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25-09-2020, 05:33 PM
#6571
Last edited by Beagle; 25-09-2020 at 05:34 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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25-09-2020, 09:08 PM
#6572
Originally Posted by Beagle
So far this theory which appears to have no factual basis is working. Is it a coincidence that the very day they announce a bond issue the shares break out of their recent trading range or might this theory have some validity ?
The value of marketing clearly demonstrated , perhaps all companies should take note that it is more rewarding to promote than to perform.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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25-09-2020, 09:24 PM
#6573
Originally Posted by peat
The value of marketing clearly demonstrated , perhaps all companies should take note that it is more rewarding to promote than to perform.
Yes, I noted over at HGH the other day they were making noises about the SP not reflecting the true value and exploring ways to make amends. Will watch with (vested) interest to see what cunning stunts they come up with.
I think there may be something in your theory there, Beagle, about the bond issue possibly putting this meaty platter under the big dogs noses. Either that or enough of the right people got a good vibe from yesterday's presso.
Either which way, I only see big upside from here, especially when one compares it to SUM others.
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26-09-2020, 08:34 AM
#6574
Telling the world they’ve got $125m extra lending facilities from their bankers would be so ho hum boring news
But getting $125m in a bond issue is a lot more exciting eh ....and something punters notice.
Hope they put it to good use ...too much cash burns holes in one pockets
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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27-09-2020, 09:18 AM
#6575
Last edited by Maverick; 27-09-2020 at 09:37 AM.
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27-09-2020, 11:12 AM
#6576
Originally Posted by Maverick
After a couple of sleeps now to mull over the ASM a little more I'm gonna follow Beagles FY upgrade and do the same to mine.
There were a couple of things I didn't initially consider when updating the sheets;
-Those extra 26% of "new sales " Earl mentions for the first 3 months would translate into meaningful increased DMFs for this FY as they happened early in the period.
-The built up empty "resale " stock at 2020 FY end (due to the timing of the ist lockdown) will have also been unwound now given the hot market.
Beagles estimate of underlying FY 75m is about where I got to as well,it's even a little light. So this year we are in close agreement.
These extra Cashflows will keep Winner happy and the Fridays buy/sell chart will keep Baabaa happy.
In fact whether you look at this stock through the lense of; underlying earnings, asset backing, yield, growth , buy/sell spread….. everyone must be happy.
It's going to be a very good week and an even better 4 months ahead.
Time to dust off the old OCA saying…..can't have too many!
LOL I love it. We should be kind on ourselves and say we were always right...just got the timing a bit wrong
Yeah we're very close this year in the low to mid $70m range on an annualized basis, around ~ $60m reported underlying profit for the 10 months to 31 March 2021.
Bargain to be had here...one of only a tiny number left on the NZX.
One wonders where people are going to allocate their MET funds when that gets taken over. Hmmm
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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27-09-2020, 12:04 PM
#6577
To be honest OCA has been a poor 'long term' investment thus far since IPO in terms of capital gains, it would have been better 'short term' to have traded it, with hindsight.
But for those who genuinely are in for the long term and do believe the business strategy and the recurring encouraging signs of good execution now passing the inflection point, OCA has presented outstanding accumulation opportunities. Not everyone can throw huge $ into a share in one go, hoping to have 'timed' their entry well. Then who would've seen Covid coming and the opportunity to buy below IPO, well below NTA and smash ones holding average price, which in effect has substituted for lack of capital gains.
The simple line closing price chart shows the long term 'resistance band' that the SP is working through now in a 6 month uptrend from the Covid low. A recent 'golden cross' (50MA crosses up through the 200MA) is encouraging, the SP has performed well in the past when this happens, only to be dealt to by some unexpected event later. The Macquarie sell down for example was prescient for its exit price, but also damn lucky preceding Covid. Friday was an encouraging breakout of the closing price line resistance $1.03-$1.05, now support.
Maybe people are waking up to the potential of OCA now that it's through the inflection point of its business strategy, the sector laggard presents a rare value investment in the current market, imho.
GLTAH
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27-09-2020, 04:12 PM
#6578
What we need now is a rave review of Oceania by Oliver in the NZ Herald.
Oliver was a bit down on the sector a few months ago but seeing it’s all bright for Oceania I’m sure he could come up with a good positive article explaining how the Oceania model is coming right and that’s past it’s inflexion point.
Maybe drunken monkeys read the Herald
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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27-09-2020, 05:17 PM
#6579
Originally Posted by winner69
What we need now is a rave review of Oceania by Oliver in the NZ Herald.
Oliver was a bit down on the sector a few months ago but seeing it’s all bright for Oceania I’m sure he could come up with a good positive article explaining how the Oceania model is coming right and that’s past it’s inflexion point.
Maybe drunken monkeys read the Herald
Cold brass monkeys too. I got a free month of the print edition in August so that I could have some paper to light the kindling for the log burner! Another small TD is maturing this week - after using some of it to replace some whiteware, I have narrowed the options to either adding to my OCA holding or adding to my KiwiSaver.
Last edited by Bjauck; 27-09-2020 at 05:21 PM.
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28-09-2020, 10:30 AM
#6580
Originally Posted by winner69
Maybe the drunk monkey's have sobered up
If so 115 here we come
$1.10 is here, keep it coming
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