MPG - Metro Glass

[carrom74]

Not a billionaire, but struggles on $400 million

Adding to his holding of 8.8million, Have a feeling obtained with float.
Montana spun out of Corporate Investments, which booked the largest corporate loss at that time,around $800 million early 1990's, Shares tanked to around .22c. So a few parallels with MPG

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU13...bottom-link-01

But ... he did make money in a company like pacific edge... also has few parallels with MPG...

[Leftfield]

Disc: Bought back in today @ 25c

Gutsy.... good luck with that..... on today's closing you are already in the green. Long may it last.

I'll be happy to watch from the sidelines.

[couta1]

MPG is my worst loss. Learnt heaps from this loss having previously ignored the ongoing advise from more experienced members here, "never buy a stock in a down trend".

I don't see any reversal of the current downtrend in the chart below. All the best & after all the downtrend has to reverse at some point.

Attachment 11036

Buying a stock in a downtrend is not a problem if it's the right stock, but not this one.

[RupertBear]

MPG is my worst loss. Learnt heaps from this loss having previously ignored the ongoing advise from more experienced members here, "never buy a stock in a down trend".

I don't see any reversal of the current downtrend in the chart below. All the best & after all the downtrend has to reverse at some point.

Attachment 11036

Currently my worst share as well. Bought on the downtrend and just watched it go down silly Bear. Have learned from it as well and wont repeat that mistake think our only hope is a TakeOver offer, but I hear hope isnt a good investment strategy so we might be stuffed for a while longer..

[dubya]

Gutsy.... good luck with that..... on today's closing you are already in the green. Long may it last.

I'll be happy to watch from the sidelines.

Buying a stock in a downtrend is not a problem if it's the right stock, but not this one.

Currently my worst share as well. Bought on the downtrend and just watched it go down silly Bear. Have learned from it as well and wont repeat that mistake think our only hope is a TakeOver offer, but I hear hope isnt a good investment strategy so we might be stuffed for a while longer..

MPG has been my absolute worst performer too . I wish I had sold out at about (from memory) $1.20 when a contributor to this forum who I respected (hardt) said he had sold, but I eventually got rid of them at a much much lower price than that!!

It was only a small purchase yesterday and a very small portfolio percentage, so I won't be losing any sleep if it doesn't do well. I hope not, and I could be repeating past mistakes, but time will tell I guess.

[moimoi]

Pile of debt that either needs to be refinanced or sheet-ed home to equity holders via cap raise

[Arbroath]

Pile of debt that either needs to be refinanced or sheet-ed home to equity holders via cap raise

Do you mean the debt pile that they've reduced by 30% in only 18 months from the businesses free cash flow? Agree they should've raised capital but that boat has sailed. I think they just need another 18 months of no dividends and the debt should be below $50m which is fine as long as the ebitda stays above $30m

[BlackPeter]

So - how good are analyst consensus predictions?

MPG had in January 2019 a (peak) share price of $0.56 and analysts (consensus) forecast for January 2020 was $0.47; The shareprice in January 2020 actually peaked at $0.28;

Analyst consensus predicted the SP to drop and this was correct, however they significantly underestimated the actual drop.

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in January 2019 a "Hold"(4.2/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share might slightly underperform the NZX (but no reason to Sell). This was not quite right, because MPG underperformed over the last 12 months the NZX50 by a woeful 70%.

Both analyst consensus prediction and recommendation have been ways too optimistic to be useful.

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts

9 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/9; analyst hitrate: 11%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 2/9; analyst hitrate: 22%

PS: current analyst consensus for MPG is a 41 cents share price in February 2021 combined with a recommendation of "HOLD" . Lets hope for holders sake that the analysts did learn from their mistakes :

[bottomfeeder]

Analysts have no better crystal ball than the rest of us provided you are reasonably informed about the news and financial information of the stock you are following. They pretend to have some insider knowledge of sorts (which would be strictly illegal) because they keep in touch with company officers. Analysts are for the Mum and Dad type investors who don't have the time or wherewithal to carry out their own research. After all their catchphrase is not timing the market but time in the market. This cliche is only an excuse for getting it wrong in the short term. Investing is a bit more complex than that.

[dubya]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/349072
On track to meet guidance and $15 mil paid off debt.
They seem to be getting themselves sorted out.
Surely....... finally on the right track.???!!!!
I certainly hope so. I guess time will tell.