MPG - Metro Glass

[winner69]

I would have bleed so much I'd probably be dead... down another 16.5% in barely 2 months. They aren't gonna cut that now juicy dividend right?

...how I feel with that FXL

They aren't gonna cut their forecast down right?

[percy]

As investors we quickly learn [often the hard way] which companies achieve what they say they will do,and which companies don't.
If they achieve I buy more.If they don't I sell.
And like BP, I have had the wool pulled over my eyes a few more times than I would like to admit to.
But those companies do not get a second chance with me.

[trader_jackson]

...how I feel with that FLX

They aren't gonna cut their forecast down right?

I think you mean FXL - I'd like to think they won't cut it down, would be a true disappointment... still not doing as bad as MPG (and yes, FXL's share price performance has been 'really bad' this past year). Crazy that MPG is still nearly 50% more expensive than FXL (pe ratio wise) - winner69, are you suggesting MPG could fall another 33% or so? Now that would well and truly make me feel much, much worse than how I feel with FXL (which is along the same lines as you I would think).

Maybe by talking about another completely different company, on a completely different forum can boost the share prices of both companies

[winner69]

Main thing wrong with metro leadership team is that they do too much strategising and preparing pretty PowerPoint presentations. With consultants on the team I dread what these presentations will look like in future

They really need some hands on execution ...lead from the top.

Consumer Intimancy and Transformation and all those buzz words are terribly impressive ....but getting out into the factory and onto building sites is what’s needed

Lest we forget how good they are
https://stocknessmonster.com/news-it...=ASX&N=1022859

[bull....]

BP had a very considered and well thought out thesis for investing in Metro. Did plenty of research and even bothered to do a site visit. Only thing wrong was he believed all the stuff in Metro's presentations, in particular I think he was swayed by the reported huge growth over the last 4 to 5 years not grasping that that only covered a half cycle (ie growth from the depths of despair which forced the company into what was essentially receivership to the peak of the current cycle). In reality growth form peak to peak was single digit % pa.

I lalo recall you Mr Beagle saying you though the Annual Report was a pretty good read and this was probably a company going places.

Sad BP hasn't commented on this thread for a few weeks as I would be interested to see if his views have changed much. But good to see that the cheerleader baton has been passed to Head Hunter. Hope he hasn't fallen into the same trap as BP by repeating almost word for word what the company says to convince us that all is honly dory.

About 90 cents is as low as it will go. Even bull... is now probably trading this 'baby' and from here Head Hunter may have the last laugh.

im not looking to trade it, its in a confirmed downtrend with fundamental industry headwinds at the moment - its better to just watch and see how the property market reacts over the next year to the new govt policies, bank policies , rbnz etc etc

[BlackPeter]

BP had a very considered and well thought out thesis for investing in Metro. Did plenty of research and even bothered to do a site visit. Only thing wrong was he believed all the stuff in Metro's presentations, in particular I think he was swayed by the reported huge growth over the last 4 to 5 years not grasping that that only covered a half cycle (ie growth from the depths of despair which forced the company into what was essentially receivership to the peak of the current cycle). In reality growth form peak to peak was single digit % pa.

I lalo recall you Mr Beagle saying you though the Annual Report was a pretty good read and this was probably a company going places.

Sad BP hasn't commented on this thread for a few weeks as I would be interested to see if his views have changed much. But good to see that the cheerleader baton has been passed to Head Hunter. Hope he hasn't fallen into the same trap as BP by repeating almost word for word what the company says to convince us that all is honly dory.

About 90 cents is as low as it will go. Even bull... is now probably trading this 'baby' and from here Head Hunter may have the last laugh.

Being flattered - never realised I am that popular ... , but as excuse for my silence - currently travelling on the other side of the globe and a bit time constrained to follow stocks I don't hold.

Apologize to anybody who bought the stock due to my posts ... but I am sure I added frequently "DYOR" ... and I normally try to write balanced posts - i.e. I am sure I highlighted as well the risks.

I sold out some weeks ago (around $1) and duly informed this thread ... I am sure the post at that time explains as well my current views on MPG.

Not sure I can add a lot of new info - I think we are still just at the beginning of the unfolding of the troubles of our building industry (FBU & Co) - and I probably should have seen earlier that MPG can't easily insulate itself against these. I see as well that they optimised their factory to provide customised glass for high value individual buildings - which may or may not be the big market of the future. Maybe we need more standardised state houses (with cheap Chinese windows) to resolve our building crisis?

How much is the stock worth? We well might have reached fair value ... but markets tend to overreact and so I think there will be in the coming year times where the share can be purchased cheaper than now.

Anyway ... give me another month or so and I might be back with some fresher analysis. I didn't gave up yet on MPG, but I think it is more likely to get worse before it gets better (otherwise I would not have sold around $1).

[Beagle]

Being flattered - never realised I am that popular ... , but as excuse for my silence - currently travelling on the other side of the globe and a bit time constrained to follow stocks I don't hold.

Apologize to anybody who bought the stock due to my posts ... but I am sure I added frequently "DYOR" ... and I normally try to write balanced posts - i.e. I am sure I highlighted as well the risks.

I sold out some weeks ago (around $1) and duly informed this thread ... I am sure the post at that time explains as well my current views on MPG.

Not sure I can add a lot of new info - I think we are still just at the beginning of the unfolding of the troubles of our building industry (FBU & Co) - and I probably should have seen earlier that MPG can't easily insulate itself against these. I see as well that they optimised their factory to provide customised glass for high value individual buildings - which may or may not be the big market of the future. Maybe we need more standardised state houses (with cheap Chinese windows) to resolve our building crisis?

How much is the stock worth? We well might have reached fair value ... but markets tend to overreact and so I think there will be in the coming year times where the share can be purchased cheaper than now.

Anyway ... give me another month or so and I might be back with some fresher analysis. I didn't gave up yet on MPG, but I think it is more likely to get worse before it gets better (otherwise I would not have sold around $1).

Fair comment and appreciate the update to your thinking which pretty much lines up with mine.
The massive amount of goodwill on the balance sheet is built upon assumptions of significant ongoing growth, forgive me I forget but I think its over 5%.
I don't see where that's coming from now that immigration might be down to just 40-50,000 per annum, (just 1% population growth per annum) and we appear to be moving toward a more standardized building model if Labour are to achieve their 10,000 extra homes per annum dream and that suggests mass standardized glass from China.
I struggle to see where their growth comes from...maybe we've hit the peak for MPG sales already for this cycle and its downhill from here. A little birdie tells me that MPG management don't / won't accept that viewpoint and are continuing to build their model based on good growth...Hmmm, lets see how that play's itself out.

Finally I remain concerned by a potential multi million dollar restructuring charge in FY19 from the current total organizational review, a restructuring exercise that might deliver some benefits to FY20 earnings but then again maybe the market has moved further against them by then too ? Classic case of a cat chasing its tail ?
Their FY17 annual report extols the virtues of taking a longer term view...well I'm afraid long term I see the potential for houses to be 3D printed, (already happening in Russia, 3D print a basic house in a single day) and much more standardised prefabricated flat pack housing built in factories in the future on a far more standardised basis and I think the future is smaller homes needing less glass and probably more and more of it from China. How else do me make housing affordable for young people ? The future is anything but clear and with this one the trend is definitely not your friend

[winner69]

Phil has just found out how bad the housing shortage is - its 71,000 and he's inherited 'a disaster'

So probably more than 10,000 extra new homes a year - that's not millions of windows - its getting up to zillions of windows ...wow

Nobody has ever been stopped building a house if they really wanted one .....sois there really a 'disaster'? Change the theoretical average number of people in a housing unit in their modelling just a little and the numbers change quite dramatically

[TheHunter]

Happy to carry the baton winner, believe you have referred to me with an extra head before.

Beagle, Retrofit and Australia are the two growth sectors for MPG. Consents with a one year lag are also at record highs keeping revenue ticking along for quite some time. Sales growth isn't the issue, they are at record highs. Margin is due to poor S&OP planning. If they fix margin, earnings will grow.

How will they fix margin - reviewing processes and capex investment.

Ol Nigel has a lot to gain if he gets GM humming again.

[TheHunter]

Jeez, maybe all these fancy presentations have gone to my head!