sharetrader
Page 767 of 1942 FirstFirst ... 26766771775776376476576676776876977077177781786712671767 ... LastLast
Results 7,661 to 7,670 of 19415
  1. #7661
    Guru justakiwi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    Canterbury
    Posts
    2,569

    Default

    Sometimes these discussions puzzle me. One minute everyone is happy as a clam with their OCA investment, then the next they are questioning a drop in SP. We all know share prices go up ... and down. Probably the number one thing I’ve learned here is ... “don’t buy/sell based on SP. If you still believe in the company and you still believe they have potential, as you did the day you bought your first shares - stay invested and ignore minor ups and downs in SP.”

    I bought some more the other day when they were sitting at $1.44. Paid $1.46 for them. Closed at $1.42. I did the usual “wtf???” mini rant for about 60 seconds. Then came to my senses, remembered what I’ve learned over the past 18 months, and put it behind me. Fluctuations in SP says bugger all about a company. The market determines the price and the market isn’t always right on any given day.

    JMHO for what little it’s worth.

  2. #7662
    Veteran novice
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    7,289

    Default

    Thanks for that sensible post, jk. I was starting to despair about all the nonsense being written on this thread!


  3. #7663
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2020
    Posts
    72

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by justakiwi View Post
    Sometimes these discussions puzzle me. One minute everyone is happy as a clam with their OCA investment, then the next they are questioning a drop in SP.
    David Hume recognised that human beings reason on the basis of emotion and then engage in post-hoc cognitive reasoning that supports the initial, emotional response. This process happens so quickly and to an extent, subconsciously, that people can't see themselves doing it.

    I see a lot of this on this site. People react emotionally to fluctuations in SPs and then come up with rationalisations that support their feelings. It is always important to keep Hume in mind, and when possible, guard yourself against reasoning in this way.

  4. #7664
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    landskrona sweden
    Posts
    4,308

    Default

    Yes whatch out for those science graduates speaking in monotone voices showing no emotions in life.

    Every time a profit and loss comes out and that profit figure increases losing control and getting emotion and hitting the buy button and yelling out the garden as if lotto has just been won is almost built in response like flight or fright.

    Now where is that OCA market update.... soon people soon.... and please dont feel you have constrain your emotions if you have a big stack and the news is good....

  5. #7665
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    5,292

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Joh13 View Post
    Is this not a forum for people to share their opinions along with how and why they came to their conclusion?
    Certainly is, I thought your post was well reasoned and a nice balance of FA, TA and opinion. Well done, keen to hear more from you in due course.

  6. #7666
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    I’m sticking with my $35m underlying earnings forecast for H1

    Higher than gurus Mav and B and heaps more than what guru professional analysts are implying.

    It will be exciting if they report $35m ...like punters will say WOW WOW and BUY BUY .....and share price will be $1.70 in a blink of an eye.

    On the other hand if it comes in $25m/$30m no worries .....Oceania a long term story and covid just delayed that famous inflection point

    So next Friday it’s still oysters and chips for lunch down on the beach.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #7667
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    landskrona sweden
    Posts
    4,308

    Default

    "It will be exciting if they report $35m ...like punters will say WOW WOW and BUY BUY .....and share price will be $1.70 in a blink of an eye."

    ... NO , really? gosh well that would be wonderful..... but the pros will say "DONT GET EMOTIONAL"


    however please feel free to dance an irish jig, run outside and do a Haka... what ever brings you emotional peace of mind.

    Volumn 5 is out but for occasions like these just dont bother reading it.

  8. #7668
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,737

    Default

    The earnings growth target for exec’s LTI remains a secret and not to be disclosed to shareholders (maybe mid year they tell me)

    Probably embarrassed to disclose it’s something like 6% pa when gurus are talking 20% pa plus.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #7669
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    UBS - Excellent research. Obvious to me they invested substantial time and resources and engaged at significant length with senior OCA management in compiling that 45 page report that came out in December.
    Underlying NPAT as forecasted by them - FY20 Actual $43m, FY21 $48m, FY22 $64m, FY23 $76m, FY24 $93m, FY25 $110m, FY26 $126m.

    Average daily turnover as reported by them suggests the entire stock of the company is churned every two years.
    The real money with this one will be made by those who share the long term vision of the company's management and directors.

    I am comfortable with their forecast and note for the ten months to 31 March 2021 that equates to approx 9.25 cps annualized from 7 cps last year, growing to FY22 10.3 cps, FY23 12.2 cps, FY24 14.9 cps, FY25 17.7 cps and 20.22 cps in FY26, (will be a little less with shares issued in lieu of dividend in the years ahead)

    Regarding this year, if they make $48m underlying for the ten months, that's $4.8m per month so on a straight arithmetic basis that suggests 6 x 4.8m = $28.8m for the result later this week but I am aware that the August shutdown in Auckland cost them momentum with resale refurbishment and I think there has been some PPE costs in the half year to 30 November that are over and above the ordinary.

    My initial thinking was $25-30m for the half to be announced but on further consideration over the holidays I am more comfortable right at the bottom of that range. My view is significantly different to Mav's which goes to show that whilst we sometimes confer and very much enjoy doing so, we often see things quite differently. That said I will be exceptionally pleased if the underlying profit is in the ballpark he suggested and anything over $30m would have me anxiously wanting more shares as quickly as possible so I really hope my good friend is right !

    I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.

    As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-01-2021 at 04:42 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #7670
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2019
    Posts
    597

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    UBS - Excellent research. Obvious to me they invested substantial time and resources and engaged at significant length with senior OCA management in compiling that 45 page report that came out in December.
    Underlying NPAT as forecasted by them - FY20 Actual $43m, FY21 $48m, FY22 $64m, FY23 $76m, FY24 $93m, FY25 $110m, FY26 $126m.

    Average daily turnover as reported by them suggests the entire stock of the company is churned every two years.
    The real money with this one will be made by those who share the long term vision of the company's management and directors.

    I am comfortable with their forecast and note for the ten months to 31 March 2021 that equates to approx 9.25 cps annualized from 7 cps last year, growing to FY22 10.3 cps, FY23 12.2 cps, FY24 14.9 cps, FY25 17.7 cps and 20.22 cps in FY26, (will be a little less with shares issued in lieu of dividend in the years ahead)

    Regarding this year, if they make $48m underlying for the ten months, that's $4.8m per month so on a straight arithmetic basis that suggests 6 x 4.8m = $28.8m for the result later this week but I am aware that the August shutdown in Auckland cost them momentum with resale refurbishment and I think there has been some PPE costs in the half year to 30 November that are over and above the ordinary.

    My initial thinking was $25-30m for the half to be announced but on further consideration over the holidays I am more comfortable right at the bottom of that range. My view is significantly different to Mav's which goes to show that whilst we sometimes confer and very much enjoy doing so, we often see things quite differently. That said I will be exceptionally pleased if the underlying profit is in the ballpark he suggested and anything over $30m would have me anxiously wanting more shares as quickly as possible so I really hope my good friend is right !

    I am comfortable one year hence from here at 18 times forward earnings = 18 x 10.3 cps = $1.85 updated target price early 2022. Over time as they prove their growth rate I expect that multiple will expand to about 20 times as they prove over a number of years they can grow eps at a CAGR of something like 15%. We could see eps of 20 cps in FY26 and the market pricing the company on a forward basis in late 2025 at 20 times that number = ~ $4.

    As I said earlier, the real money will be made by those with the patience to hold this for at least 5 years which is what I intend to do.
    Welcome back Beagle.
    I missed you

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •