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26-07-2018, 03:45 PM
#1571
Punters think (and worry) too much
So true, winner. Especially on this thread!
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26-07-2018, 03:54 PM
#1572
Originally Posted by Beagle
WOW $1.10 trading cum a 2.6 cent divvy after that result and with that outlook. Opportunity knocks !
I think we will see what Macquarie announce tomorrow when they are allowed to sell. I don’t see it as a worry as this is a long term investment for me
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26-07-2018, 04:04 PM
#1573
Based on what I foresee I think they can approximately replicate this years 53% increase in underlying earnings growth next year.
That gives just over 13 cps for FY19. At theoretical ex divvy price of $1.074, (cum $1.10) that puts OCA on a forward PE of just 8.25 the cheapest they have ever traded on an earnings multiple basis, including the float price which at 79 cps was on a slightly higher multiple then.
If they maintain a 55% dividend payout ratio that suggests 7.2 cps in divvies next year and on $1.074 gives a gross yield of 6.7%.
What these numbers tell me is the market is pricing in massive level's of uncertainty regarding Macquarie's intentions. Once that matter is resolved this could pop in a similar manner to the way it did after the float.
Long term given the dynamics of this industry and the intrinsic strong tailwinds I think this is a truly outstanding long term investment opportunity at this level. It is trading on just one third of RYM's PE by way of comparative example and about half SUM's forward PE. The price doesn't make sense to me so I've done something more about it x 3 today.
Last edited by Beagle; 26-07-2018 at 04:26 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-07-2018, 04:08 PM
#1574
Member
I would like to own some OCA but I don't touch Private Equity and because they still control Oceania the books are suspect.
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26-07-2018, 04:13 PM
#1575
Originally Posted by freddagg
I would like to own some OCA but I don't touch Private Equity and because they still control Oceania the books are suspect.
As Joshuatree mentioned I was cynical early on but you've taken it to a new level calling into question the integrity of the independent directors the CEO and CFO who know these accounts will be audited. That's "next level" cynical in my opinion. I'm curious, If you're going to plumb those depth's of cynicism are you calling their increased build rate target's a load of "creative window dressing" too ?
Last edited by Beagle; 26-07-2018 at 04:20 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-07-2018, 04:20 PM
#1576
Originally Posted by bull....
It's a bit tiring when people are so gleeful
The price is going up everyday and they are rubbing it in
If I have a choice, than I'd prefer gleeful over the gloom and doom some concealed bears are dropping all over some threads ...
But hey, just my personal preference ;
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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26-07-2018, 04:23 PM
#1577
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
If I have a choice, than I'd prefer gleeful over the gloom and doom some concealed bears are dropping all over some threads ...
But hey, just my personal preference ;
I can assure you that you're not the only one !!...anyway back to OCA http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...ling-stakehtml
Last edited by Beagle; 26-07-2018 at 04:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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26-07-2018, 05:18 PM
#1578
Originally Posted by Beagle
There will be plenty of institutions looking at the figures hoping to buy those shares..... Maybe at a discount similar to when Infratil sold out of MetLife, maybe at a surplus.....
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26-07-2018, 05:29 PM
#1579
Shareprice up 2% on the day on pretty solid volumes
That’s pretty good
Tomorrow’s another day ....usually takes a day or two for the numbers to sink in so we’ll be ok
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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26-07-2018, 06:15 PM
#1580
Member
Originally Posted by Beagle
As Joshuatree mentioned I was cynical early on but you've taken it to a new level calling into question the integrity of the independent directors the CEO and CFO who know these accounts will be audited. That's "next level" cynical in my opinion. I'm curious, If you're going to plumb those depth's of cynicism are you calling their increased build rate target's a load of "creative window dressing" too ?
Hi Beagle,
I am not casting aspersions at anyone in particular.
There is a fair body of opinion on this thread that the current share price should be higher and the point I am trying to make is that there may be many with similar views to mine that will be happy to wait until private equity no longer controls the company.
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