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Thread: Metro Glass IPO

  1. #41
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Was going to add to your reputation but apparently I have to spread it around. You haven't had many green things lately

    So bad luck
    May not have had any green ones,nor have I had any red ones,so all is well.!

  2. #42
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    IMHO Metro is a very risky investment. Ex-Private Equity ownership from a previous recessionary collapse. Value inflated as economic conditions improve (then sold to the public) and a few cyclical factors helping but valuation across the cycle way too high...
    In saying all that the market in general is not awash with good value opportunities - time to be defensive for mine and only hold a few high quality companies with the balance in cash deposits awaiting better value


    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    And to think I thought you only invested in out performers?
    Industry constraints.
    Challenges ahead.
    Commentary "a bit" bearish.
    I think the market is correct.

  3. #43
    One Fearsome Feline winner69's Avatar
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    Well a nice new multi million dollar factory to competitively service the current building boom ....and share price languishes below IPO price. Now $1.66

    In spite of good long term prospects this is its lot in life. Methinks its been tarred with the same brush as Fletchers and will be viewed in the same light ....solid but always a bit disappointing.

    Good company now. The company will do well .......the share price will always be 'undervalued' ........but not really my type of investment.

  4. #44
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    Any guesses on when the MPG share price will stop falling? It's the only share I've ever bought on the advice of an "expert". Biggest loss I've had!

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by enzedex View Post
    Any guesses on when the MPG share price will stop falling? It's the only share I've ever bought on the advice of an "expert". Biggest loss I've had!
    Metro Glass as a company will continue to perform well.

    However NZ punters aren't that keen on NZ building related stocks. It is tarred with the same brush as FBU and STU and as such the share price will languish and if overall market sentiment continues to be a dismal it will fall further.

    You'll get the dividends but can't see the share price of MPG (and the other 2 mentioned) doing much over the next year, eps with its current negative bias
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  6. #46
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    Hey nzx - I didn't realise how far mph has fallen. A 142 close is pretty terrible.

    Just confirms building stocks really out if favour.

    Rather strange as the building industry still seems to be pretty active at the moment. Talk of weakening economy because Christchurch rebuild peaked put punters off?
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  7. #47
    Hunting for more dog food Beagle's Avatar
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    Yep its all about forward looking perceptions. Well timed float that's worked well for the promoters.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Yep its all about forward looking perceptions. Well timed float that's worked well for the promoters.
    Yes, forward looking perceptions are important.

    The headlines say the economy is tanking ......not usually a good time for building related companies ....mpg share price under pressure.

    Great company though. They will continue to make. Decent chunk of money but maybe not as much as punters want.

    Glad I didn't hang around after the float for to long.

    Some 30% off its high will not please many. The market remembers this which means punters will never get excited with them again.

    One where watching the chart is important
    Last edited by winner69; 13-08-2015 at 08:14 PM.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    Some 30% off its high will not please many.
    Yep. Over 30% down on what I bought it at earlier in the year. Bad timing! Now an NZX price enquiry notice today.

    I don't see anything to justify the massive price drop. Yes Christchurch rebuild will peak and slow down but Auckland will steam ahead for years and all those houses need glass.

    I'm tempted to buy more.. Would it be good money after bad?

  10. #50
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    Not loved or wanted at the moment is it ...sinking lies lead balloon

    Forecast EPS march 16 us 11 cents to 14 cents. Obviously hose selling believe 11 cents (or less) so at 11/12 PE 130 could be right.

    I wouldn't buy anymore until carnage is over.

    ASM next week ....hope we hear more but I reckon they make only a bit less than what they said hey wold in IPO docs ....but thy seems enough to have pissed off the market

    A large proportion of the CBD rebuild in Chch has a heck of a lot of glass in them ....the construction material of choice now.

    Jeez 190 shareprice when I sold seems not that long ago.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  11. #51
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    Hi enzedex

    Welcome to the forum. I feel sorry for you. Its not a stock I really follow but the brokers seem to like it with a consensus valuation of $2.00
    http://www.4-traders.com/METRO-PERFO...972/consensus/

    In my view concerns over the Chch rebuild having peaked are probably a little overdone especially in as much as there's still a really rampant building boom going on in the much larger Auckland market.
    Consensus eps for FY16 is 15 cps. My usual personal yardstick I use for building companies is a PE of 10, because of the cyclical nature of their earnings. On this basis Fletcher Building is wildly overvalued and I have though as much for a VERY long time now and MPG is now slightly undervalued. Watch their response to the NZX price enquiry to see if that shed's any light on the situation.

    Hopefully Winner will share his greater expertise with regard to this stock shortly. In terms of throwing good money after bad...my personal viewpoint is I am reluctant to buy any stock when its established a clear trend downwards until there is clear evidence of the chart forming some sort of bottom. Fundamentally it must be approaching a value buy somewhere around these level's but it could well be a value trap and I'd prefer the chart (technical analysis) to be lining up with fundamental analysis before considering buying.

    Edit, he already has. I'd be attending the ASM and closely looking at the outlook before deciding to buy more if I were you.
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-08-2015 at 04:15 PM.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Another private equity company bringing a company with a chequered history to the market when the market is currently priced at 22 year high's on a forward PE basis.
    Yes this rush of IPO's is strategically timed and NO companies such as this which have cyclical earnings should not command a PE of early teens in anything other than an irrational market.

    Hirepool Mk2 anyone ? YAWN...
    I stand by this comment I made on page 1 of this thread on 2 July 2014. PE of 10 is the magic number for a small building products company. Whatever their real FY16 forecast is, multiply by 10 and that will give you an idea of where I see fair value. Probably the shares are fair / slightly good value now but with ALL the momentum downwards, the market can stay irrational longer than investors can stay liquid.

  13. #53
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    Sure is a sad looking chart

    Seems to have gone downhill since the half year announcement late May

    NPAT ahead of PFI but sales were down because of 'constraints and backlogs. in the industry

    The story was that this building cycle might not peak as high as forecast but would remain pretty high for longer. That's how I see it as well

    But selling has been relentless eh,

    If FY16 NPAT is say $20m odd that's 11/12 cents a share

    Rogers rule of thumb then share price 110-120

    Yes ASM will be telling - a few watching I would think

    Bad as I have said building industry stocks are not liked at the moment. Bad sentiment is hard to overcome, even though Mike Hosking says the economy is in good shape
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  14. #54
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    Down 30 cents in August alone and we're only just over half way through the month !! That's as ugly a drop as I've seen for a while...not surprised the NZX have a price enquiry, that's a shocker. Something not right. Bad news on the outlook coming at the ASM ??
    Last edited by Beagle; 17-08-2015 at 05:11 PM.

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Down 30 cents in August alone and we're only just over half way through the month !! That's as ugly a drop as I've seen for a while...not surprised the NZX have a price enquiry, that's a shocker. Something not right. Bad news on the outlook coming at the ASM ??
    Only been listed a year so not a good look is it.

    Methinks that whatever is behind the fall means the 'stench' will stay with them for many years. Could become a pariah of the market
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  16. #56
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    If any body reads the latest MBIE Construction Pipeline Report you would think that's the likes of Metro will be very busy for a few years. 'Unprecendented levels' of new building activity coming up .....and then Metro do heaps of retrofit double glazing and other work.


    Extract - New Zealand is building more than ever before and construction activity is forecast to hit unprecedented levels, according to the third National Construction Pipeline Report published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) today.

    http://www.mbie.govt.nz/news-and-med...ues-rapid-rise
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  17. #57
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    The share price started tumbling about the same time as the NZD v USD

    Most of their glass is imported ....will put margins under pressure

    Maybe that's the cause
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    ...Bad sentiment is hard to overcome, even though Mike Hosking says the economy is in good shape...
    Yes, but how is the sentiment around Mike Hosking at the moment?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nextbigthing View Post
    Yes, but how is the sentiment around Mike Hosking at the moment?
    ....you tell me, you be one of his biggest fans wouldn't you?

    I gave up on him in the morning .....Susie on National Program better even though that Guyon is a bit of twit.
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  20. #60
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    I'm with Winston - Hosking (and Larry Williams & Jamie McKay) are shameless Tory cheerleaders. By the way I was going to swap my FBU for MPG and thought I had missed the boat on timing - lucky miss!

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