MPG - Metro Glass

[Balance]

maybe it is all relative though. the SP has almost halved from $1.55 in July, for just a 16% drop in EPS. could it already be priced in?

It's called PE contraction - a lower profit (hence, EPS) results in a lower PER being accorded to the stock. Hence the recent 50% sp fall vs 16% drop in EPS.

Reverse will start happening if (when imo) MPG starts delivering on its forecast of a better result next year.

You can already see it in action today - MPG delivered on its downgraded forecast of 8.8 eps and the sp is up 7c, meaning a higher PER.

If (when imo) MPG delivers 10.5c next year, the sp will track higher - I believe a PER then of 12 so sp could be $1.26.

Happy holder.

Always right to buy at 82c.

[winner69]

Always right to buy at 82c, W69.

Happy with the results - no nasties hiding in them from what I can assess.

Great dividend yield and new management & some new directors to guide the company on the next stage of its journey - not exciting but hopefully, rewarding.

My average just over 82 mate ...bought some at 83

But I’ll say ‘always right to buy at 82c’ as well

[steveb]

I can beat that bought some in march for .79c,but my average is still $1.28 so still in the ****,just hope Balance gets it right at $1.26!

[t.rexjr]

It's called PE contraction - a lower profit (hence, EPS) results in a lower PER being accorded to the stock. Hence the recent 50% sp fall vs 16% drop in EPS.

Reverse will start happening if (when imo) MPG starts delivering on its forecast of a better result next year.

You can already see it in action today - MPG delivered on its downgraded forecast of 8.8 eps and the sp is up 7c, meaning a higher PER.

If (when imo) MPG delivers 10.5c next year, the sp will track higher - I believe a PER then of 12 so sp could be $1.26.

Happy holder.

Always right to buy at 82c.

That sp slash/fall is due to many changing their veiw that the company is one of growth to cyclical. If thats the case then I wouldn't be so keen to value it based on figures at the top of a cycle. 82c seems pretty good buying though...

[Balance]

That sp slash/fall is due to many changing their veiw that the company is one of growth to cyclical. If thats the case then I wouldn't be so keen to value it based on figures at the top of a cycle. 82c seems pretty good buying though...

The glass industry in NZ is basically a duopoly with some import competition for the major jobs.

My glazier contact (who has done some big projects like Britomart Auckland and Auckland Airport) said his firm preferred to obtain supply from a player like Metro Glass - the logistics of importing directly from China and Korea to save a few %tage is simply not worth the aggravation. There seems to be problems with shipments.

Mismanagement of MPG has been a factor in the last few years but it is a testimony to the underlying strength of the business that the company still made decent (albeit lower) profits despite the mismanagement.

Contrast MPG's earnings performance with STU and FBU to get some perspective.

Onwards and upwards from here, I hope.

[steveb]

Hey balance could be worth getting a few more soon,down to 85c inc divi,takes it to low 80's again.I'm back in again if it goes a little lower

[Balance]

Hey balance could be worth getting a few more soon,down to 85c inc divi,takes it to low 80's again.I'm back in again if it goes a little lower

Always right to buy at 82c.

I am there.

[Balance]

Always right to buy at 82c.

I am there.

90 cents bid.

No chance in short term to top up at 82 cents.

[carrom74]

90 cents bid.


No chance in short term to top up at 82 cents.

i never gave up on MPG... expecting more upswing..

Read an article the other day and the writer was surprised at the guidance given for FY2019 so early...I am not saying they will achieve it... but the intent is certainly there...

[t.rexjr]

Building consents are steadily edging up. 32,015 new homes consented in the 12 months to April 2018, the highest level since the high of 2004. ('growth'?)

Interesting that 'Houses' have plateaued since their peak in June 2016 (possible industry constraints?). Appartments, Town houses and 'Old folks homes' seem to be providing the upward trend

Attachment 9719