OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Rawz]

The table gives you some indication

Gap based on stronger financial performance (increase net assets). Both have been slightly re-rated upwards over the years with SUM P/B now 2.2 v OCA 1.3

Looks like 2021 is the year the OCA ship starts to turn around? OCA NTA as a % of SUM nta starts to increase in 2021, previous 4 years it decreased.

Maybe this inflection point talk is true? If FY22 NTA grows quicker again then maybe OCA will be on its journey to 2x nta valuation like SUM

[Dlownz]

OCA is ready for its next run. I'm expecting a 20% slow gain before a small retracment of 5 to 10%. Signs everywhere this company is past the point now. Just outside forces slowing down the move.

[Poet]

Interesting article in NBR

https://nbr.us18.list-manage.com/tra...c&e=ed8d49c762

Paywalled but one paragraph in particular struck me

This is Andrew Barclay Head of Goldman Sach - advisers to EQT talking

“A lot of people would have looked at [Metlifecare] and said, ‘Oh, well, that was obvious to anyone’, but actually putting strategies together for how you buy the first thing, and what's the second thing you buy, and the third thing, it all takes a lot of time and a lot of thought.”

[Beagle]

$2.50 and they can have all mine...but Maverick may hold out for $3.

[Waltzing]

Where is it going to be in 10 years with the much talked about shortage in retirement facilities?

[Beagle]

Where is it going to be in 10 years with the much talked about shortage in retirement facilities?

$6. If they grow earnings at 15% per annum every 5 years the share price should double.

[justakiwi]

That would make me very ​happy

$6. If they grow earnings at 15% per annum every 5 years the share price should double.

[BlackPeter]

$6. If they grow earnings at 15% per annum every 5 years the share price should double.

That would make me very ​happy

Obviously - we don't know how much $6 will buy in 10 years, they say stagflation has arrived.

Anyway - probably nevertheless one of the better investment options (discl: holding lots).

[Waltzing]

Mr B "6"

well., diversify and hold for the long term then.

Recently we sold AUS tourism only to have to buy back in 2 weeks ago as AUS market ignored delta...

And there is the lesson..The market is going to look through the virus as new modified vaccines and treatments arrive over the next 5 years.

NZ failed to do an expensive Dubrovnik and now it plan your own defense.

These retirement villages are sitting ducks until vaccines kill off transmission which they currently dont do 100 percent.

[bottomfeeder]

Mr B "6"

well., diversify and hold for the long term then.

Recently we sold AUS tourism only to have to buy back in 2 weeks ago as AUS market ignored delta...

And there is the lesson..The market is going to look through the virus as new modified vaccines and treatments arrive over the next 5 years.

NZ failed to do an expensive Dubrovnik and now it plan your own defense.

These retirement villages are sitting ducks until vaccines kill off transmission which they currently dont do 100 percent.

Somebody is selling, but from experience, I know that alternatives to retirement villages and in particular, high care units, are few and far between. Kids lead too busy lives, and the houses they own are far too inadequate to house an elderly dependent relative. And even if they could, the care required for an aging increasingly health concerned relatives is far too onerous to consider. We may get some fluctuations in the SP, in the short term, but when it does go up it will be fast. Let us not forget they have locked in a relatively low interest loan, for a considerable period, to enable them to operate in a higher interest rate environment. Not sure how low they will go, but has to be a good long term holding.