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Hi enzedex
Welcome to the forum. I feel sorry for you. Its not a stock I really follow but the brokers seem to like it with a consensus valuation of $2.00
http://www.4-traders.com/METRO-PERFO...972/consensus/
In my view concerns over the Chch rebuild having peaked are probably a little overdone especially in as much as there's still a really rampant building boom going on in the much larger Auckland market.
Consensus eps for FY16 is 15 cps. My usual personal yardstick I use for building companies is a PE of 10, because of the cyclical nature of their earnings. On this basis Fletcher Building is wildly overvalued and I have though as much for a VERY long time now and MPG is now slightly undervalued. Watch their response to the NZX price enquiry to see if that shed's any light on the situation.
Hopefully Winner will share his greater expertise with regard to this stock shortly. In terms of throwing good money after bad...my personal viewpoint is I am reluctant to buy any stock when its established a clear trend downwards until there is clear evidence of the chart forming some sort of bottom. Fundamentally it must be approaching a value buy somewhere around these level's but it could well be a value trap and I'd prefer the chart (technical analysis) to be lining up with fundamental analysis before considering buying.
Edit, he already has. I'd be attending the ASM and closely looking at the outlook before deciding to buy more if I were you.
Last edited by Beagle; 17-08-2015 at 05:15 PM.
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Originally Posted by Roger
Another private equity company bringing a company with a chequered history to the market when the market is currently priced at 22 year high's on a forward PE basis.
Yes this rush of IPO's is strategically timed and NO companies such as this which have cyclical earnings should not command a PE of early teens in anything other than an irrational market.
Hirepool Mk2 anyone ? YAWN...
I stand by this comment I made on page 1 of this thread on 2 July 2014. PE of 10 is the magic number for a small building products company. Whatever their real FY16 forecast is, multiply by 10 and that will give you an idea of where I see fair value. Probably the shares are fair / slightly good value now but with ALL the momentum downwards, the market can stay irrational longer than investors can stay liquid.
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Sure is a sad looking chart
Seems to have gone downhill since the half year announcement late May
NPAT ahead of PFI but sales were down because of 'constraints and backlogs. in the industry
The story was that this building cycle might not peak as high as forecast but would remain pretty high for longer. That's how I see it as well
But selling has been relentless eh,
If FY16 NPAT is say $20m odd that's 11/12 cents a share
Rogers rule of thumb then share price 110-120
Yes ASM will be telling - a few watching I would think
Bad as I have said building industry stocks are not liked at the moment. Bad sentiment is hard to overcome, even though Mike Hosking says the economy is in good shape
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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Down 30 cents in August alone and we're only just over half way through the month !! That's as ugly a drop as I've seen for a while...not surprised the NZX have a price enquiry, that's a shocker. Something not right. Bad news on the outlook coming at the ASM ??
Last edited by Beagle; 17-08-2015 at 06:11 PM.
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Originally Posted by Roger
Down 30 cents in August alone and we're only just over half way through the month !! That's as ugly a drop as I've seen for a while...not surprised the NZX have a price enquiry, that's a shocker. Something not right. Bad news on the outlook coming at the ASM ??
Only been listed a year so not a good look is it.
Methinks that whatever is behind the fall means the 'stench' will stay with them for many years. Could become a pariah of the market
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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If any body reads the latest MBIE Construction Pipeline Report you would think that's the likes of Metro will be very busy for a few years. 'Unprecendented levels' of new building activity coming up .....and then Metro do heaps of retrofit double glazing and other work.
Extract - New Zealand is building more than ever before and construction activity is forecast to hit unprecedented levels, according to the third National Construction Pipeline Report published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) today.
http://www.mbie.govt.nz/news-and-med...ues-rapid-rise
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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The share price started tumbling about the same time as the NZD v USD
Most of their glass is imported ....will put margins under pressure
Maybe that's the cause
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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Originally Posted by winner69
...Bad sentiment is hard to overcome, even though Mike Hosking says the economy is in good shape...
Yes, but how is the sentiment around Mike Hosking at the moment?
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Originally Posted by nextbigthing
Yes, but how is the sentiment around Mike Hosking at the moment?
....you tell me, you be one of his biggest fans wouldn't you?
I gave up on him in the morning .....Susie on National Program better even though that Guyon is a bit of twit.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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I'm with Winston - Hosking (and Larry Williams & Jamie McKay) are shameless Tory cheerleaders. By the way I was going to swap my FBU for MPG and thought I had missed the boat on timing - lucky miss!
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