MPG - Metro Glass

[winner69]

Share price down 30% in a few months - about 18% before he crash today

Makes you wonder if the market per se was sort of aware of what was happening with MPG and todays announcement won't be a surprise for some.

[BlackPeter]

Yes, I was wondering that myself. Interesting that the downtrend started basically after the release of the (quite good) HY results. It was however on quite low (but after the announcement) volumes. I guess it is a big factory - and given that the downgrade was based on manufacturing problems is it hard to avoid that some staff members talk about their frustrations at home or to friends.

Could they have announced earlier? Possibly, but than - you can't really announce every teething problem.

On the bright side - analyst forecasts have been updated - and they don't look that bleak for the years to come:

http://www.4-traders.com/METRO-PERFO...72/financials/

This would turn into a forward P/E of 11.6 combined with a CAGR of 25. Not too shabby ... even if the CAGR is quite likely to drop (I guess, where are they supposed to go as largest player in town)?

Big question is - do we trust in management saying they have the teething problems now under control? If yes, they might be well a buy.

[BlackPeter]

Sure - not a huge number, but I still take that as a positive news if management thinks that buying MPG shares at the current price is a good investment opportunity:

North island GM Dean Brown purchased 15,700 ordinary shares (spending $24,821) at roughly $1.58 each and added that to his existing holding;

https://www.nzx.com/companies/MPG/announcements/296599

[BlackPeter]

Interesting ... and I was wondering who is driving the SP so fast back up again. NZ Super was seeing a bargain and bought in big. They gave today SSH notice. No wonder there have been hardly any MPG shares left for me to average my holding down .

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4382739

Sort of confirming my suspicion that MPG is currently undervalued ... NZ superfund typically pretty good in buying good value;

[winner69]

Interesting ... and I was wondering who is driving the SP so fast back up again. NZ Super was seeing a bargain and bought in big. They gave today SSH notice. No wonder there have been hardly any MPG shares left for me to average my holding down .

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4382739

Sort of confirming my suspicion that MPG is currently undervalued ... NZ superfund typically pretty good in buying good value;

Wonder how many they had a month or so ago - probably quite a few so just topping up?

Good sign though

[BlackPeter]

Wonder how many they had a month or so ago - probably quite a few so just topping up?

Good sign though

Disclosure says: "On 6 March 2017, Devon Funds Management purchased 1,004,506 shares in Metro Performance Glass Limited." Devon Funds management is holding on behalf of NZ Super.

This means they had already 8.5m shares. Still - a 1 million share top up is more than I could have afforded .

[janner]

Disagree on many other things..

Agree with your thoughts on this one... Buying ?? Holding ??

[bottomfeeder]

A lot of investment funds are supporting MPG. But share price is still dropping slowly. Another IPO with high amount of goodwill. I think its a symptom of low interest rates. Nows the time to float reasonable companies and hike up the price because interest rates are low. I see now we have two classes of goodwill. The new one is Customer Relations. Ahh a rose by another name. When interest rates are low it is probably a good time to stay out of the market.

But at least they are producing something where there is demand. Must be a long term hold. I will buy as they drop in price as the market writes off the goodwill, that the company should be amortising.

[JoeGrogan]

Some huge volume today as the share price continues to fall.

[James108]

If you take the view that they are not a growth company and simply a company that has rode the construction boom wave then you should average their earnings over the cycle. In which case MPG still seem over valued.