MPG - Metro Glass

[Sideshow Bob]

Results are out:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318385

Group revenue of $268.3 million (+10%) including a full 12 months of trading from AGG. EBIT of $28.0 million (‐15%) and NPAT of $16.3 million (‐16%) impacted by significant items  Strong operating cash flow of $33.6 million (+92%) and net debt flat at $94.3m  Soft NZ construction activity resulted in flat NZ sales; RetroFit revenue grew +25%  Australian revenue growth supported by Victorian double glazing sales, however capital programme disruptions impacted financial results in the final quarter of FY18  Completed a $20.6m capital programme involving all plants, plus greenfield Tasmanian plant  Declared a fully‐imputed final dividend of 3.8 cps, bringing total FY18 dividends to 7.4 cps  Conducted a strategic review of the business; changes at board and senior management level

[winner69]

Should give market some confidence

Yes — good buying in low 80s eh balance

[Sideshow Bob]

$2.9m in CEO departure and recruitment costs in FT18. Hopefully they aren't recurring!

[BlackPeter]

Well done?

If you take the revenue of the Australian appendix (first full year) out of the picture, than revenue (268m) did hardly change compared to last year (NZ slightly down, AU slightly up, but profitability down) - and certainly ended somewhat below anyway subdued analyst predictions (272m).

EPS (8.8 cents) did as well under perform compared to last year (10.5 cents) and compared to analyst expectations (9.4 cents).

NTA is basically naught (but this is not new - just what too much goodwill on the balance sheet really means).

If you call this "well done" How would a bad result look like?

Outlook for next year sounds like shareholders will be lucky if its not worse than this year.

Chair Peter Griffiths said: “Future market conditions are always difficult to predict, but we expect activity in
New Zealand to remain close to the current levels for the coming 12 months, with further Canterbury declines
being offset by growth in other regions.

Not quite convinced they reached already the bottom ... at least it might be worthwhile to wait until they found a new CEO and (s)he had time to tidy up the closets from the remaining skeletons ...

[Beagle]

Well done?

If you take the revenue of the Australian appendix (first full year) out of the picture, than revenue (268m) did hardly change compared to last year (NZ slightly down, AU slightly up, but profitability down) - and certainly ended somewhat below anyway subdued analyst predictions (272m).

EPS (8.8 cents) did as well under perform compared to last year (10.5 cents) and compared to analyst expectations (9.4 cents).

NTA is negative (but this is not new - just what too much goodwill on the balance sheet really means).

If you call this "well done" How would a bad result look like?

Outlook for next year sounds like shareholders will be lucky if its not worse than this year.



Not quite convinced they reached already the bottom ... at least it might be worthwhile to wait until they found a new CEO and (s)he had time to tidy up the closets from the remaining skeletons ...

Well said, agree 100%. Very tough sector at the moment as FBU and STU results confirm...why bother with this sector ?
Then there's all that goodwill on the balance sheet that was valued based on continuous ongoing growth each year which is just some fantasy created by the IPO promotors. They waited till outside consultants told them what "blind freddy" already knew, that the construction sector is cyclical.
I reckon the truth is that goodwill figure is grossly inflated above fair value.
A rudderless ship on a journey to nowhere with plenty of systemic issues still to be uncovered by a new CEO if they can find a good one ?...how long have they been looking now ? Obviously its hard to find anyone who wants a hospital pass that will tarnish their future career ?

[Arbroath]

Result is OK imho given lowered expectations and with the share price at 83c = 5.7x EV/ebitda.

Key will be execution next 24 months to get debt down to c. $75m to reduce gearing before any real cycle softening kicks in.

[Filthy]

Well done?

If you take the revenue of the Australian appendix (first full year) out of the picture, than revenue (268m) did hardly change compared to last year (NZ slightly down, AU slightly up, but profitability down) - and certainly ended somewhat below anyway subdued analyst predictions (272m).

EPS (8.8 cents) did as well under perform compared to last year (10.5 cents) and compared to analyst expectations (9.4 cents).

NTA is basically naught (but this is not new - just what too much goodwill on the balance sheet really means).

If you call this "well done" How would a bad result look like?

Outlook for next year sounds like shareholders will be lucky if its not worse than this year.



Not quite convinced they reached already the bottom ... at least it might be worthwhile to wait until they found a new CEO and (s)he had time to tidy up the closets from the remaining skeletons ...

maybe it is all relative though. the SP has almost halved from $1.55 in July, for just a 16% drop in EPS. could it already be priced in?

[BlackPeter]

maybe it is all relative though. the SP has almost halved from $1.55 in July, for just a 16% drop in EPS. could it already be priced in?

Hard to say ... if the future looks good, it probably is. If the future looks bleak there is clearly lots of further down potential.

BTW - had a look at the RoE (NPAT / Shareholder Equity)- and here is another development I don't like:

2018FY: 11.4%
2017FY: 12.4%
2016FY: 14.1%

Anybody spotting the trend?

Still - I am not writing them off yet, but I think they will need a really good and clued up CEO and some hefty goodwill write offs to get out of the current descent ...

[bull....]

as expected , well down. Going on past experience of over promising and under delivering im expecting more pain going forward

[Balance]

Should give market some confidence

Yes — good buying in low 80s eh balance

Always right to buy at 82c, W69.

Happy with the results - no nasties hiding in them from what I can assess.

Great dividend yield and new management & some new directors to guide the company on the next stage of its journey - not exciting but hopefully, rewarding.