MPG - Metro Glass

[Hoop]

The TAers who sold out at 140...bought in when?

Mid-July at $1.42 a TA timed buy in by the investor influenced by the so-called good future fundamentals** would drive the "FA undervalued" share price back up to the good ol' days of 2 bucks a share..The mass TA sell signals at $1.40, a couple of weeks before the Annual Shareholders meeting was a "leaky boat" warning sign generated from perhaps insider and/or rumour selling that the meeting may not contain good news, just more promises.....

** There seemed to be tangible evidence that MPG business is doing very well ..everyone is busy with high demand and filling orders.

[Hoop]

Absolutely. All well in good to use TA and it definitely has its place but ultimately fundamentals are what drive long term share price. TA always confirms something has happened... afterwards. Underlying business valuation is key.

Housing shortage = key topic for election, likely to see continued housing construction for the next few years = sales
New market penetration (Aus) = earnings growth
Directors buying = skin in the game and a very well known signal the stock is undervalued
Large insto buying with almost 10% holding = likely to have done more research and understand the numbers more than anyone on this forum
Long term incentive plans in place based on shareholder returns = commitment to redeeming prior performance
Attractive dividend yields = beats the bank.

This stock ticks a lot of boxes, don't be scared by a doomsday graph.

"...TA always confirms something has happened... afterwards...." or TA has picked up trading behaviour from the privileged few who have either gained update Fundamental information or a rumour that most ordinary folk like us don't hear until the official announcement ...

Even people who know a bit about basic TA know its called a chart..not a graph...I respect peoples opinions but it is never a good look opinionating on a discipline you know nothing about..maybe reading a book or two on the subject may help..eh

[winner69]

Absolutely. All well in good to use TA and it definitely has its place but ultimately fundamentals are what drive long term share price. TA always confirms something has happened... afterwards. Underlying business valuation is key.

Housing shortage = key topic for election, likely to see continued housing construction for the next few years = sales
New market penetration (Aus) = earnings growth
Directors buying = skin in the game and a very well known signal the stock is undervalued
Large insto buying with almost 10% holding = likely to have done more research and understand the numbers more than anyone on this forum
Long term incentive plans in place based on shareholder returns = commitment to redeeming prior performance
Attractive dividend yields = beats the bank.

This stock ticks a lot of boxes, don't be scared by a doomsday graph.

FUNDAMENTALS HAVEN'T CHANGED SINCE THE IPO

Headhunter - yes strong 'fundamentals' that haven't changed since the IPO. Clear growth strategy, perceived market tailwinds and aspirational targets. Their story hasn't changed (nor has the pretty pictures in their presentations)

BUT THEY HAVE A HABIT OF DISAPPOINTING = SHARE PRICE COLLAPSES

May 15 mentions industry capacity slowing sales down. Share price falls from 160 to 130

Nov 16 they mention sales good but their own capacity stretched. Share price falls from 220 to 185

Feb 17 they say 'sales lagging behind expectations'. Share price falls from 185 to 140

Aug 17 they mention that word 'flat'. Share price falls from 140 to 105

MARKETS DON'T LIKE COMPANIES WITH A HISTORY OF DISAPPOINTMENTS

Headhunter - you could name several in this boat. Piss the fund managers off and the potential perceived intrinsic value will never be achieved. The stock will always be cheap / undervalued to fundamentals eh

METRO PROBABLY HEAD BACK TO 130 /140 BUT THEN WHAT - NOVEMBER IS KEY

Half year announcement better be good or else whammo again - even though the fundamentals are unchanged and remain strong. What you reckon they'll say

[Fatboyj]

Thanks winner for the informative write up. I'll be so happy if this goes back to 1.40, I've learnt im not happy holding yo yo - ing shares and will out when possible. Hope to get better at timing by then.

[TheHunter]

Nicely said Winner, sums it up nicely. Completely agree with the valuation by my calcs, with the uncertainty factored in.

Labour party looking to invest a lot in warm homes... election likely to impact expectations. Management buying in my mind signals commitment to redeeming themselves. Definitely a wait and see.

[Brain]

Nigel Rigby the CEO has just purchased $300,000 worth of shares. This is no token amount that we see in the purchasing behaviour of other directors or management of other companies. Either the guy is a total idiot or he correctly believes the company is undervalued. I don't think he is an idiot (I went to the AGM) so I have purchased more shares but it is still only 5 % of my shareholding and I am in the red on this one and will be more than happy when it returns to the black as I am certain it will.

[winner69]

Nigel Rigby the CEO has just purchased $300,000 worth of shares. This is no token amount that we see in the purchasing behaviour of other directors or management of other companies. Either the guy is a total idiot or he correctly believes the company is undervalued. I don't think he is an idiot (I went to the AGM) so I have purchased more shares but it is still only 5 % of my shareholding and I am in the red on this one and will be more than happy when it returns to the black as I am certain it will.

Already had 5.4 million so just a little top up

May have paid for these with his recent dividend - a personal DRP maybe



Think his other shares was just his bonus anyway

[winner69]

All this talk about Auckland housing shortage going to be a bonanza for Metro

This guy reckons its all a fallacy ......and unless the government actuallybuilds and subsidises new builds (affordable/ social) nothing will change

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/HousingFallacyAug17.pdf

[Brain]

No matter what the origins of the money it is still 300 grand. You can buy a fairly decent car or boat with that sort of money rather than throwing it at a company that you know is a pup because of your insider view. If I was Rigby and I had a view that the company is a hopeless case I think I would start building a new deck.

[percy]

No matter what the origins of the money it is still 300 grand. You can buy a fairly decent car or boat with that sort of money rather than throwing it at a company that you know is a pup because of your insider view. If I was Rigby and I had a view that the company is a hopeless case I think I would start building a new deck.

Not a good sign when the CEO shows poor judgement.