? I guess I can't vouch for their current management, but they used to have (a couple of years ago) quite modern cutting facilities, a thought through logistical process and a motivated and well trained team.

Obviously - other than you am I not privy to the future SP development and I don't make any buy or sell recommendations either. However - one thing I did learn during my investment years is that panic selling based on rumours is as bad as panic buying based on rumours.

Our building industry clearly needs glass (s. above) ... and the competition will suffer the same as Metro Glass under the supply problems. I'd expect margins to go up under these conditions, and didn't they say that they increased storage reacting to the supply issues?

Unless they scratch all their glass, a full storage should be an advantage in months to come.

[Rawz]

Who knows ...

Didn't they open their Auckland factory some weeks ago during level 4 to produce essential glass for the building industry? I guess I can't vouch for their current management, but they used to have (a couple of years ago) quite modern cutting facilities, a thought through logistical process and a motivated and well trained team.

Obviously - other than you am I not privy to the future SP development and I don't make any buy or sell recommendations either. However - one thing I did learn during my investment years is that panic selling based on rumours is as bad as panic buying based on rumours.

Our building industry clearly needs glass (s. above) ... and the competition will suffer the same as Metro Glass under the supply problems. I'd expect margins to go up under these conditions, and didn't they say that they increased storage reacting to the supply issues?

Unless they scratch all their glass, a full storage should be an advantage in months to come.

But BP this is clearly a continuation of the woes they have had for sometime. If I read an announcement that is bad news following on from the previous bad news announcement then it is not panic selling. It would rather be making an informed decision to sell out of a company not making any progress.

Building industry clearly needs glass.. has needed glass for the last decade. W69 posted a graph not so long ago showing if MPG sales had tracked the industry growth then sales would be twice what they are.

MPG has consistently lost market share and margins have been dropping since 2017. GP margin probably going to be sub 40% this year.

Looks grim. Just my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

But BP this is clearly a continuation of the woes they have had for sometime. If I read an announcement that is bad news following on from the previous bad news announcement then it is not panic selling. It would rather be making an informed decision to sell out of a company not making any progress.

Building industry clearly needs glass.. has needed glass for the last decade. W69 posted a graph not so long ago showing if MPG sales had tracked the industry growth then sales would be twice what they are.

MPG has consistently lost market share and margins have been dropping since 2017. GP margin probably going to be sub 40% this year.

Looks grim. Just my opinion.

The post I responded to said that 38.5 cents is a good price for sellers (which was the daily minimum). Later in the day price went back to 40.5 and now it is 39.5.

38.5 cents clearly was not a good time to sell, but to buy.

Looking at the bigger picture ... I agree that MPG has by now a long (though not uninterrupted) history to disappoint shareholders. This explains why SP used to be above $2 and is now 40 cents (give or take).

I think that there is at this stage some merit to hold them in a "dogs of the NZX strategy" (similar to FBU a year ago). But sure, things always can get worse ... or better.

Panic selling is if holders run without analysis of the situation and without considering all known facts. You know - this bang in the air and the horses just stampede whether this makes sense or not. It is possible to panic at any time, no matter whether it is the first or any subsequent negative announcement or just a random bang.

Anyway - you may or may not be right related to the long term development ... I was just stating that panic selling is rarely right, and I was correct :