MPG - Metro Glass

**hardt** · 21-03-2018, 02:34 AM

div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued

It is pretty tempting at this price... downgrades have somewhat been priced in ( i think ) , all they got to do is land a result inline with their own forecasts for once.

**Balance** · 21-03-2018, 09:01 AM

Originally Posted by hardt

div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued

It is pretty tempting at this price... downgrades have somewhat been priced in ( i think ) , all they got to do is land a result inline with their own forecasts for once.

Tempting, hardt but MPG has been 'cheap' around $1.40 when it suffered from the first shock profit downgrade in Jan 2017?

Best to see the following before making any move:

1. Strategic review results,

2. Appointment of new CEO,

3. Indication of 2018 results (no update so far should indicate that they are at least on track to meeting the lowered expectations signaled in Nov 2017).

**winner69** · 21-03-2018, 09:06 AM

Some were saying cheap when share price was over $2

**BlackPeter** · 21-03-2018, 09:22 AM

Originally Posted by JeremyALD

Funny that July last year the market was regaining some confidence in MPG after a positive investor strategy day. It all went downhill very quickly after the ASM.

Looking at the SP the market is saying that this year is as good as is going to get for MPG. A market cap of 139m for a company which has posted around 20m NPAT for three years straight does seem very low, however the chart is bloody ugly. Hard to know how many porkies John and Rigby having been hiding in the closet after years of BS. They've been promising cost benefits for years from all their optimisation work, so wonder if that will ever come to the pass.

Hard to believe how a company could be so much of a mess in a bull market (both for construction and the share market).

Wonder what BP thinks of the SP being at 75 cents lol.

What do you think I am thinking? Pleased I got out when I did

(well documented on this thread).

Looking at re-entering? Maybe - at some stage, I guess there must be a reason they are still on my watch list. Agree however with balance - it feels sensible to wait until we see the new CEO and are able to assess whether he/she is any good and gave him/her time to dig out the remaining skeletons Rigby & Co did hide in their closets.

After this time (and with the benefit of an emerging uptrend) it might be a great time to buy in. I guess MPG is clearly a dog ... and it might be at some stage a very worthwhile to buy

; On the other hand - it would not be the first sick dog dying in the streets. Better wait until we do see clear signs of recovery.

**Filthy** · 21-03-2018, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

I guess MPG is clearly a dog...

That might be little unfair. The business has just been subjected to a hangover of an over-exaggerated IPO, low-building/construction margins, high expectations, some poor management, flat growth and bad market sentiment driven by bad TA. FBU failings have not helped it either.

MPG is nothing more than a divi-paying cyclical much the same way STU & FBU are. It has just had a massive re-rate as it was sold as a 'growth story', when its clearly not.

They still have a reasonable business though imo. No downgrade and probably very good buying at these levels for anyone who wants ~10% gross (the punt is, if this is sustainable or not). Reckon waiting is a good idea, but it 'should' be fine. Bottom of the cycle maybe?

**percy** · 21-03-2018, 10:24 AM

With FBU,MPG,MVN,and STU, all now serial under performers, the sector is best avoided.

**crighton100** · 23-03-2018, 01:51 PM

Just as a matter of interest I have just returned from a cruise & whilst onboard met a guy who runs a company in wanganui installing windows.We got to talking about mpg & I asked what was their problem & he said one thing & that was Quality control,he said frequently they would supply windows that did not fit or were double glazed & had been made back to front & could not be used,he said when they fix that problem they would do just fine.

**Beagle** · 23-03-2018, 04:40 PM

Originally Posted by JeremyALD

Funny that July last year the market was regaining some confidence in MPG after a positive investor strategy day. It all went downhill very quickly after the ASM.

Looking at the SP the market is saying that this year is as good as is going to get for MPG. A market cap of 139m for a company which has posted around 20m NPAT for three years straight does seem very low, however the chart is bloody ugly. Hard to know how many porkies John and Rigby having been hiding in the closet after years of BS. They've been promising cost benefits for years from all their optimisation work, so wonder if that will ever come to the pass.

Hard to believe how a company could be so much of a mess in a bull market (both for construction and the share market).

Wonder what BP thinks of the SP being at 75 cents lol.

It must be a buy now surely lol.
Ignore the long term downtrend at your peril folks.
Prudent investors with any interest in this sector, (why would you really want to bother I don't know) will wait for a confirmed bottom and buy once it goes back up through its 100 day MA, assuming that ever happens.