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  1. #2241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scrunch View Post
    Managements current trading / outlook statements are going to be the key bit. The financials cover a period with very different conditions and could be all over the place. The half year period is April 2020 to Sept 2020. We know from the August announcement below that the L4 lockdown had basically taken out a months revenue and after four months there was still a $18.6m year on year decline.

    On the 21st Aug MPG provided a 4-month trading update. If not separately advised, it should be possible to tell what sales looked like in Aug/Sep from this announcement.
    One key question will be whether the refinanced and reduced debt facilities allow the payment of a dividend at the full year. They had agreed no dividends for FY21 during Covid but since then they’ve repaid $19m of debt and appear to have turned the corner. Debt/ebitda will be under the previous dividend reinstatement target of 1.5x at this half year result.

  2. #2242
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  3. #2243
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Filthy View Post
    What you reckon then filthy?

    Exceptional or just good or disappointing?


    This a bit of a worry .... 'New Zealand operations progressively and safely ramped up through May,
    with revenue and gross profit percentage from June to September remaining broadly in line with last year'

    No catch up
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2244
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    What you reckon then filthy?
    I think they get a pass.... no major surprises; which is good for MPG. a few more boring results like this would be great.
    ozzy business looks like its in much better shape and getting a bit of traction.
    A bit disappointed no forward guidance was given.... but reading the narrative, they seem to be cautiously optimistic don't they...

  5. #2245
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Filthy View Post
    I think they get a pass.... no major surprises; which is good for MPG. a few more boring results like this would be great.
    ozzy business looks like its in much better shape and getting a bit of traction.
    A bit disappointed no forward guidance was given.... but reading the narrative, they seem to be cautiously optimistic don't they...
    Might see 90 cents next year then
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #2246
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    Quote Originally Posted by Filthy View Post
    I think they get a pass.... no major surprises; which is good for MPG. a few more boring results like this would be great.
    ozzy business looks like its in much better shape and getting a bit of traction.
    A bit disappointed no forward guidance was given.... but reading the narrative, they seem to be cautiously optimistic don't they...
    fair summary I reckon....if they can make a FY21 npat of $11-12m then a dividend is a prospect. Debt to ebitda (pre-IFRS16) down to 1.53x today and should be around 1.3x at FY21.

    good to see Aussie is at least breakeven now after a couple of years of bleeding...imagine if it started to contribute $1-2m npat

  7. #2247
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    I was interested to read about the sale and leaseback agreement for the vehicles. I had wondered how they had paid back a larger amount of debt than I had expected. Maybe they had announced that earlier but I might've missed it.

    Other than that nothing particularly interesting that I can see. Australia looking maybe better than I expected. NZ probably slightly worse but time will tell.

  8. #2248
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeybycrikey View Post
    I was interested to read about the sale and leaseback agreement for the vehicles. I had wondered how they had paid back a larger amount of debt than I had expected. Maybe they had announced that earlier but I might've missed it
    yeah they mentioned it in the ann on the 14/10 - leasing a no brainer eh!
    reckon it would be nice to get debt down to about 20M

  9. #2249
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeybycrikey View Post
    I was interested to read about the sale and leaseback agreement for the vehicles. I had wondered how they had paid back a larger amount of debt than I had expected. Maybe they had announced that earlier but I might've missed it.

    Other than that nothing particularly interesting that I can see. Australia looking maybe better than I expected. NZ probably slightly worse but time will tell.
    Agree. Sort of good they stopped the bleeding in Australia, but not bleeding anymore still does not make it a winner, at best a survivor.

    NZ sort of a worry - given that home improvement industry is currently totally flat out in NZ (even trying to get just a quote these days from many home improvement businesses is hopeless ... and I am speaking from experience), why does MPG not benefit from the money all these non travelling Kiwis are now spending for their homes? Home insulation business is booming, home renovations business is flat out. What exactly is wrong with MPG that they don't see this boom?

    I hope for them that they pull through, but if I just look at the analyst predictions, then MPG looks currently ways overvalued ... and hey, they are neither a FPH nor a MFT ...

    Obviously - analyst EPS predictions are pretty low (avg 2.3 cts over the next 3 years) ... if they just manage to double this number, then their current SP looks fair. Question is just - do they?

    Looking at their long term EPS (negative 9 cents per share over the last 10 years) am I not that optimistic. In the past they tended to generate in good years something like 5 to 11 cents per share - but every 8 to 10 years they seem to have these huge write offs basically extinguishing any profits they made in between.

    Sort of like AIR, just lower highs and more messy crashes.

    On the other hand - this time is different, isn't it?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #2250
    Aspiring to be an Awesome Bear
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    Hmmm well I sold a few last week @ $0.44 and ditched the rest this morning. Have held this thing for way too long and pleased to get out with most of my fur intact. Better places for The Bears money to sit making honey. Someone will probably turn up and buy them out now that I have sold GLTH

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