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  1. #1921
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    As a company they are a pretty solid performer ...sell lots of stuff and achieve margins many of their global peers would envy....and continue to improve operational efficiencies to stay in the game.


    Thanks winner, your post echo my sentiments. Focusing on reducing debt rather than growth will ensure it’s long term viability. Building booms are traps for growth hungry construction companies. If you’re patient, a good long term hold imo.
    Last edited by bullfrog; 23-05-2019 at 09:24 PM.

  2. #1922
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    If a company keeps on delivering downgrades then it surely deserves to be punished share price wise. That has been the case with MPG until this latest update. MPG has increased market share in NZ although there has been a decline in operating margin. That could simply mean that MPG has undercut the competition in order to regain market share, or it could mean that the competition is fierce but MPG has faced it off through improved customer service as well as pricing. We cannot actually tell from the announcement.
    So now the challenge for MPG is to keep on reducing costs so that it increases profitability as well as market superiority, even in the face of serious competition.
    Australia is a different story. I think we need to give them some more time there in order to pull the operations together and make it work better. Further decline in Australia would suggest selling out as the best option and retreating back to to NZ as its sole market. That would make Australia an expensive exercise and limit MPG's growth prospects but better than continuing to throw away NZ profits. We have seen a result like this many times with NZ companies better and bigger than MPG, although "better" is questionable.
    With today's 12.5% increase in SP, the market has moved away from regarding MPG as a pariah like SKT, but that still leaves it on a very low base. Reinstituting a dividend would have a significant impact on investor sentiment but I rather think that they will prefer to continue to keep paying down debt in the next period, although a small dividend may be affordable.
    Last edited by SilverBack; 23-05-2019 at 10:23 PM.

  3. #1923
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Yes Jeremy, MPG share price performance has been shocking and for that they deserve negative coverage ....although a lot of the vitriol probably comes from those who’ve lost money.

    Company performance wise has been reasonably consistent and solid ...like I said yesterday over the last four years it’s operating cash flow hasn’t been that dissimilar to the tee shirt and dress retailers love.

    Company performance similar to that company but shareholders experience has been vastly different,...although a few might say the tee shirt and dress retailer share price has had its ups and downs as well.

    The difference between the two has been one keeps making promises (stupidly) while the other hardly ever says anything. Get the picture.

    Investing is a bit like going to the races - you avidly study the form guide and hear the trainer say his horse is brilliant etc etc .......and then take a punt.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #1924
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Where Metro might go from here as an investment could follow the path of Methven and Skellerup - sort of similar companies.

    Both were market pariahs for many years. Glossy presentations and unfulfilled promises in abundance....you become pariahs by setting high expectations and not delivering.

    But financially both companies performed quite consistently and solidly ...just not to the promised levels.

    But both eventually came right.....and looking at them objectively (rather than emotionally) rewarded some share holders well.

    There’s more to a company than what the squiggly line on a chart looks like


    my hats off to percy - Methven’s harshest critic over the years but acting ‘objectively’ he was in the right place at the right time and made a killing......seems he doing the same with Skellerup now.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #1925
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Pretty bad day around on the bourse today

    Metro doing OK though
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  6. #1926
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    They listed at $1.70 with numerous promises of growth and improvement. They have had so many downgrades for both businesses it's hard to count. They have been in capital works for years with the promise of improved productivity to no avail.

    The Australian disaster has only really happened in the last 6 months, so you can't say their NZ performance has been sound. They have been in the midst of a sharemarket and construction boom and yet have been the worst performing stock on the NZX. Also they took on far too much debt for a company of their size.

    Given how low the share price is I wouldn't be surprised if it bounced back - but it will never make it close to what it was listed for and they have warranted every bit of negative coverage they got imo.
    ^^^^ This. Massive amounts of goodwill on the balance sheet built up by grossly erroneous long term estimations of growth that have never eventuated. Worse was to come when the company had to hire outside consultants to tell them their growth assumptions were completely unrealistic. The value of the intellectual property and goodwill on the balance sheet is a complete and utter work of fiction and completely baseless given their current performance. Until there is evidence they can turn Australia around this looks like a very high risk share to me with very questionable management and governance. In horse racing terms it would be fair to say this thing has been a lame donkey ever since it first appeared at the trials.

    You could say the only way was up but you could also say said donkey is only good for the pet food factory and be done with it ! For mine I've seen enough corporate bull**** from this company to last more than one lifetime. It fully deserves to be a penny dreadful which is exactly what it is !
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-05-2019 at 03:40 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #1927
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    Every dog has its day. At 35 - 37 cents, I would buy this all day long.

  8. #1928
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bottomfeeder View Post
    Every dog has its day. At 35 - 37 cents, I would buy this all day long.
    This dog has already had its day and got up to about $2.10 at one point at which point if my memory serves me correctly Winner became a Winner and took his profits.
    Basically its been steadily downhill ever since. Unless they can deal with that cancer that is their Australian arm this mutt is in very serious strife.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #1929
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    Yes beagle.... I remembered it very clearly, all instos were recommending MPG and EVO back then and it was on NBR page....

  10. #1930
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    House building outllook for Auckland next 12-24 months still looks very good...Metro need to make some hay and get the debt down next 2 years.
    Auckland residential should be c. 40% of NZ house building in 2020-2021

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...-over-next-two

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