Consents might be one thing but actual activity is interesting
From Stats NZ this doesn't read too good for building related companies
Total building activity fell in both volume and value terms in the March 2017 quarter, compared with the December 2016 quarter, Stats NZ said today. The volatile non-residential building work series led the volume fall, decreasing a seasonally adjusted 7.2 percent, while residential building work decreased 0.8 percent.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
Consents might be one thing but actual activity is interesting
From Stats NZ this doesn't read too good for building related companies
Total building activity fell in both volume and value terms in the March 2017 quarter, compared with the December 2016 quarter, Stats NZ said today. The volatile non-residential building work series led the volume fall, decreasing a seasonally adjusted 7.2 percent, while residential building work decreased 0.8 percent.
Well, I don't know - maybe we are all doomed. While decreased building activity in the first quarter of a year makes a lot of sense (holidays) -
turning this into a trend in my view makes not.
As well - how come retirement villages (e.g. at the SUM AGM) are complaining about stretched resources in the building industry if the same industry trends downwards? Does not compute.
They haven't yet found a way to make more land ... and to create more space to live in on this land, they must build (or move more people into cars and tents ...). Given that the NZ population is growing and will keep growing (even if we move immigration to Zero) just due to Kiwis returning, we will need new houses.
Call me an optimist - but if there is really a dip I see it only as very temporary. Just noticed National home building policy - 34,000 over 10 years:
Well, I don't know - maybe we are all doomed. While decreased building activity in the first quarter of a year makes a lot of sense (holidays) -
turning this into a trend in my view makes not.
As well - how come retirement villages (e.g. at the SUM AGM) are complaining about stretched resources in the building industry if the same industry trends downwards? Does not compute.
They haven't yet found a way to make more land ... and to create more space to live in on this land, they must build (or move more people into cars and tents ...). Given that the NZ population is growing and will keep growing (even if we move immigration to Zero) just due to Kiwis returning, we will need new houses.
Call me an optimist - but if there is really a dip I see it only as very temporary. Just noticed National home building policy - 34,000 over 10 years:
Bar a recession construction activity will be very strong in the next ten years. I don't know really know how this could be debated with the current housing crisis we're in so agree with you BP. Have a look at Hobsonville Point. There are some huge developments going on in NZ that are about 5 years away from completion. There are not enough builders to keep up
Well, I don't know - maybe we are all doomed. While decreased building activity in the first quarter of a year makes a lot of sense (holidays) -
turning this into a trend in my view makes not.
As well - how come retirement villages (e.g. at the SUM AGM) are complaining about stretched resources in the building industry if the same industry trends downwards? Does not compute.
They haven't yet found a way to make more land ... and to create more space to live in on this land, they must build (or move more people into cars and tents ...). Given that the NZ population is growing and will keep growing (even if we move immigration to Zero) just due to Kiwis returning, we will need new houses.
Call me an optimist - but if there is really a dip I see it only as very temporary. Just noticed National home building policy - 34,000 over 10 years:
The building activity report numbers werer seasonally adjusted so allows for the quieter period of the year.
Yep Nztional and theie 34,000 houses - whose kidding who but we better discuss that on another thread methinks. Be good for MPG if it is actually more than pre-election talk
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
If history is a guide - MPG moved so far every year sometimes between July and October into an uptrend. Just look at the charts, quite cyclical stock. I don't see why this year should be different, but obviously don't know whether this years "spring run" will start next month or a couple of months later.
They say "patience is a virtue" ...
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
You saying MPG share price is 'cyclical' and has some seasonal attributes intrigued me ....so I had a look
Below is MPG shareprice over the year for 2015 / 2016 and so far 2017
You focus on the July/Oct period.
I hope that it follows the 2016 line rather than the 2015. My conclusion not much seasonality (over two years anyway) for MPG share price
Casual observation is that the share price ends the year about where it was in June
Thanks for piquing my interest
winner, have another look. Your window is too small. I said the uptrend starts somewhere between July and October, NOT that it completes during this timeframe.
The 2015 uptrend only started in October and finished in December. Just to make the lot full - there are as well 2014 numbers (uptrend September to November) ...
MPG spring uptrends:
2014 September (174) to November (200)
2015 October (130) to December (172) - and it continued after a short dip through to February
2016 June (170) to September (225) - and it stayed through to early December on this level
All data taken from the trend chart (i.e. give or take a couple of days / cents)
... and consistent with the seasonal uptake of building permits during this time (you might remember this discussion).
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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Originally Posted by winner69
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