OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[ValueNZ]

Ironic that the much pined for update has taken any recent gloss off the share price.

Hard to see the actual result, when announced next month, can now do much to fire this up. At least another six months before we see the light in my view. But on-market volume is always there so folk on both sides of the fence.

All good by me. Another 6 months of accumulation in the low 60c range would be great. Even better if it's in the 50c range.

Good things take time. Less new sales now just means more sales in the future, I have no doubt that OCA will eventually sell down this ocean of unsold stock. The market overreacting to this is something to take advantage of.

[Snow Leopard]

The DMF is the 30% charged on buyback, not operational.

Day to day operating costs I refer to is running the actual village, I.e day to day costs less fees paid by the occupier.

This is one of the weird beliefs that I mentioned a while ago.

I refer you to the 2023 FY accounts [link] page 46, Note 2.2 and particularly the third paragraph (top of right hand column) of the Deferred Management Fees part.

[Daytr]

This is one of the weird beliefs that I mentioned a while ago.

I refer you to the 2023 FY accounts [link] page 46, Note 2.2 and particularly the third paragraph (top of right hand column) of the Deferred Management Fees part.

I read what you referred to and it doesn't change anything imo.
In 2023 OCA earned $39M in DMF and $9M in village service fees.

The average tenure of a unit is 7 years.
1800 units ÷ by 7 years is 257 per year.
$39M ÷ 257 is $152k .
I.e net of refurbishment costs they retain $152k of the 30% of DMF.

The $9M effectively equates to each unit paying $100/week for services.

Thoughts?

[winner69]

Looking at DMF for F23

In revenues there is $70.2m of DFM (accrued). Add care fees, village fees and other stuff total revenue was $247m (including DMF)

Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m.

This implies that day to day operations ran at a small loss

Which also implies that all DMF was consumed ……all gone to help pay for looking after and caring for people and contributing to HQ overheads. Nothing left over. It was a fee after all (paid advance);and not really an ‘asset’.

That’s how I see it anyway…in simple abbreviated way

This is how i still see things

[Daytr]

This is how i still see things

Yep makes sense.
And if margins on new sales are also being squeezed that will dent the overall profit.

[Habits]

"Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m."

Without the sales and resales there would have been nothing left. The 2022/23 FY was a tough time for housing and property in general

[Baa_Baa]

"Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m."

Without the sales and resales there would have been nothing left. The 2022/23 FY was a tough time for housing and property in general

Finally, the realisation is dawning that it's all about sales sales sales, and yes, H2 is a big disappointment, but overall +20% is encouraging. And I don't care about the excuses, there are RV's that are proving that the 'market' is there for RV sales, it's just that OCA aren't getting their share of it lately. And they need it, with such a large backlog of saleable property and a development pipeline that will just add to the backlog.

Something has to change, not just the CEO. The Board has a few very large investor shareholders, surely they must be wondering when the strategy will turn into ROI on their investment? None of the RV's pay even barely respectable ROI (dividends), let alone capital growth. All of them need to realise the market has changed and growth at all costs to investors, is not sustainable anymore. It's time for payback. And it's easy, relatively, to make that happen. The levers to produce investor/owner/shareholder returns are very simple to implement, albeit they take some time to take effect.

What this company doesn't seem to get, and maybe the whole sector doesn't get yet, is who they're working for. It's it's the owners that they work for, the shareholders, and it's not at all unreasonable IMO to expect a decent ROI, EPS, which none of them provide, none of them.

[Daytr]

Finally, the realisation is dawning that it's all about sales sales sales, and yes, H2 is a big disappointment, but overall +20% is encouraging. And I don't care about the excuses, there are RV's that are proving that the 'market' is there for RV sales, it's just that OCA aren't getting their share of it lately. And they need it, with such a large backlog of saleable property and a development pipeline that will just add to the backlog.

Something has to change, not just the CEO. The Board has a few very large investor shareholders, surely they must be wondering when the strategy will turn into ROI on their investment? None of the RV's pay even barely respectable ROI (dividends), let alone capital growth. All of them need to realise the market has changed and growth at all costs to investors, is not sustainable anymore. It's time for payback. And it's easy, relatively, to make that happen. The levers to produce investor/owner/shareholder returns are very simple to implement, albeit they take some time to take effect.

What this company doesn't seem to get, and maybe the whole sector doesn't get yet, is who they're working for. It's it's the owners that they work for, the shareholders, and it's not at all unreasonable IMO to expect a decent ROI, EPS, which none of them provide, none of them.

Well there are discounted sales & sales.
With the amount of time & capital used for each build, you want to ensure you are getting a reasonable return, especially seeing they probably are losing money operationally, something that cannot continue, despite what SailorBoy used espouse.

If OCA'S sales compared to competitors are down but margins higher I wouldn't have such a problem, as they still have the units to sell.
If they have reduced margins the same or more than others, then I have a problem.

[winner69]

UPDATE FROM WARRIORS (Price Sensitive)

The Warriors are pleased to report that after seven games into the season they have had 4 wins and a draw which is about on par with 5 wins at same time last season

The Warriors are also pleased with the increased excitement from fans since they embraced the UP THE WAHS chant

The Warriors continue to build the strength of the team and will continue to do so through 2025

The Warriors welcomed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to the team at beginning of the season. Coach Andrew Webster said ‘We are delighted to welcome Roger back to the team. He bring a wealth of experience and dynamism to the team leadership’

The Warriors will provide another update late May

[Snoopy]

UPDATE FROM WARRIORS (Price Sensitive)

The Warriors are pleased to report that after seven games into the season they have had 4 wins and a draw which is about on par with 5 wins at same time last season

The Warriors are also pleased with the increased excitement from fans since they embraced the UP THE WAHS chant

The Warriors continue to build the strength of the team and will continue to do so through 2025

The Warriors welcomed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to the team at beginning of the season. Coach Andrew Webster said ‘We are delighted to welcome Roger back to the team. He bring a wealth of experience and dynamism to the team leadership’

The Warriors will provide another update late May

Where can I buy shares in these up and coming Warriors? I looked up under the WAH ticker on the NZX and couldn't find it? Someone said to me, no it isn't under that ticker - you have to look under OCA. I wasn't sure what that acronym might stand for: 'Other Capable Athletes'? As an ESG investor I may have had access to them filtered out by my access bot. I don't think Sam Stubbs from Simplicity would tolerate an investment in the Warriors, as they black list stuff connected to the military.

Did a bit of a news search and found that OCA has a head coach called 'Brent'. Is Brent a particularly violent man?

SNOOPY