Yes... Each to their own.. .. Out !!! And what does that mean !!!...
At a premium of course.. :-)) Made a few Bucks.. ..
DYOR..
LOL - too much vodka? Who knows what the Ukrainians put into your drinks ...
BTW - latest building stats is out and actually -- it is pointing up earlier in the year than I thought.
In May 2017, building consents were issued for 2,794 new dwellings:
2,039 houses
495 townhouses, flats, and units
137 retirement village units
123 apartments. The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 7.0 percent.
The trend for the number of new dwellings consented is increasing. It reached a 12-year high in mid-2016, but decreased towards the end of the year.
In the year ended May 2017, 30,645 new dwellings were consented – up 8.0 percent from the May 2016 year.
Agree - looking just 2 years back would be a bit thin. However if you go 6 years back (basically to the start of their pro forma reports for their listing), than they have today a (6yr) CAGR of 13.5% ... and if you add the forward predictions the (9yr-) CAGR is still above 10.5%. Backward PE (the same 6 years back) is 18 - and forward PE 10.7; Looks like a solidly growing company in an industry with lots of potential to me ... but each to their own.
I'm yet to be convinced this is a growth company. Sure it has seen growth from 2007 where double glazing became more or less compulsory and the building sector dragged itself out of the doldrums. Consents peaked last year but the industry can't sustain those peaks. There may be a small benefit from the latest safety glass requirements but this isn't growth. It's a cyclical business that should be a good dividend payer in the good times. Without further acquisitions and diversification where is the growth going to come from?
... as indicated - at this stage it looks like an early spring. Growth started roughly one to two months earlier than what the model would have predicted. so far it was normally June being the low point ... and so far (unless the June numbers turn South again) it looks like April was already the local minimum. We shall see ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
BP - looking forward (considering the 9 month lag MPG talk about) what does the darker line looking bit flat mean
So far it feels that the SP is closer correlated to the orders predicted (based on building consents) than to the number of windows manufactured in any particular month. Makes sense to me - the markets are looking ahead ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
I'm yet to be convinced this is a growth company. Sure it has seen growth from 2007 where double glazing became more or less compulsory and the building sector dragged itself out of the doldrums. Consents peaked last year but the industry can't sustain those peaks. There may be a small benefit from the latest safety glass requirements but this isn't growth. It's a cyclical business that should be a good dividend payer in the good times. Without further acquisitions and diversification where is the growth going to come from?
Where is the growth coming from? Lets see ...
There is still a shocking number of single glazed houses in NZ. Power prices go up. Rentals might be more difficult to rent out when full disclosure is enforced (I never would rent an apartment with single glazing anyway);
The number of building permits is still rising - every year since 2008 and the housing shortage keeps increasing. New homes need new windows;
actually - there is even some hedging if the market dips: in this case buildings with double glazing will sell so much better than the single glazed junk still on offer today. In a buyers market many sellers are likely to double glaze their houses - just to distinguish their listing from the rest ...
glass does not burn ... maybe another good reason to use lots of glass in high rises instead of combustible cladding (like the Brits seem to do).
modern industrial and commercial buildings use lots of speciality glass - have a look e.g. at the new buildings in Christchurch. Still lots of empty building sites waiting to be filled with further examples of "glass architecture"
Last edited by BlackPeter; 30-06-2017 at 01:02 PM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
There is still a shocking number of single glazed houses in NZ. Power prices go up. Rentals might be more difficult to rent out when full disclosure is enforced (I never would rent an apartment with single glazing anyway);
The number of building permits is still rising - every year since 2008 and the housing shortage keeps increasing. New homes need new windows;
actually - there is even some hedging if the market dips: in this case buildings with double glazing will sell so much better than the single glazed junk still on offer today. In a buyers market many sellers are likely to double glaze their houses - just to distinguish their listing from the rest ...
glass does not burn ... maybe another good reason to use lots of glass in high rises instead of combustible cladding (like the Brits seem to do).
modern industrial and commercial buildings use lots of speciality glass - have a look e.g. at the new buildings in Christchurch. Still lots of empty building sites waiting to be filled with further examples of "glass architecture"
I don't mean to suggest we're going to see a downturn in the next few years. I'm saying consents are unlikely to increase much past their peak and currently they have backed off a little from last year.
The rush you speak of to convert single glazing will barely ripple the bottom line if it happens at all. Without government intervention I doubt it will happen.
I don't see a boom in commercial 'glass architecture' that will translate to 'continued growth'.
It's a sound company which currently should be making hay while the sun shines. There should be a few more years of sustained production ahead...
So far it feels that the SP is closer correlated to the orders predicted (based on building consents) than to the number of windows manufactured in any particular month. Makes sense to me - the markets are looking ahead ...
I still reckon number of consent will decline by 10% to 27,000 odd over the next year / 18 months ....and if the government gets their act together recover in 2019.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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Originally Posted by janner
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