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Thread: Metro Glass IPO

  1. #1891
    Aspiring to be an Awesome Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    As soon as I finish buying.
    I have been trying to decide whether to buy a few more and average down further but the Bear has made a muck of things so far this year so I am sitting on my hands and not throwing good money after bad at the moment

  2. #1892
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Sometimes its best to pause and simply sit on your paws
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #1893
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Sometimes its best to pause and simply sit on your paws
    When in doubt, stay out.

    Good investment adage to follow in these uncertain times indeed!

  4. #1894
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Why would they chase the sp up further before launching a bid?

    No need for me to comment on the sp action - events unfolding as I expect.
    Not much action happening at the moment Balance. Guess we will just have to wait patiently for a bit longer.....

  5. #1895
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    Not much action happening at the moment Balance. Guess we will just have to wait patiently for a bit longer.....
    I take a simple attitude to this thing - if one believes a t/o is going to happen, it's a matter of being there.

    Nobody is going to ring a bell when it is going to happen.

  6. #1896
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    I take a simple attitude to this thing - if one believes a t/o is going to happen, it's a matter of being there.

    Nobody is going to ring a bell when it is going to happen.
    I am a believer but patience is not the Bears strong point so I wish they would hurry up!

  7. #1897
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post

    Nobody is going to ring a bell when it is going to happen.
    The take over will surely come soon, just one more day...

    balance.jpg

  8. #1898
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    The take over will surely come soon, just one more day...
    Happy to bet (again) with you that mpg happens before your Comvita does.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    lol, what are we betting exactly?...

    If the take over party was doing due diligence "for months", that means they were looking at this while the share price was in the $7-$9 range. Therefore their take over price would realistically have been at least $9, possibly $10. BUT, throw in the recent downgrade and they probably dropped their offer price down to $7, a figure too low for the board to accept.

    HOWEVER, if the share price drops further, to say mid to low $5s, it becomes interesting, as the questions is now "is $7 an acceptable price"? The take over could happen but it doesn't really help shareholders (the bet).

    If it is the Chinese, who already have a 10% stake, this "game" could go on for years. They could possible buy another stake later this year, then make another take over attempt. If it is another party, then it's more likely they will either raise their offer or be gone for good, however, that raises the chances of the Chinese making a counter offer.

    I'll bet that there isn't much downside. So, if you buy today and the share price drops to low $5s, then the take over party will be back with an offer at $6, thus you will break even. What I bet won't happen, is that the share price will drop to low $5s and the take over party doesn't come back. To sum up, if you buy today, you can't lose, worse case is you break even.

  9. #1899
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Happy to bet (again) with you that mpg happens before your Comvita does.
    We should just admit that these are both dogs. At least I've put mine down before it got sick.

    I see that you're in A2M. I'm back into Xero recently. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post746546

    Why gamble with CVT/MPG when you can make more money with the unicorns.

  10. #1900
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
    We should just admit that these are both dogs. At least I've put mine down before it got sick.

    I see that you're in A2M. I'm back into Xero recently. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post746546

    Why gamble with CVT/MPG when you can make more money with the unicorns.
    Always remember "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient" - Warren Buffett

    Assuming of course that you are in an undervalued stock in the first place - which CVT is not and definitely was not at over $6!
    Last edited by Balance; 13-02-2019 at 10:57 AM.

  11. #1901
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    Australia not working for Metro while NZ hangs in there

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...050/296875.pdf

    The insto investors demanded ‘growth’ thus the expensive foray into Australia. Paid too much (hence write down) and will continue to be a drag on Metro’s performance. Shareholders (esp instos) deserve what they get sometime.
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  12. #1902
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    they purchased aus glass at the top of the apartment cycle in aus so do you really see amazing growth coming from there?
    hasnt this prediction come so true
    bull

  13. #1903
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Australia not working for Metro while NZ hangs in there

    http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...050/296875.pdf

    The insto investors demanded ‘growth’ thus the expensive foray into Australia. Paid too much (hence write down) and will continue to be a drag on Metro’s performance. Shareholders (esp instos) deserve what they get sometime.
    Oh dear - they say downgrades come in threes. But there have been so many and I lost count ... anybody remembers which number this is?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  14. #1904
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Oh dear - they say downgrades come in threes. But there have been so many and I lost count ... anybody remembers which number this is?
    Must be #4?

    This one, I will warrant to add, is already priced into the stock - on today's update, stock is trading on PER of 6.7 times.

    Which is why Bain Capital wants it - buy cheap and some years later, sell to the dumbo institutions and investors who love buying hype and at top of the cycle.

  15. #1905
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    With the goodwill write-down which is probably grossly inadequate in its size, the headline number on 23 May is going to look very ugly.
    I see no reason to rush buying this mutt. Has all the hallmarks of a value trap.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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