OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[James108]

Lease, check the presentation.

[winner69]

Good to hear Oceania's head nurse on the radio this morning saying the government needs to put aged care residents and staff higher up on the vaccination priority list

She sounded quite passionate

[Lease]

Lease, check the presentation.

Found. Thank you.

[winner69]

Good to hear Oceania's head nurse on the radio this morning saying the government needs to put aged care residents and staff higher up on the vaccination priority list

She sounded quite passionate

You can hear Dr Frances here

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/...d-care-sector/

[WAIKEN]

1H21 result summary

	1H20	1H21	% change	1H21E FB	Actual vs FB
Care fees	78.0	81.5	4%	80.7	1%
Care DMF	3.5	5.4	54%	5.6	-4%
Village DMF	10.3	12.9	25%	11.5	12%
Village fees	5.4	4.4	-18%	5.0	-12%
Resale gains	8.2	10.4	27%	6.9	51%
New sale gains	18.7	17.0	-9%	16.4	4%
Other	0.6	0.4	-34%	0.5	-15%
Total revenue	124.7	132.0	6%	126.7	4%
Total costs	90.7	96.6	6%	94.3	2%
EBITDA	34.0	35.5	4%	32.3	10%
Depreciation & amortisation	7.1	8.1	13%	7.8	3%
EBIT	26.9	27.4	2%	24.5	12%
Net interest	2.8	4.0	42%	3.9	4%
Underlying profit	24.1	23.4	-3%	20.6	13%
Annuity EBITDA	15.3	18.4	20%	15.9	16%
Operating cash flow	57.0	74.6	31%	68.1	10%
EPS (cents)	3.9	4.0	1%	3.3	20%
DPS (cents)	2.1	1.3	-38%	2.3	-42%
Sales - new units	84	145	73%	110	32%
New sales margin (%)	36%	25%	-12%	26%	-1%
Sales - resold units	102	123	21%	110	12%
Resales margin (%)	23%	21%	-2%	17%	4%

Our eps is 4 cps the FB commentary
The average PE of ARV SUM and RYM is 28.11
Assuming the second half eps will also be 4 cps share then lets assume 8 cps for full year
Multiply 8 by 28.11 and I get a comparable price for OCA of 2.25
Any comments

[winner69]

I’ve read the preso and the interim

All positives .....stuff all negative thoughts

Once sanity returns to market I reckon we could see OCA close higher today ..maybe 152

[Joh13]

Further acquisitions in the coming months... Reduced dividend for extra COVID cost precaution seems to be one reason for the reduction in the dividend which I think is a good move. Glad they have reduced their debt a little for the time being. NAV increase to $1.24 and good increase in Net cash flow from operating activities.
The result has beaten analysts expectations.


Quick calculation looks around $50M UNPAT for the 10 months and $60M annualised.

Overall good result.

[allfromacell]

I’ve read the preso and the interim

All positives .....stuff all negative thoughts

Once sanity returns to market I reckon we could see OCA close higher today ..maybe 152

Did you listen to the webcast and Q & A? Some good questions asked, seems development margins mostly effected by the mix of properties sold, all those expensive Sands apartments sold last period I guess.

[YoungBull]

Can we expect the same earnings in 2H? I thought the AGM stated that the 10month calendar year won’t be the only impact on earnings, there was a slowdown in the December period. They believed there has been significant re uptake in the past week however. I’m pleased to see that they are reasonably confident that the concerns regarding a sharing of capital gains will likely not come to pass, and they are focused on acquisitions as they recognise the current pipeline will eventually end. They anticipate funding from GOVT in their annual budgeting, which should relieve pressure. I think long term holders should be pleased today. Again, my young, inexperienced take.

[Mudfish]

Nice post Waiken. The numbers all look very positive and mostly ahead of FB. My struggle is how this does not transform into stronger Underlying Profit. Any ideas? Also, I'm not sure what PE to apply to OCA yet as it's so close to a proven and accepted model but not quite there yet. Of course this is the million dollar question.