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23-01-2021, 09:20 AM
#7801
Member
Hi all, is the Forsyth Barr analysis report available online anywhere or if anybody has a copy they are willing to share that would be much appreciated?
Edit: all sorted now, thanks a lot.
Last edited by sampson; 23-01-2021 at 10:11 AM.
Reason: All sorted
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23-01-2021, 09:22 AM
#7802
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Why is it that over the last 4 quarters the average gain (development margin) per new unit sale has fallen quite a llot.
In H219 average gain per unit was $284k, $221k in H120, $147k in H220 and now $117k in H121
They'll say mix - type of units and region - but I reckon there has to be more to it than that
That's some decline - answer that and it will to a large degree explain why they sell heaps more and make less.
If you took a rational approach, what would be the reasons a development margin may be small? This is an actual question, non rhetorical, I’m unsure what variables come into a development margin.
Oceania obviously would not be selling units at discounted prices without explaining/giving a reason for it. On the other side, is the development costs significantly increased on the particular units they sold? They explained in the AGM they select building companies in the mid range of expenses, are there other consenting costs etc that were a part of these units? Perhaps our view of what a good average margin was has been skewed by significant selling in the Auckland region over the past years, when in reality this is the true average?
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23-01-2021, 10:35 AM
#7803
40% average margin which was achieved in recent half’s was clearly unsustainable, it was boosted by the huge gains in property value over the 3-5 years it takes from buying land to getting units built. I would expect the long term average to be between 20-25%. May pay to look over the last 5 years (or further If possible) for the margin of all the listed village operators to get some sense of what you can expect going forward. The margin achieved this half May even be higher than long term average.
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23-01-2021, 12:49 PM
#7804
Originally Posted by Snow Leopard
Bonus question:
How much do they really make day to day on the care stuff?
Some analysts take off realised gains from reported profit and assume what’s left is the profit from running villages and caring for residents.
On that basis profit before tax of doing these things is a LOSS of a about $9m
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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24-01-2021, 12:30 AM
#7805
Originally Posted by pierre
I think it would be very helpful for all posters if in the future you notified on ST whenever a member is banned and for what reason.
This action will avoid speculation and not only provide clear guidance to everyone about the type of behaviour that is unacceptable, but also should serve to minimise the number of future transgressions.
What do you say?
I say you're banned for a month.
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24-01-2021, 08:24 AM
#7806
Originally Posted by winner69
Some analysts take off realised gains from reported profit and assume what’s left is the profit from running villages and caring for residents.
On that basis profit before tax of doing these things is a LOSS of a about $9m
But they would have you believe profit from care was $11m ....
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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24-01-2021, 08:25 AM
#7807
Originally Posted by winner69
Some analysts take off realised gains from reported profit and assume what’s left is the profit from running villages and caring for residents.
On that basis profit before tax of doing these things is a LOSS of a about $9m
And the Feb 21 dividend reduced by 43.47% on what was paid a year earlier ..
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24-01-2021, 08:28 AM
#7808
When did the $20 million profit difference in question hit OCA's bank account seems to be a good question
The reduced dividend seems to be the answer to that one ..
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24-01-2021, 08:29 AM
#7809
Surprised they didn't use the old Comprehensive Income trick again this time
Comprehensive Income was $57.0m (v reported NPAT of $24.8m)
After all $32m revaluation gains are real even though unrealised
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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24-01-2021, 08:32 AM
#7810
Last edited by nztx; 24-01-2021 at 08:38 AM.
Reason: add more
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