MPG - Metro Glass

[Louloubell]

Talk about a share price being punished!

[Beagle]

Its not really a company I follow BP but I note even with the 17% decline in SP today that puts it on a PE of 14 based on last years earnings and investors need to consider if this year's earnings will be lower, (it appears they will be slightly).

On the other hand FBU is on a historic PE of 15 and investors need to weigh up the relative outlook's of each company. Based on a quick and dirty comparison I'd say this mornings fall, (so far), appears fully warranted and quite possibly investors pain isn't finished yet by any means.

They call themselves a growth business in the NZX announcement... Hmmm...growth or cyclical ?, you folks be the judge.

[Arbroath]

Its not really a company I follow BP but I note even with the 17% decline in SP today that puts it on a PE of 14 based on last years earnings and investors need to consider if this year's earnings will be lower, (it appears they will be slightly).

On the other hand FBU is on a historic PE of 15 and investors need to weigh up the relative outlook's of each company. Based on a quick and dirty comparison I'd say this mornings fall, (so far), appears fully warranted and quite possibly investors pain isn't finished yet by any means.

They call themselves a growth business in the NZX announcement... Hmmm...growth or cyclical ?, you folks be the judge.

I'll be blunter Roger - I think MPG is a very average business that is still overpriced and if you think avbout its across the cycle earnings is worth maybe $1.10-$1.30 a share. Not something I'd invest in because in great times for them they are not performing well enough - clearly a cyclical even if they are acquisitive and on that basis for me a PE of 10-12 is warranted at best. On 12x last years earnings they are c. $1.33 max.

[Beagle]

I'll be blunter Roger - I think MPG is a very average business that is still overpriced and if you think avbout its across the cycle earnings is worth maybe $1.10-$1.30 a share. Not something I'd invest in because in great times for them they are not performing well enough - clearly a cyclical even if they are acquisitive and on that basis for me a PE of 10-12 is warranted at best. On 12x last years earnings they are c. $1.33 max.

I agree 100% (but was trying to be a bit more diplomatic for once lol). Sales are growing for sure but by my reckoning the fact of the matter is astute well managed companies make acquisitions on attractive fundamentals which are EPS accretive immediately whereas average companies can take years to achieve the economies of scale and synergies they're looking for. Comes down to the quality of management and capabilities of the team handling acquisitions. I'd give them a C- at best based on their track record to date.

[Beagle]

Its not really a company I follow BP but I note even with the 17% decline in SP today that puts it on a PE of 14 based on last years earnings and investors need to consider if this year's earnings will be lower, (it appears they will be slightly).

On the other hand FBU is on a historic PE of 15 and investors need to weigh up the relative outlook's of each company. Based on a quick and dirty comparison I'd say this mornings fall, (so far), appears fully warranted and quite possibly investors pain isn't finished yet by any means.

They call themselves a growth business in the NZX announcement... Hmmm...growth or cyclical ?, you folks be the judge.

I'll be blunter Roger - I think MPG is a very average business that is still overpriced and if you think avbout its across the cycle earnings is worth maybe $1.10-$1.30 a share. Not something I'd invest in because in great times for them they are not performing well enough - clearly a cyclical even if they are acquisitive and on that basis for me a PE of 10-12 is warranted at best. On 12x last years earnings they are c. $1.33 max.

Posted on 3 February 2017 when SP was $1.50. Somewhat ironic that since then the FBU fiasco has unfolded.
I think what's clear now is that both these companies are pure cyclical's and neither warrants a PE of more than an average of 10 across the business cycle.
Seeing as we're at the peak of the building cycle now, in my opinion a very strong case can be made for using a PE lower than 10 based on last years earnings at the cycle peak. On that basis both MPG and FBU have the potential for significant further falls.

Something of a brave call after this has fallen so far but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see $1.00 in the foreseeable future. Likewise I remain convinced that FBU's previous tendering process was systemically flawed and a significant number of their contracts won but yet to be commenced will involve work at materially compromised commercial profit margins, potentially further losses to come in future periods.
Why anyone would buy them above 10 times last years earnings, (circa $6.60) is completely lost on me especially seeing as like MPG, they're the building company that was always supposed to be on the improve. To early for a couple of Tui's ?

[winner69]

Hard to believe that it wasn't that long ago I bailed at over $2. A low of $1.30 was good buying eh

Market sure is a funny thing - as Mr P used to say 'the market giveth but the market also taketh away' - good judgement meant I avoided the taketh away bit this time around.

Still watching though - fundamentally a good business (and an interesting one)

[Beagle]

Hard to believe that it wasn't that long ago I bailed at over $2. A low of $1.30 was good buying eh

Market sure is a funny thing - as Mr P used to say 'the market giveth but the market also taketh away' - good judgement meant I avoided the taketh away bit this time around.

Still watching though - fundamentally a good business (and an interesting one)

Well played mate Wait for $1 and back in ? Please let me know when you decide to get back in, happy to back you're judgement on this one as you're the one with the runs on the board and you obviously know the company better than I do.

[sb9]

Hard to believe that it wasn't that long ago I bailed at over $2. A low of $1.30 was good buying eh

Market sure is a funny thing - as Mr P used to say 'the market giveth but the market also taketh away' - good judgement meant I avoided the taketh away bit this time around.

Still watching though - fundamentally a good business (and an interesting one)

As someone said on this thread where you the price be if they don't have big funds support??

[BlackPeter]

Well, at least until todays announcement - they certainly could call themselves a growth company ... just have a look at the revenue and EPS growth on 4traders http://www.4-traders.com/METRO-PERFO...72/financials/. CAGR of something like 25%;

So - they now said their growth is in line with forecasts, however the earnings are this year (as well due to one offs) not growing (and might slightly drop).

Does not sound so far like the end of the world to me, but I guess time will tell.

[winner69]

MPG just like FBU - should always be doing better (performance wise) ... especially when market conditions are going for them

And share price starting to reflect this

Pretty impressive factory if you ever get a chance to get a tour around it.