MPG - Metro Glass

[Beagle]

Attachment 9102
Relaxed possum, chillaxing on a Friday afternoon

[crighton100]

I would have to say at todays price [$1.14 at present],you would have to be bonkers not to buy in.As a retired old fart I am always looking for a dividend yield much higher than bank interest [& have bought more today]Risk is a funny old thing,but here you have a company that I think has overstreched itself,but really is a sound business with not a lot of serious competition [windows are windows & will always be wanted & now with all the noise & smaller sections & apartments,everyone wants quiet,so you have to have double glazing].So no matter how bad they are doing at present I cannot see them going to the wall & like they say the coming year will be no worse than the last [hopefully they have learn a few things] & their dividend [even if it had to fall a little] is far more superior to the greedy banks.

[Leftfield]

I would have to say at todays price [$1.14 at present],you would have to be bonkers not to buy in.As a retired old fart I am always looking for a dividend yield much higher than bank interest [& have bought more today]Risk is a funny old thing,but here you have a company that I think has overstreched itself,but really is a sound business with not a lot of serious competition [windows are windows & will always be wanted & now with all the noise & smaller sections & apartments,everyone wants quiet,so you have to have double glazing].So no matter how bad they are doing at present I cannot see them going to the wall & like they say the coming year will be no worse than the last [hopefully they have learn a few things] & their dividend [even if it had to fall a little] is far more superior to the greedy banks.

MPG better than money in 'the greedy banks?"

As Brian Gaynor said on 12 August 2017, "MPG's total return, including dividends has been negative 5.4% since listing 3 yrs ago while the NZX top 50 has appreciated 51% over the same period."

[BlackPeter]

MPG better than money in 'the greedy banks?"

As Brian Gaynor said on 12 August 2017, "MPG's total return, including dividends has been negative 5.4% since listing 3 yrs ago while the NZX top 50 has appreciated 51% over the same period."

I think you are disingenuous here. Nobody investing today would buy based on past returns - there is often even a negative correlation between past and future returns. Forward looking I would agree with crighton that in all likelihood MPG's return if bought at current price levels will be far superior to the return of any bank account ...

[Beagle]

squashed-possums-1.jpg
Oh dear oh dear..playing possum has its risks !
Represents just 1.4% of my portfolio at today's closing price and pretty relieved its not any more.

[percy]

I think you are disingenuous here. Nobody investing today would buy based on past returns - there is often even a negative correlation between past and future returns. Forward looking I would agree with crighton that in all likelihood MPG's return if bought at current price levels will be far superior to the return of any bank account ...

This quote sums up my feelings towards MPG.:
"Those who can not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

[winner69]

Jeez - close at 113 - the low of the day

And then a 2 million shares deal after the close at 110

So the word 'flat' causes a 19% drop in 2 days ...not good

That 2 million sell might signal capitulation - if so it's all upwards from here ...and maybe rather quick as well.

Next week will be exciting (for some)

[Beagle]

Jeez - close at 113 - the low of the day

And then a 2 million shares deal after the close at 110

So the word 'flat' causes a 19% drop in 2 days ...not good

That 2 million sell might signal capitulation - if so it's all upwards from here ...and maybe rather quick as well.

Next week will be exciting (for some)

All seems like a little bit of an overreaction seeing as they said first half profit would be in line with last year which was a good first half and then they're looking for efficiencies in the second half, which they definitely should be doing anyway as its bizarre how such strong sales growth in recent years hasn't translated into bottom line EPS growth.
They also said they working with external advisors or words to that effect regarding an efficiency drive and new plant coming on this year would lead to manufacturing efficieineces from FY19.
That's somehow worth a really good proper beating to the SP...go figure ? Reckon Milford probably the seller of that 2 million at $1.10, Gaynor seems especially disillusioned.

[winner69]

All seems like a little bit of an overreaction seeing as they said first half profit would be in line with last year which was a good first half and then they're looking for efficiencies in the second half, which they definitely should be doing anyway as its bizarre how such strong sales growth in recent years hasn't translated into bottom line EPS growth.
They also said they working with external advisors or words to that effect regarding an efficiency drive and new plant coming on this year would lead to manufacturing efficieineces from FY19.
That's somehow worth a really good proper beating to the SP...go figure ? Reckon Milford probably the seller of that 2 million at $1.10, Gaynor seems especially disillusioned.

Flat is bad though Beagle - means NZ will be (lot) less than last year when you take into account the extra 5 months from Australia

Metro have been driving efficiencies for years - need to stay in the game - so current initiatives are just a continuation of those. Sounds good though in a presentation.

The historical finances most punters are looking at are from 2012 - only a half cycle and the better half of the cycle at that. Revenues were about $165m in 2008 at the top if the previous cycle and $214m (in NZ) in 2017 - one could say that top to top cycle growth has been about 2.5% pa (say in line with economic growth). Further more EBIT was similar (if not more) back then.

Glossy brochures and slick presentations are often just that

Nobody in the industry could believe that Catalyst paid over $350m for Metro back in 2006. One joke in the industry was that it had toi be totally over the top because even Fletchers walked away at that price.

Market cap today about $200m (EV of $300m) which looks pretty reasonable

[Lola]

[QUOTE=Beagle;680365]All seems like a little bit of an overreaction seeing as they said first half profit would be in line with last year which was a good first half and then they're looking for efficiencies in the second half, which they definitely should be doing anyway as its bizarre how such strong sales growth in recent years hasn't translated into bottom line EPS growth.
They also said they working with external advisors or words to that effect regarding an efficiency drive and new plant coming on this year would lead to manufacturing efficieineces from FY19.
That's somehow worth a really good proper beating to the SP...go figure ? Reckon Milford probably the seller of that 2 million at $1.10, Gaynor seems especially disillusioned.[/QUOTE


Too right Mr BG is upset
He hates getting misled (read dorked).

But why would anyone invest in an IPO from a PE seller?

NZ market is such a soft (read dumb) touch .

But mr G should stop whinging and moaning when things don't quite work out. It's called risk. Judgement is intuitive. It's not a given.