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28-09-2017, 11:52 AM
#861
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
Do people know something we don't?
Possible but directors buying should give us some assurance.
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28-09-2017, 04:47 PM
#862
Originally Posted by James108
Possible but directors buying should give us some assurance.
as does Milford still holding 12.6 million or 6.8% of the company
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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28-09-2017, 04:50 PM
#863
Mmh - Milford reduced their holding and still have a lot to sell.
Must be time for me to eat a bit of humble pie - @bull, so far you have been right predicting the sp trend of this company - and this despite your name .
I reduced my holding over the last couple of days as well (but still holding some). While my fundamental assessment of the company has not significantly changed (i.e. I still believe that there will be at some stage a bargain to pick up) does it not make sense to fight the market. One of these things with MPG is ... if & when they start to tank at significant resistance levels (like the MA200 or now at $1), they tended to do that in the past quite fast.
Is this the bottom? The $1 so far seems to hold quite well, the spring rise might still come (it was in 2015 quite late as well), the new government (whoever this will be) might still refuel the building fire ... but as indicated, I didn't wanted to expose the whole lot to further down risk and bought some SML instead - soothing my hurting investor soul (talk about instant gratification ). Still - I will keep some cash on the side prepared to increase my MPG holding again if the indicators start to fire ...
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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28-09-2017, 06:01 PM
#864
Bit of humble pie is good for the soul from time to time. I agree that technically this looks like a dog's breakfast gone awfully wrong.
Until the technical's show signs of life this looks like continuing to really test shareholders patience. I've had enough of this shard of glass in my paw and stopped the possibility of any further bleeding today. If it bounces from here I don't really care as I think this is an extremely competitive cyclical sector and I am no longer convinced that this is a space I want to be in. You can't win every time...the trick is to know when to cut your losses. Milford still have an absolute ton of scrip to sell so good luck to remaining shareholders. Will invest these funds SUM where else where I have far more confidence in the long run tailwinds driving future profit growth.I reckon any MPG shareholder would be VERY brave to bet this will outperform SUM over the long run.
Last edited by Beagle; 28-09-2017 at 06:05 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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28-09-2017, 07:18 PM
#865
Originally Posted by Beagle
Bit of humble pie is good for the soul from time to time. I agree that technically this looks like a dog's breakfast gone awfully wrong.
Until the technical's show signs of life this looks like continuing to really test shareholders patience. I've had enough of this shard of glass in my paw and stopped the possibility of any further bleeding today. If it bounces from here I don't really care as I think this is an extremely competitive cyclical sector and I am no longer convinced that this is a space I want to be in. You can't win every time...the trick is to know when to cut your losses. Milford still have an absolute ton of scrip to sell so good luck to remaining shareholders. Will invest these funds SUM where else where I have far more confidence in the long run tailwinds driving future profit growth.I reckon any MPG shareholder would be VERY brave to bet this will outperform SUM over the long run.
Tempted to sell out too but to me the market cap of this company seems ridiculous if they get similar results to H1 2016 which is our last indication from them.
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29-09-2017, 10:59 AM
#866
BlackPeter and Beagle capitulated andJeremy wavering on the edge - time to buy
WOW - August building consents data awesome
Building Consents Issued: August 2017 – Media Release
Monthly building consents for new homes reached a 13-year-high in August 2017, driven by a spike in apartments and retirement village units in Auckland, Stats NZ said today.
Across New Zealand, 3,166 new homes were consented in August 2017 – up 12 percent from August 2016, and the most for any month since June 2004 (when 3,447 new homes were consented).
Awesome news - Metro going to be busy as (if they put windows in retirement villages and apartments that is)
Last edited by winner69; 29-09-2017 at 11:01 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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29-09-2017, 11:26 AM
#867
Originally Posted by winner69
BlackPeter and Beagle capitulated andJeremy wavering on the edge - time to buy
WOW - August building consents data awesome Building Consents Issued: August 2017 – Media Release
Monthly building consents for new homes reached a 13-year-high in August 2017, driven by a spike in apartments and retirement village units in Auckland, Stats NZ said today.
Across New Zealand, 3,166 new homes were consented in August 2017 – up 12 percent from August 2016, and the most for any month since June 2004 (when 3,447 new homes were consented).
Awesome news - Metro going to be busy as (if they put windows in retirement villages and apartments that is)
I decided I'm holding on for the ride. Realistically how much lower can they go? 90 cents? I feel like there's not much more for me to lose given this is a dividend paying stock with a strong market position. They still have 51% market share in NZ and it's not like consents are going to continue their decline given the housing shortage. Bar a disaster in Australia it might just be a poor performing stock trying to find a bottom before settling around $1.
Still big learning lesson for me not to buy a stock in a downtrend that his historically underperformed. I still have hope this recovers quite significantly if the H1 results are decent (clearly the market is expecting a worse result than signalled).
Milford is a short term worry but maybe the sooner they're out the better.
Last edited by JeremyALD; 29-09-2017 at 11:29 AM.
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29-09-2017, 11:43 AM
#868
Originally Posted by JeremyALD
I decided I'm holding on for the ride. Realistically how much lower can they go? 90 cents? I feel like there's no much more for me to lose anymore given this is a dividend paying stock with a strong market position. They still have 51% market share in NZ and it's not like consents are going to continue their decline given the housing shortage. Bar a disaster in Australia it might just be a poor performing stock trying to find a bottom before settling around $1.
Still big learning lesson for me not to buy a stock in a downtrend that his historically underperformed. I still have hope this recover quite significantly if the H1 results are decent (clearly the market is expecting a worse result than signalled).
Milford is a short term worry but maybe the sooner they're out the better.
Tricky decision and I wish you well. The risk is twofold; a.) The risk of further declines eroding your hard earned and, b.) The cost of lost opportunities if you had sold and put your money into other up-trending stocks.
Stocks don't always either go up or down, they can also go sideways... for years...and years. This can also reduce your returns. So think carefully about locking your money into a non-performing stock.
ps I'm posting this because I made the same mistake.....I locked money into PEB for a year or two before I wised up (thanks to Balance,) and switched to a mix of ATM and THL.
Good Luck with your decision!
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29-09-2017, 11:53 AM
#869
Originally Posted by Left field
Tricky decision and I wish you well. The risk is twofold; a.) The risk of further declines eroding your hard earned and, b.) The cost of lost opportunities if you had sold and put your money into other up-trending stocks.
Stocks don't always either go up or down, they can also go sideways... for years...and years. This can also reduce your returns. So think carefully about locking your money into a non-performing stock.
ps I'm posting this because I made the same mistake.....I locked money into PEB for a year or two before I wised up (thanks to Balance,) and switched to a mix of ATM and THL.
Good Luck with your decision!
Thanks for the advice. Ive been pondering this myself. Luckily THL is my number 1 position, but I've been wanting to invest in NWF and have no spare cash. One could also argue they are under performing but I'm impressed with the direction of the new board and potential.
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29-09-2017, 12:51 PM
#870
announcement soon should see 90c i reckon everyone downgrading property now maybe till next yr so they should have a bad report?
one step ahead of the herd
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