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Thread: Eroad IPO

  1. #31
    Member Ace's Avatar
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    ERD seems to have some promising prospects and I have been contemplating getting in before the recent announcement regarding the California Road Charge Pilot with Caltrans.
    In response to benjitara, as many people have mentioned the share price includes a large premium for the potential ERD provides and their current foothold in their respective market, that being said there are a few things you all might find interesting, I know I did.

    What I found interesting is that ERD has a few competitors in the US, and would like to discuss a few statements made by ERD, firstly, "Caltrans selects EROAD as technology provider to California Road Charge Pilot". What they failed to mention is that there are three other firms that were selected for the California Road Charge Pilot, including Azuga, Intelligent Mechatronic Systems Inc. and a state-run service supported by Arvato Mobility Solutions. Although EROAD was selected to service heavy vehicles in the pilot - which is ultimately their forte. That being said, it does not in anyway discredit from EROADs achievement and success in tapping into the North American market especially with regards to getting a strong foothold before the US fed. mandate takes full effect - and it still currently it appears that they are one of a few ELD/WMT providers for heavy vehicles, just a word of caution regarding the level of optimism seen here derived from the announcements.

    Another statement which captured my attention was a statement made around the time of the November announcement regarding the US Federal Mandate, "We currently expect EROAD to be the only ELD provider able to offer customers both ELD services and Oregon WMT services." They may be the only ELD provider to provide ELD services AND Oregon WMT services, however they are NOT the only company to provide ELD services OR WMT services. Personally, I found that the statement had no reason to be there other than to imply that they are the 'only' provider for these services which isn't the case - they are the only provider for BOTH services. A little bit of semantics here but I thought I'd mention it.
    Regarding IMS, they have also been awarded a Road User Charge contract from Oregon state mid March last year limited to light duty vehicles (cars and trucks), and I don't think there's anything stopping them from tending to heavy duty vehicles as IMS also offers fleet management, RUC and a whole range of other services. They are even tapping into US insurance companies to provide them with data and information about drivers which can then be used to calculate premiums however there appears to be a clout of negative press regarding the use of IMS's DriveSync and light duty vehicles.

    With all that being said I still believe EROAD has amazing potential for growth and expansion especially into the North American market and their niche for heavy vehicles.
    Theres a whole lot of other things I'd like to post but I won't bore you all to death and I'm getting tired haha. I have attached some of the articles for reference below and hope you might find them useful.


    Interested to hear your opinions,
    Ace.

    http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/paffairs/ne...16/16pr019.htm
    http://www.itsinternational.com/cate...tion-projects/
    Last edited by Ace; 22-03-2016 at 12:46 AM.
    Toward his critics, the artist harbours a defensive ace: knowledge that the future will erase the present.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace View Post
    What I found interesting is that ERD has a few competitors in the US, and would like to discuss a few statements made by ERD, firstly, "Caltrans selects EROAD as technology provider to California Road Charge Pilot". What they failed to mention is that there are three other firms that were selected for the California Road Charge Pilot, including Azuga, Intelligent Mechatronic Systems Inc. and a state-run service supported by Arvato Mobility Solutions. Although EROAD was selected to service heavy vehicles in the pilot - which is ultimately their forte. That being said, it does not in anyway discredit from EROADs achievement and success in tapping into the North American market especially with regards to getting a strong foothold before the US fed. mandate takes full effect - and it still currently it appears that they are one of a few ELD/WMT providers for heavy vehicles, just a word of caution regarding the level of optimism seen here derived from the announcements.
    It might be worth noting that in the California road charge pilot, only 50 vehicles (out of 5000) are trucks. Is that the extent of EROAD's participation?

    http://www.californiaroadchargepilot...hic-Matrix.png

  3. #33
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    Is this announcement good or bad?
    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245046.pdf


    Share price nothing to write home about at the moment

    Worth while having a closer look at? Might be really cheap?
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  4. #34
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Is this announcement good or bad?
    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245046.pdf


    Share price nothing to write home about at the moment

    Worth while having a closer look at? Might be really cheap?
    Well the market did not seem to like the announcement.The sp is down 16 cents today.8.6%.
    The present downtrend remains intact.
    Again testing Feb's $1.70.
    Volume through at $1.70.Buyer for 3,000 at $1.52.
    Last edited by percy; 03-10-2016 at 03:42 PM.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Is this announcement good or bad?
    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245046.pdf


    Share price nothing to write home about at the moment

    Worth while having a closer look at? Might be really cheap?
    Well, I sold out some time ago after management did that as well ... and was proven quite right in doing so;

    I think key is the following sentence:
    with the Established Market ahead of expectations and the Commercial Market behind expectations.
    Just try to decipher the announcement based on my fading memories of this company - they had already a quite good stand in NZ and ok-ish in Australia ("the established" market) and seem to have made some more progress in that (which is good). However - the "pie in the sky" is the US market (which they call for some reasons "Commercial Market"). Given that they used to pump millions into this market are 800 more subscribers in a market 100 times the size of NZ not overwhelming. Looks like progress in the US is slower than they wished for ... and they really need the US to grow to make their plans reality.

    The other thing is ... analysts (no doubt based on company data) predicted a forward CAGR of above 60%. If their growth in the first half was only 18% (I know, its a crude measure, given that they just indicate the growth in contracted units, which is not all of their business), than they need to hurry up to reach the above 60% for the full year).

    So - on a first impression and without lots of analysis would I say, it is great that they start reporting on some measures. They might have as well enough revenue to not require another CR (obviously depending on how much they currently pour into the US) ... but the numbers are likely to underwhelm the markets.

    By all means - look into the company, but I don't think there is a rush to buy - though spec stocks can obviously bounce all around the place without a good reason.

    Overall - I think it is an interesting company ... and they are on Chris Lee's radar as well (though not sure, whether he puts them at current into the "good" or the "not sure" basket). However - management sort of inexperienced with running a public company - and I was annoyed when management sold their shares prior to announcing a quite significant profit downgrade (obviously clever, but leaves a sour taste in the mouth)

    DYOR;

    Discl: don't hold;
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  6. #36
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    Interesting that a few days ago there was a reallly high volume day .......and the share price fell 15 cents

    Just saying
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  7. #37
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    No worries winner. ERD looks like it has a great product and a big potential market to go for. I have talked to a few truckies who have the product installed and feedback has been good.
    Just watching and waiting for the downtrend to end. Don't hold but watching...


    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Interesting that a few days ago there was a reallly high volume day .......and the share price fell 15 cents


    Just saying

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Overall - I think it is an interesting company ... and they are on Chris Lee's radar as well (though not sure, whether he puts them at current into the "good" or the "not sure" basket). However - management sort of inexperienced with running a public company - and I was annoyed when management sold their shares prior to announcing a quite significant profit downgrade (obviously clever, but leaves a sour taste in the mouth)
    What does he know!, he has been involved in some bad investments over the years just like the rest of them and then tries to come out squeaky clean. Sth Canterbury Finance being one. The only thing he is good at is trying to make up what sounds to be a legit story only to be found factually incorrect. See his recent ramblings on Martin Hawes where he has had to rescind his comments. LOL
    Stick to the strategy

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
    What does he know!, he has been involved in some bad investments over the years just like the rest of them and then tries to come out squeaky clean. Sth Canterbury Finance being one. The only thing he is good at is trying to make up what sounds to be a legit story only to be found factually incorrect. See his recent ramblings on Martin Hawes where he has had to rescind his comments. LOL
    Agree with your comments,however I do not know of one commentator whose "future" comments have been 100%.Most commentators such as Brian Gaynor work on historical facts.And yes Lee tries to cover his mistakes.
    I actually enjoy his news letter.
    Back to Eroad.Not a great announcement today that the Financial director is leaving.Often seen as a warning signal.
    ps.I would not seek financial advice from Martin Hawes,well not sharemarket advice.
    Last edited by percy; 04-10-2016 at 07:53 AM.

  10. #40
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Hmm - interesting: So they made an announcement commenting on their share price (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ERD/announcements/290395), flag this announcement as "not price sensitive" and the SP goes up by 20% - what is wrong with this picture?
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  11. #41
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    NZ punters are slow to catch on and should have read the original announcement mor thoroughly

    NZX should issue a speeding ticket I reckon

    That trade of 100,000 signals confidence
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    NZ punters are slow to catch on and should have read the original announcement mor thoroughly

    NZX should issue a speeding ticket I reckon

    That trade of 100,000 signals confidence
    The Board reckons the share price doesn't reflect the performance and value of the company. Why are the Board members not scooping up shares at these bargains prices.... ?

    Guess they probably all in a lock up pending the results in november.

  13. #43
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    Its always bit of worry when a company has to explain punters how undervalued their sp is relative to company's performance....hmmm!!!

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Its always bit of worry when a company has to explain punters how undervalued their sp is relative to company's performance....hmmm!!!
    It worked though
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    It worked though
    A day's trading of whopping 160k odd shares...will wait and see

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