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  1. #7801
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    Hi all, is the Forsyth Barr analysis report available online anywhere or if anybody has a copy they are willing to share that would be much appreciated?

    Edit: all sorted now, thanks a lot.
    Last edited by sampson; 23-01-2021 at 09:11 AM. Reason: All sorted

  2. #7802
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Why is it that over the last 4 quarters the average gain (development margin) per new unit sale has fallen quite a llot.

    In H219 average gain per unit was $284k, $221k in H120, $147k in H220 and now $117k in H121

    They'll say mix - type of units and region - but I reckon there has to be more to it than that

    That's some decline - answer that and it will to a large degree explain why they sell heaps more and make less.
    If you took a rational approach, what would be the reasons a development margin may be small? This is an actual question, non rhetorical, I’m unsure what variables come into a development margin.

    Oceania obviously would not be selling units at discounted prices without explaining/giving a reason for it. On the other side, is the development costs significantly increased on the particular units they sold? They explained in the AGM they select building companies in the mid range of expenses, are there other consenting costs etc that were a part of these units? Perhaps our view of what a good average margin was has been skewed by significant selling in the Auckland region over the past years, when in reality this is the true average?

  3. #7803
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    40% average margin which was achieved in recent half’s was clearly unsustainable, it was boosted by the huge gains in property value over the 3-5 years it takes from buying land to getting units built. I would expect the long term average to be between 20-25%. May pay to look over the last 5 years (or further If possible) for the margin of all the listed village operators to get some sense of what you can expect going forward. The margin achieved this half May even be higher than long term average.

  4. #7804
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow Leopard View Post

    Bonus question:
    How much do they really make day to day on the care stuff?
    Some analysts take off realised gains from reported profit and assume what’s left is the profit from running villages and caring for residents.

    On that basis profit before tax of doing these things is a LOSS of a about $9m
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #7805
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre View Post
    I think it would be very helpful for all posters if in the future you notified on ST whenever a member is banned and for what reason.

    This action will avoid speculation and not only provide clear guidance to everyone about the type of behaviour that is unacceptable, but also should serve to minimise the number of future transgressions.

    What do you say?
    I say you're banned for a month.

  6. #7806
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Some analysts take off realised gains from reported profit and assume what’s left is the profit from running villages and caring for residents.

    On that basis profit before tax of doing these things is a LOSS of a about $9m
    But they would have you believe profit from care was $11m ....
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7807
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Some analysts take off realised gains from reported profit and assume what’s left is the profit from running villages and caring for residents.

    On that basis profit before tax of doing these things is a LOSS of a about $9m

    And the Feb 21 dividend reduced by 43.47% on what was paid a year earlier ..

  8. #7808
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    When did the $20 million profit difference in question hit OCA's bank account seems to be a good question


    The reduced dividend seems to be the answer to that one ..

  9. #7809
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    Surprised they didn't use the old Comprehensive Income trick again this time

    Comprehensive Income was $57.0m (v reported NPAT of $24.8m)

    After all $32m revaluation gains are real even though unrealised
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #7810
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Surprised they didn't use the old Comprehensive Income trick again this time

    Comprehensive Income was $57.0m (v reported NPAT of $24.8m)

    After all $32m revaluation gains are real even though unrealised

    Real enough .. but they can mysteriously evaporate which could be as early as the next reporting period ..


    then they become mysteriously unreal & probably still unrealised ..


    Whatever happened to 'Beancounter's Reporting on Conservative side' with some of these listed Outfits ?


    At least back then everyone knew where they stood without all the Mickey Mouse unrealised revaluations
    being booked as actual trading surpluses above the line in some sectors ..
    Last edited by nztx; 24-01-2021 at 07:38 AM. Reason: add more

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