MPG - Metro Glass

[percy]

W69.
You remind me of the people who said the Titanic was unsinkable.

[winner69]

Awful presentation of the chart on the left. Should have done something with the scales to actually show what they wanted to. Very amatuerish

However just imagine the revenue line when consents hit the 35,000 they mention

Mind you they did say 'whilst market activity is difficult to predict, forecasters are typically estimating that residential dwelling consents in New Zealand will continue in a range of 28,500 to 35,000 per annum in the next 2‐3 years'

I said they would fall to 28,500 and I think it was BP who mentioned 35,000 so they have listened to both of us.

[winner69]

Share price on a roll today ....feeling chuffed

[JeremyALD]

I think the guidance should be pretty safe. They have surely learnt their lessons the hard way not to over promise and under deliver. Positively the Australian business appears to be sound

[winner69]

listened in to the analyst briefing ...luckily was able to do other stuff so wasn't an hour wasted

wow .....nothing can go wrong. It's so positive

comment of the day when answering how efficient are they going to get was 'we're looking at a 30% through put increase ....but don't go buidling that into your models just yet.'

jeez analysts gave them an easy time ...no hard questions. Probably ask those when they have the one to one discussions with the company and get the stuff more mortals dont get to hear about

[Beagle]

listened in to the analyst briefing ...luckily was able to do other stuff so wasn't an hour wasted

wow .....nothing can go wrong. It's so positive

comment of the day when answering how efficient are they going to get was 'we're looking at a 30% through put increase ....but don't go buidling that into your models just yet.'

jeez analysts gave them an easy time ...no hard questions. Probably ask those when they have the one to one discussions with the company and get the stuff more mortals dont get to hear about

Market seems to like the removal of uncertainty around FY earnings as is hopeful of matching last year. You would hope the strategic review yields some benefit.
Happy for you that you're making a buck at the minute, enjoy it while it lasts...bit like the sun in Auckland wandering along Pt Chev beach at lunchtime. A balmy early summers day at 25 degrees ! Watching the dog's enjoying playing I got to thinking every dog has its day. Wonder when it starts raining again ? 30 day MA is 97 cents. It'll be interesting to see if they can bust through that.

[winner69]

Beagle - even top end of guidance of $20.0m is less than last years normalised $21.3m

They tout this normalised crap so that is what we must compare it to

H2 as above post 7% to 24% less than last year.

But at least we know that so that’s good ...and F19 will be a boomer

And share price a buck on Wednesday if not before.

[silverblizzard888]

Beagle - even top end of guidance of $20.0m is less than last years normalised $21.3m

They tout this normalised crap so that is what we must compare it to

H2 as above post 7% to 24% less than last year.

But at least we know that so that’s good ...and F19 will be a boomer

And share price a buck on Wednesday if not before.

Not sure which they are comparing to entirely, though last years normalized profit did include:
- Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations 787k ]
-Cash flow hedges 1,075k
Minus that and we'd have 19.5 million normalised for actual operations, which current forecast will be inline with that.

[James108]

Beagle - even top end of guidance of $20.0m is less than last years normalised $21.3m

They tout this normalised crap so that is what we must compare it to

H2 as above post 7% to 24% less than last year.

But at least we know that so that’s good ...and F19 will be a boomer

And share price a buck on Wednesday if not before.

One assumes they are comparing npat to npat. Not normalised npat to npat.

[Beagle]

Beagle - even top end of guidance of $20.0m is less than last years normalised $21.3m

They tout this normalised crap so that is what we must compare it to

H2 as above post 7% to 24% less than last year.

But at least we know that so that’s good ...and F19 will be a boomer

And share price a buck on Wednesday if not before.

I would think as sure as night follows day that a comprehensive multi month review of all operations results in substantial restructuring charge in FY19 BUT almost as sure as day follows the night the market won't be that worried about that as they'll "buy" the line that normalized profit from operations in FY19 will be up on FY18 and then in FY20 they will have all their ducks in the row...or so they tell you. If it can break 97 cents (30 day MA level) and hold above there for three days that's the acid test as far as I am concerned that the downtrend could possibly be over. Too much risk for this hound until then.