ERD - ERoad. (Transport sector technology)

[thebusinessman]

If she gets to .50 I'm buying more!

[BlackPeter]

If she gets to .50 I'm buying more!

Just curious - while I can understand people buying deep value, where exactly do you see it here?

Is it the accumulation of losses? Is it the ineptitude to get the US market profitable? Is it the aging technology anybody else can build as well? Is it the second class fleet management solution?

Surely - its not because some people once have been prepared to pay more for this share? I guess its one of these companies which promised growth for more than a decade without ever delivering. Does this make them attractive to you?

Is it their consistency to disappoint shareholders?

[thebusinessman]

Just quickly, and I'm happy to elaborate more later, I have worked in tech for a while and there are plenty of sub-optimal tech solutions that do well because they are "sticky" ie. once installed, they stay. I think ERD have a good NZ business and I'm willing to forgive their destruction of capital in the US markets mostly because I didn't invest back then at those prices and I feel the opportunity there for them is still reasonable. I feel that overall they have good chance at share price recovery over the next few years, certainly not back into the 4's and 5's, but I don't need that level for this to be a good punt.

[BlackPeter]

Just quickly, and I'm happy to elaborate more later, I have worked in tech for a while and there are plenty of sub-optimal tech solutions that do well because they are "sticky" ie. once installed, they stay. I think ERD have a good NZ business and I'm willing to forgive their destruction of capital in the US markets mostly because I didn't invest back then at those prices and I feel the opportunity there for them is still reasonable. I feel that overall they have good chance at share price recovery over the next few years, certainly not back into the 4's and 5's, but I don't need that level for this to be a good punt.

Fair enough. I agree, that they have a good chance to be sticky in NZ (and probably Australia as well). Haven't really done the numbers to check how much his stickiness might be worth, but yes, if they stop their US bleeding and just help Kiwis and Ossies to pay their RUC, they must have some value.

Having said that - there still is an IF in above statement. Tough for any company to give up their dreams, stop filling a bottomless hole and just focus on making money.

[thebusinessman]

I agree. I'm going to crunch some new numbers soon so will share my further thoughts.

[Rawz]

Results out tomorrow and the cats out of the bag

[Bikeguy]

What are the predictions for tomorrow? Anyone prepared to share?
My belief is a 3-5 million loss…

[Rawz]

What are the predictions for tomorrow? Anyone prepared to share?
My belief is a 3-5 million loss…

yes agree with that. maybe an asset sale or patnership in north America or capital injection or something thrown in there too...

[ronaldson]

The likely result has been well signaled via the guidance update announcement on 27 February and the Investor Day presentation on 21 March, both of which were very close to y/e FY23 so almost certain to be accurate.

The nuance tomorrow will be seen in progress over the recent months, and how it is anticipated to be going forward. The Cortex acquisition doesn't seem to have been transformative yet in North America, but Australia and NZ are solid. Some buy interest today suggests folk are positioning expectations following recent lows which seem to have as much resulted from lack of liquidity after falling out of the NZX50 index as from adverse news.

It is clear patience is required if a turn around story is to play out here.

[winner69]

Results out tomorrow and the cats out of the bag

Might do a GTK and go up 50% in quick time