Quote Originally Posted by bullfrog View Post
Really like this company, and have done very nicely out of the recent rise in share price however, I do wonder about the long term future of ERD.

I know that sometimes negative comments go down like a waxed anvil on this forum, but if I’ve thought of it, others who are far smarter than me will be thinking it too…

First of all, there’s the ubiquitous installation of internet in every new car. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t this allow new cars to be easily located if they are stolen? I’ve also heard that software in a Benz can now choose the right gear for the next bend by referencing your position with your map position. Then there was the thought that Google would develop into a self drive car manufacturer, I don’t think this will happen but it shows how the internet is already an integral part of every new car or truck.

On this internet/car theme, and bringing out my crystal ball, lets throw mixed reality into the errr mix. This is where software scans your immediate environment and overlays information on it. I can just imagine driving down the road, and each window of your car will have a heads up display showing adverts and sale specials overlaying the shops you are passing, a marketers dream. The tech is all there, just need to join the dots.

Finally, if you talk to Gen X(?), they’re not interested in driving, they’re interested in getting there and on the way catching up with the world on their phones/in-car internet device. Look at the stats for driving while on the phone. Self drive cars with wifi is what the next gen want.

So with all this in-car inter-connectivity, and it will be pretty high spec stuff, why would businesses lease a GPS software gizmo when the Google/Microsoft/Apple/Xero(!) car app can give them everything using factory pre-installed hardware coming as standard?

I believe ERD need to be ready to migrate away from their lease-a-box business and get into using the vehicle computer to run their software… take a leaf out of PPH’s business model.
Mmh - not sure you fully understand ERD's business and customer base.

Couple of things:

ERD are serving truck companies, not Gen X drivers (or non-drivers). Not that many in window ads and other gadgets in trucks (and I doubt the authorities would allow this in private cars either) ... and yes, it is correct and absolutely desirable that the company can track their vehicle wherever it is.

Self driving trucks? Absolutely - and they wouldn't change ERD's business case a bit. Trucks still would need to pay RUC.

And the other issue - to pay road user charges you can't just load an app on any platform - the authorities need to approve the combination of hardware and software before they accept this unit as a legit and temper-proof way to pay the RUC. Not sure I'd expect this to happen anytime soon on the onboard computer of any vehicle. Sure - it should be possible, but even then it is no advantage for fleet operators. They don't want a different system for each truck depending on make and year - they want a system which allows them to treat all trucks the same.