OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Panda-NZ-]

Costs outstripping house price growth (alongside regulation) is a risk across the sector and OCA is particularly exposed to both.

[Curly]

Costs outstripping house price growth (alongside regulation) is a risk across the sector and OCA is particularly exposed to both.

Yes, I guess market is spooked as currently debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Against that earnings are anticipated to grow approximately 22% pa. Time will tell. Might get some movement in sp approaching May results.
That’s not far away. If I had spare cash I would be topping up.

[ronaldson]

[QUOTE=ronaldson;1041950]I thought the MET half year reporting to 31 December was quite a positive update in the current economic climate.

Since then the main facility at Orion Point in Hobsonville, Auckland, has opened and I intend to schedule a visit in the near future. I made an early stage visit some months ago and it is a lovely location and quality offering, albeit pricey.



Apologies for being off topic with MET but I did visit Orion Point again, and it is headlined in a NZ Herald property liftout today as " Retire to Luxury" with another Open Day on Saturday. Two bedroom villas are from $1.455m and one bedroom apartments ( there are also two and three bedroom ) start at $0.625m. The village is complete including the just opened main amenity building, and the attractive pavilion, except that there is room for more Apartment buildings (14 in each) on the site perimeter where construction is yet to commence.

It is quality, and in a suitable location in Hobsonville, but my overarching impression was that sales to date seem to be underwhelming. The very best of the villas adjacent to the coastal walkway are occupied but the rest seem to be vacant despite completion a while ago, and very little indication at all that many apartments are sold. Clearly thou MET see a future in being upmarket at the premium end here.

Unlike RYM MetLifeCare have a 30% DMF and I expect sales are a struggle in the current environment despite the offering.

[ValueNZ]

You're young.. how has investing in OCA been for you so far.

Better than I could have asked for. Market has gifted me shares at a very steep discount to intrinsic value.

IF residential property had an ETF would you instead put money in that?

I would not, at least not without some major discount.

[ValueNZ]

My average has gone from $1.05 to $0.75. I'm not sure if I should continue to average down any further ?
I guess I'll be happy to recover my costs, plus a small profit should there be an offer of a takeover. (Like my previous gain with MET in 2020)

Good stuff. Average down further, or don't, I can't answer that for you.

A takeover would suck... But I'd still do well out of it. Just likely not as well as holding the shares.

[Maverick]

[QUOTE=ronaldson;1043042]

I thought the MET half year reporting to 31 December was quite a positive update in the current economic climate.

Since then the main facility at Orion Point in Hobsonville, Auckland, has opened and I intend to schedule a visit in the near future. I made an early stage visit some months ago and it is a lovely location and quality offering, albeit pricey.



Apologies for being off topic with MET but I did visit Orion Point again, and it is headlined in a NZ Herald property liftout today as " Retire to Luxury" with another Open Day on Saturday. Two bedroom villas are from $1.455m and one bedroom apartments ( there are also two and three bedroom ) start at $0.625m. The village is complete including the just opened main amenity building, and the attractive pavilion, except that there is room for more Apartment buildings (14 in each) on the site perimeter where construction is yet to commence.

It is quality, and in a suitable location in Hobsonville, but my overarching impression was that sales to date seem to be underwhelming. The very best of the villas adjacent to the coastal walkway are occupied but the rest seem to be vacant despite completion a while ago, and very little indication at all that many apartments are sold. Clearly thou MET see a future in being upmarket at the premium end here.

Unlike RYM MetLifeCare have a 30% DMF and I expect sales are a struggle in the current environment despite the offering.

Thanks for taking the time to visit and sharing that Ronaldson.
That area is spoilt for choice with new RV offerings. SUM and OCA just around the corner.
I visited that site a few months ago and had a good yak to the foreman guy. He was frothy about how well things were going ( Resident wise) The villas were going well and plenty of vibe going on.

They we’re still working on the apartments (scaffolding etc still up) . So I suspect it’s just the apartments that would appear empty which would be as expected but the villas should be well occupied. Is this what you observed Ron?

OCa expect to sell a couple of apartments or care suites per site each month and MET will be no different.

It is a super classy villlage.

Another thing . You quite liked the MET result last week. Totally agree with you.
There we’re several key highlights in there ;
-ORA sales up 12%.
-Care revenue up a heap (the Dhb increase last year.)
-A comment from CBRE buried in the fine print that Rv sales are doing much better than the lacklustre NZ residential sales numbers.

These are the essential drivers for OCAs profit jump this year. I still can’t see any reason to downgrade my high expectations of this year.

[850man]

A massive number changed hands on close yesterday and this morning there are 5.5M shares in the buy queue within 5c of the closing price and only 116K shares within 5c of close price on the sell side. Whether all those are still there at 10:00am is still to be determined but it does suggest there is a good amount of buy interest in OCA

[winner69]

A massive number changed hands on close yesterday and this morning there are 5.5M shares in the buy queue within 5c of the closing price and only 116K shares within 5c of close price on the sell side. Whether all those are still there at 10:00am is still to be determined but it does suggest there is a good amount of buy interest in OCA

Bottomfeeder said watch out for corporate activity ….takeover?

[mistaTea]

Deprival-superreaction tendency [loss aversion] is also a huge contributor to ruin from the compulsion to gamble. First, it causes the gambler to have a passion to get even once he has suffered a loss, and the passion grows with the loss.
—Charlie Munger

[ValueNZ]

At this time, if anyone wants to buy shares on market open they have to pay 64c.

Too early to tell but you might have been right Mav!