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12-08-2022, 03:51 PM
#13351
Member
I think the closest OCA ever got to AVR was within .20c. We have been almost 7 months in a down trend. Craigs report average of all bear markets 15 months.
Shortest, 1 month, Feb 2020 - Mar 2020.
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12-08-2022, 04:00 PM
#13352
gezz just woke after me afternoon nap , all i can say is you too better get a room for the night , making up is so much fun
one step ahead of the herd
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12-08-2022, 04:38 PM
#13353
It has often been quoted OCA and all the other's follow or mirror the housing market but OCA was heading south well before any property downturn. In the past I have watched it start to gain momentum a couple of moths prior to results, if the market is forward thinking you would have to expect OCA to start a gradual move up between now and the results period.
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12-08-2022, 08:03 PM
#13354
Originally Posted by mike2020
It has often been quoted OCA and all the other's follow or mirror the housing market but OCA was heading south well before any property downturn. In the past I have watched it start to gain momentum a couple of moths prior to results, if the market is forward thinking you would have to expect OCA to start a gradual move up between now and the results period.
Maybe have another look. All the listed RV's turned over about the same time late August, early September 2021, pretty much exactly the same time the Housing Price Index turned over. This isn't a unique OCA thing.
Attachment 14057
Attachment 14058
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15-08-2022, 08:36 AM
#13355
Benjamin Graham saying often touted '.... in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine' brings comfort to many .... esp the frustrated patient ones
Apparently even Graham didn't hold stocks forever waiting for that day when the market finally recognises 'intrinsic value'
Many disciples of Graham have come to the conclusion that one should set a limit on their holding period in advance so they don't keep hanging in there because one day it'll come right (weigh correctly). They keep reminding themselves that "If a stock hasn't met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price."
Seems a sensible approach
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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15-08-2022, 08:44 AM
#13356
Originally Posted by winner69
Benjamin Graham saying often touted '.... in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine' brings comfort to many .... esp the frustrated patient ones
Apparently even Graham didn't hold stocks forever waiting for that day when the market finally recognises 'intrinsic value'
Many disciples of Graham have come to the conclusion that one should set a limit on their holding period in advance so they don't keep hanging in there because one day it'll come right (weigh correctly). They keep reminding themselves that "If a stock hasn't met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price."
Seems a sensible approach
It should cut both ways ...sometimes voting machine phenomena favours the holders ...so they should be selling then also ...like when FPH reached $ 37 and HGH $ 2.59 etc etc ...Did holders sell then ?? Then why only have limited holding patience when its against holders .
All stocks do get over valued and undervalued but your purpose of holding a stock is just not its value at any particular time but what its doing to your investing strategy and overall financial plan
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15-08-2022, 08:55 AM
#13357
Originally Posted by alokdhir
It should cut both ways ...sometimes voting machine phenomena favours the holders ...so they should be selling then also ...like when FPH reached $ 37 and HGH $ 2.59 etc etc ...Did holders sell then ?? Then why only have limited holding patience when its against holders .
All stocks do get over valued and undervalued but your purpose of holding a stock is just not its value at any particular time but what its doing to your investing strategy and overall financial plan
Alokdhir …when fph and Hgh reached those dizzy heights the market was in voting mode …like at a beauty contest some say
For a ‘value investor’ it was the time to sell those two stocks ….the value investing criteria (the Graham way) had been met …one had bought ‘value’ and that had been achieved so long a value stock at those prices
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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15-08-2022, 09:06 AM
#13358
Originally Posted by winner69
Alokdhir …when fph and Hgh reached those dizzy heights the market was in voting mode …like at a beauty contest some say
For a ‘value investor’ it was the time to sell those two stocks ….the value investing criteria (the Graham way) had been met …one had bought ‘value’ and that had been achieved so long a value stock at those prices
I know of many many very savvy investors like yourself who did not sell ...Mr B also didnt sell his HGH holding ...lol
But thats exactly the point I was making that we should sell also and hold also depending on our objectives . But we keep holding winners also and losers also
There is a great saying in market ...." Add to your winners and loose the losers ...." Mr Buffet keeps adding to Apple ...didnt sell any at the top so far
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15-08-2022, 10:09 AM
#13359
Member
Originally Posted by winner69
Benjamin Graham saying often touted '.... in the short run, the market is like a voting machine but in the long run, the market is a weighing machine' brings comfort to many .... esp the frustrated patient ones
Apparently even Graham didn't hold stocks forever waiting for that day when the market finally recognises 'intrinsic value'
Many disciples of Graham have come to the conclusion that one should set a limit on their holding period in advance so they don't keep hanging in there because one day it'll come right (weigh correctly). They keep reminding themselves that "If a stock hasn't met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price."
Seems a sensible approach
Did exactly that, if only I hadn’t on so many shares would have been on easy street now.
Life however brings up many and various financial needs causing you to cash in. Always easy in hind sight.
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15-08-2022, 11:06 AM
#13360
Originally Posted by Curly
Did exactly that, if only I hadn’t on so many shares would have been on easy street now.
Life however brings up many and various financial needs causing you to cash in. Always easy in hind sight.
Yes, its easy to point at recent high and say you should have sold. The number of times I sold down "over-priced" FPH shares, I could kick myself in retrospect. Have never regretted selling a crappy company though. For me, I focus more on what I think about the company. Own good companies and stay away from bad companies and don't worry about the share price so much. OCA seems like an ok company with good growth prospects. I'll sell when I think that is no longer the case.
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