OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Joh13]

A lot of selling pressure. I am expecting a disclosure notice very soon for Earl and or Mark, also surprised that OCA hasn't made an announcement about any acquisitions, considering they raised money through the bond issue quite quickly... Covid delay?

TA wise, I see that OCA is around 3.0 Standard deviations from the 150 day linear regression line and is also showing bullish regular divergence on the daily chart (CCI) and hitting the linear regression line for the weekly chart. I topped up a little more ($1.41), I see this as an overdone sell-off. Other operators haven't seen their SP move, so can only put it down too aggressive selling by the guys mentioned above, fundamentals haven't changed as far as we have been made aware.

Quarterly updates would be nice. As you mentioned in a post a while back Beagle, expect this year to be slow and painful with the SP and that it has been.

[Waltzing]

Been very wary of this stock from the first sets of published accounts and the chart just doesnt look right.

if the P&L required numerous break outs that require study and then questions back to the company accountants if starts to set off little bells.

And every set published after that changes it format, well.

If they are transparent great but they dont look it. Looks a mess.

[DonkeyKong]

Now they changed to 31st March ending ...so 6 monthly results to 30th Sept should be in Oct / Nov ....I reckon ...but could not find the exact date on NZX site

It will be by the 30th of November but nothing more specific than that has been announced as far as I know. See “Key Dates” in https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-centre

[Maverick]

I must say how rational and together everyone has been during this fall. ALL excellent posts and opinions guys.

Yes, it's all a bit of a mystery why the SP is currently so low. It's in the same market as the others, particularly ARV which it usually is lumped with, are doing just dandy. I'm going over my workings and can't see why OCA might turn in a poor report.

Its Care profit is very predictable and while not overly profitable in isolation, it is a stable income.
I've got the care profit at $13.5m (up 28% from PCP).

Village profit is the tricky one this period as they are predominantly selling down Nelson and Christchurch apartments. These are not that lucrative as far as new sales margin goes (when compared to Auckland) but will come into their own downstream as resales much later. This has been well signaled by OCA.
They did get Eden-Auckland delivered early this HY but Auckland's lockdown and winter will be dragging on that delivery`s new sales progress. This however will have time to shine in HY2. So these sales will be the big variable in this HY1.
Village profit will most likely be flat ( but higher prices and Eden sales just may surprise to the upside ) Whatever the lockdown effect is on HY1 we can assume will just transfer into HY2 so overall this the full year should still be up at least 20% YOY at $60m.( analysts are saying around about the same thing too)I have had to make no changes to my workings for this FY.
I also maintain mid next year at a PE20 expectations of the SP is still $1.90

So while I am still unwavering on the fundamental value of OCA I do find the current market trading activity surprising but also fascinating.
For several weeks now the average “buy” order sizes are tiny, around 1,500-3,000 per parcel ( most unusual - is it just Sharesies orders making it to market?) While the average “sells” lined up are the usual amounts on average around at least 15,000 .
This tells me a big seller/s have got off market “sell” orders sitting on the desks at the broking houses that are being satisfied “off market” by any semi decent sell order that comes in and gets hoovered up at a broker's desk before going to market - thus avoiding NZX fees. Notice the big regular daily off market trades happening. This has the effect of frustrated sellers having to accept whatever they can get on market from the tiny “buy” nibbles on the NZX platform. Even a few sell orders quickly overwhelms any small buyers causing constant downward pressure.

We have seen this behavior a few times before but usually only last about a week. This time its 2 weeks and counting so it must be a big order. Logically at some point this big order will complete and normal “buys”' will make it to market again and then all functioning efficiently once again. IMO the share price will rise rapidly at this time.

But despite my pointless little theory, it is still essentially a big seller/s however the process is being executed.

We can see from all the many clues amongst its peers that industry wide things are going gangbusters. All NZ results on any measure are stronger than ever.

I have studied to great depth all aspects of this company and when broken down to small parts it's very logical and predictable. Other than one of its new acquisitions sitting on a pile of asbestos I personally don't fear OCA has some dark secret and someone else knows something that we don't. (Greg T doesn't seem worried either).

Whatever happens over the next month ,on late November results day, I'm expecting to see it in the early $1.60s

[Waltzing]

sorting this stock out is almost a full time job and from MR M posts it must be his near full time occupation.

Almost need a development magazine of their own as these retirement villages become bigger and bigger.

[Maverick]

sorting this stock out is almost a full time job and from MR M posts it must be his near full time occupation.

Waltz, you hit the nail on the head, it is. Its taken me 3 years to get it dailed in.

it's only fair to share some of that hard work as my contribution in exchange for the many excellent posters on Sharetrader offering their own expertise and opinions.

[Beau]

Thanks Maverick for putting in the time again. As you put it certainly is a mystery having purchased Oceania and Arvida shares at the same time some time ago and both working on similar models just can’t see why there is such a vast difference in gain in share price. Have noted there has been big orders off market and someone constantly feeding for sale side and lots of buyers on small amounts. Having purchased a couple of top ups myself I’m amazed that purchases aren’t in droves, there isn’t much else on market at present at a reasonable price. If Greg T doesn’t seem worried that’s peace of mind that man knows his stuff only have to look at his background. Thanks again Maverick.

[winner69]

Doggy's keen for lots more right on NTA. The fact is there are VERY few real value opportunities on the NZX so we NEED something to really get our teeth into !

My mate Richard says ‘value is a scarcity. That’s not surprising in a bubble environment, and history shows scarcities tend to outperform. ‘

[Bjauck]

....
For several weeks now the average “buy” order sizes are tiny, around 1,500-3,000 per parcel ( most unusual - is it just Sharesies orders making it to market?) While the average “sells” lined up are the usual amounts on average around at least 15,000 ....

It is good to read your post for a bit of perspective.

From the recent dividend payment from another company, I topped up yesterday with a purchase of 2,100 shares via Direct broking (satisfied by 3 transactions!). While not a large purchase I didn't think it was tiny...

However it is all relative

[justakiwi]

It's not tiny. Tiny is the three $20 orders I've place this week

It is good to read your post for a bit of perspective.

From the recent dividend payment from another company, I topped up yesterday with a purchase of 2,100 shares via Direct broking. While not a large purchase I didn't think it was tiny...

However it is all relative