MPG - Metro Glass

[BlackPeter]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtBEmtj4FaM Looks pretty good to me...definitely registers on the wag-o-meter...but a bit of a sleepy investment for me, happy for BP to do most of the barking Not sure many will bother going out and retrofitting double glazing, certainly we're not because I don't believe the ROI stacks up but there's a market there for people who want to be extra energy conscious for sure. Expansion into Australia looks sound to me.

Roger, double glazing is not about ROI. Double glazing is about living comfort, it is about living in a warm house and about drastically cutting cold drafts. It is as well about no condensation anymore on the windows and it is about a significant drop in overall humidity issues. It is as well about having a healthier family (less and shorter cold / flu type problems in winter).

We double glazed our home more than 15 years ago with low E windows, and gone are the times with condensation and cold drafts in the living area (lots of full-sized windows top to bottom). As well - our house is now much warmer in winter and much cooler in summer (and it can get hot in Canterbury - saves the money for the A/C). I don't think we saved a lot of money overall, but our home is so much warmer and liveable (*).

We paid at that time roughly $15k for the complete reglazing of the house (close to 40 windows), this is by now less than $1k per year (and the windows are as good as in the beginning. We think that the increased living comfort would be much more worth than the less than $1000 per year we effectively paid for it.

As well - the reglazing significantly increased the resale value of the house (not that we plan to sell) - i.e. at the end are we living in a much more comfortable and healthy home - for free ;

Discl: Nothing of above is influenced by my MPG share holding; By all means - go to the competition, but get some proper windows for your home. You deserve it!

(*) Admittedly - we did some other changes as well - removed the downlights and closed the holes (operating as chimney removing warm air) some idiot designed into the house and added another layer of (wool) insulation into the roof ... but the windows made in my view the largest contribution ...

[BlackPeter]

pretty ho - hum really still ticks my boxes of not much going on here type of stock.

follows building consents closely which are tracking down they have a 9 mth lag so this will show up in there figures shortly , commercial already showing a decline.
retro-fit wont happen as people are not going to spend 1000s on new windows as an upgrade. rather have a holiday flying air nz instead esp if theres nothing wrong with my single glass windows.

and they are not the cheapest in the market for residential.

so at this share price reflects boom times hate to think what share price is in bad times?

You are absolutely entitled to your view ... everybody is. If you are holding, than you clearly should follow your convictions and sell.

However - while all the bulls we reared over the years on our yard have been handsome, agile and strong, none of them was particularly good or successful in predicting the future (including their own) .

Sorry - couldn't resist ...

[BlackPeter]

You must love this stock ... not a dividend stripper myself, but could hardly have gone better (though admittedly TIL last week was a charm as well).

Maybe I should learn the secrets of the trade ;

[JeremyALD]

Pretty solid strategy presentation. Targeting 5% - 12% increase in revenue over the year and 20% increase on EBITDA. I might buy some more. My only concern is the link to construction and some risks in AU but at this SP she seems pretty solid.

[winner69]

Good that investor day seems to ignited the rocket under the share price - over $1.50 early next week before tracking to new highs

Market bigger now than back then

What was that high again ......hmmmmm

[Beagle]

Roger, double glazing is not about ROI. Double glazing is about living comfort, it is about living in a warm house and about drastically cutting cold drafts. It is as well about no condensation anymore on the windows and it is about a significant drop in overall humidity issues. It is as well about having a healthier family (less and shorter cold / flu type problems in winter).

We double glazed our home more than 15 years ago with low E windows, and gone are the times with condensation and cold drafts in the living area (lots of full-sized windows top to bottom). As well - our house is now much warmer in winter and much cooler in summer (and it can get hot in Canterbury - saves the money for the A/C). I don't think we saved a lot of money overall, but our home is so much warmer and liveable (*).

We paid at that time roughly $15k for the complete reglazing of the house (close to 40 windows), this is by now less than $1k per year (and the windows are as good as in the beginning. We think that the increased living comfort would be much more worth than the less than $1000 per year we effectively paid for it.

As well - the reglazing significantly increased the resale value of the house (not that we plan to sell) - i.e. at the end are we living in a much more comfortable and healthy home - for free ;

Discl: Nothing of above is influenced by my MPG share holding; By all means - go to the competition, but get some proper windows for your home. You deserve it!

(*) Admittedly - we did some other changes as well - removed the downlights and closed the holes (operating as chimney removing warm air) some idiot designed into the house and added another layer of (wool) insulation into the roof ... but the windows made in my view the largest contribution ...

Good points BP. Yes a very good divvy strip but I am impressed enough to hold so won't sell and strip it. Appreciate your input into this one.

[winner69]

BP - you been buying the shares Schroeders been disposing

No worries - just a rebalancing exercise for hem I suppose

[BlackPeter]

BP - you been buying the shares Schroeders been disposing

No worries - just a rebalancing exercise for hem I suppose

Nop - I filled my truck already at a lower price ; While it is tempting and while portfolio allocation policies are there to be broken, with MPG am I now definitely fully loaded and looking forward to the ride.

Good to see the SP tracking firmly above the MA100 .

[winner69]

REINZ report existing house sales for the last 3 months are down 25% on last year

There is a very strong correlation between house numbers and consents for new residential dwellings (lag about 6 months). Where one goes the other tends to.

Probably see 'weak' (lower than expected?) consent numbers over rest of 2017

Just saying.

[BlackPeter]

REINZ report existing house sales for the last 3 months are down 25% on last year

There is a very strong correlation between house numbers and consents for new residential dwellings (lag about 6 months). Where one goes the other tends to.

Probably see 'weak' (lower than expected?) consent numbers over rest of 2017

Just saying.

Bad times for all these people without a place to live? While the correlation you are talking about might have been relevant in times when prices dropped due to lower demand for houses (e.g. after the GFC when everybody was looking for greener pastures) am I not sure, whether this is true as well at current.

I think the recent government actions reduced the speculative froth from the second hand housing market ... and obviously, sellers need a bit of time to get used to lower prices. This works however only if buyers have another option (like building instead of buying). As long as there are 10 thousands sleeping in cars and garages, as long as we have a net immigration gain of 70k plus pa, as long as our build rates are below the required replacement numbers and as long as our infrastructure is highly overstretched and outdated (heard recently about huge numbers of new school buildings they need to build and these have windows as well) am I not too worried.

Maybe the time to the elections is bit slower than normal in spring (people need to wait to find out whether they can stay in a stable New Zealand under National or whether they better queue up at the departure gates to escape the chaos under Peters, Little, Turei and Shaw), but after the elections I'd expect a big push into new buildings. No matter who wins - either people are building themselves or the social housing sector gets a big push.

Did you hear the one that our building industry is not even capable to build all the required hotels in Auckland to house visitors for the America's cup? Do you realise that our building industry struggles to keep up with the Christchurch demand? Chinese investors are jumping in to build now apartments in Christchurch (due to FBU too dumb to do their job and too busy making losses during a boom) - and they will import some building materials as well as workers, but maybe we can at least provide the windows?

The future looks bright and opportunities are endless ... particularly if you look through the windscreen instead of into the rear mirror .