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20-11-2017, 09:54 AM
#1141
as expected result except for the downgrade which might be a surprise for some.
due to there optimistic forecasting to date i will take next years with a grain of salt at this stage.
one step ahead of the herd
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20-11-2017, 09:59 AM
#1142
Had to laugh when new Chairman to be, Peter Griffiths, said that the bones of the business are good, trouble is that there's no meat on those bones.
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20-11-2017, 10:10 AM
#1143
Originally Posted by Beagle
By my read at the mid point of their forecast $19.25m after tax they are only expecting NPAT of ~ $6.5m for the second half, ouch ! Market is always forward looking...what does this second half forecast, (if they can make it ? ) suggest about their future prospects ?
30 day MA $0.97. Until there's a confirmed 3 day break above that figure, in my book from a technical perspective this is still in a confirmed downtrend.
I will leave others to try and pick the bottom.
Actually its more like $7.5m, not $6.5m and last year the second half was only c. $9m npat so its not that extraordinary.
Obviously some water to flow under the bridge and Mgmt have not earned the benefit of the doubt lately but at 8.5x earnings this has more upside than downside imho. We'll have to see if MPG can deliver the c. $19m FY18 npat and then they might earn a rerate back over $1.00
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20-11-2017, 10:23 AM
#1144
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...585/270077.pdf
Apologies you are quite right. Second half forecast at the mid point of their forecast suggests ~ $7.5m, if they can make it ? Downgrades almost always come in three's.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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20-11-2017, 10:59 AM
#1145
H2 NPAT will be down between 7% and 24% (on the much touted normalised basis)
Worse than 6% drop in H1
All honky dory though
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-11-2017, 11:09 AM
#1146
Gross Margin only 45% of sales odd compared to 51% last year
No worries ...fixing that at the moment ...in Australia as well as NZ
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-11-2017, 11:19 AM
#1147
W69.
You remind me of the people who said the Titanic was unsinkable.
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20-11-2017, 12:21 PM
#1148
Awful presentation of the chart on the left. Should have done something with the scales to actually show what they wanted to. Very amatuerish
However just imagine the revenue line when consents hit the 35,000 they mention
Mind you they did say 'whilst market activity is difficult to predict, forecasters are typically estimating that residential dwelling consents in New Zealand will continue in a range of 28,500 to 35,000 per annum in the next 2‐3 years'
I said they would fall to 28,500 and I think it was BP who mentioned 35,000 so they have listened to both of us.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-11-2017, 12:22 PM
#1149
Share price on a roll today ....feeling chuffed
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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20-11-2017, 12:35 PM
#1150
I think the guidance should be pretty safe. They have surely learnt their lessons the hard way not to over promise and under deliver. Positively the Australian business appears to be sound
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