OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

Hey Ferg ….those numbers. Sort of get what you showing

They demolished / written off quite a few units in the past few years as they go down the care conversion path ….maybe that’s the missing number

[allfromacell]

Inflation print at 2.2% for the quarterly. Multiple by 4 quarters and were running at 8.8%.

The 10 year is spiking as it should, interest rates can only go up from here.

[Biscuit]

Hey Ferg ….those numbers. Sort of get what you showing

They demolished / written off quite a few units in the past few years as they go down the care conversion path ….maybe that’s the missing number

But Ferg gets lower numbers than OCA provide so demolished units isn't the answer.

[Ferg]

That's correct Biscuit - I am coming up with lower capacity figures versus what was reported in the AR. I'm also unsure about the other number I tagged red being the vacant new builds. I have zero sense if that is correct or if it is out by miles. I don't think I am comparing apples with oranges.....or maybe reported capacity is weighted for being available for only part of the year....?

[Beagle]

Sorry mate, looking back would hurt my head too much. I am happy to accept the numbers at face value.

Interesting inflation data out today with inflation up a whopping 2.2% in just the last quarter (8.8% per annum) and the cost of building a house up a whopping 4.5% this quarter (annual rate of 18% !).

What does all this mean for OCA with its flash recently built villages at Meadowbank and the Sands and the one in Nelson ? It means the cost to build these as new buildings that are already built has gone up quite dramatically and this must flow through to resale prices.

Please Brent, be far more confident in pricing the units with the wonderful facilities you are offering residents and price them more appropriately for the safe and secure lifestyle we are providing residents. A 4.5% across the board price increase now to reflect the revised cost to provide these facilities is about 6 cents per share in asset backing. Lets do this !

[winner69]

Sorry mate, looking back would hurt my head too much. I am happy to accept the numbers at face value.

Interesting inflation data out today with inflation up a whopping 2.2% in just the last quarter (8.8% per annum) and the cost of building a house up a whopping 4.5% this quarter (annual rate of 18% !).

What does all this mean for OCA with its flash recently built villages at Meadowbank and the Sands and the one in Nelson ? It means the cost to build these as new buildings that are already built has gone up quite dramatically and this must flow through to resale prices.

Please Brent, be far more confident in pricing the units with the wonderful facilities you are offering residents and price them more appropriately for the safe and secure lifestyle we are providing residents. A 4.5% across the board price increase now to reflect the revised cost to provide these facilities is about 6 cents per share in asset backing. Lets do this !

Must being the operative word here eh

But don’t worry ..even if sold cheap now you make it up at a later date I’m told

[Beagle]

Must being the operative word here eh

But don’t worry ..even if sold cheap now you make it up at a later date I’m told

Beagles are very impatient animals when it comes to getting their next feed lol (Seriously my patience with this one which has gone backwards this year is wearing pretty thin).

Brent must increase unit prices very sharply right now lol

[Muse]

Beagles are very impatient animals when it comes to getting their next feed lol (Seriously my patience with this one which has gone backwards this year is wearing pretty thin).

Brent must increase unit prices very sharply right now lol

I agree. Jack ‘em up, jack ‘em up!!!

[bull....]

Maybe someone can help me out here because I can't quite get the sales & capacity volumes to work from the annual reports.

In particular, if I compare new builds versus new sales it appears there were an accumulated 180 new units and care suites unsold at the end of the last fiscal year. That feels too high in light of demand in the sector.

Also I see OCA have restated the prior year occupancy % a couple of time - has anyone else noticed that or seen any comments on why?

Lastly, if I take last years capacity and add the new builds, I consistently get lower numbers than OCA provides in terms of total capacity for units and care suites. Have I done something wrong?

Note: items starred with * have come from the annual report. Each row is tagged with a unique identifier starting with A. Calculated rows show the calculation used by referencing the other rows, except items from the annual report which have the *.

CAPACITY & UNIT SALES ANALYSIS				FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21
		*per A/R
Sales of New Units		A*			37	73	76	75	87
Sales of New Care Suites		B*			15	27	57	114	107
Total New Sales		C=A+B			52	100	133	189	194
New Builds (Units & Suites)		D*			44	131	272	176	217
Unsold (New Builds - Total New Sales)		E=D-C			0**	31	139	-13	23
Cumulative Unsold		F=Sum(E)			0	31	170	157	180	??
Capacity	Units	G*		1,022	1,054	1,102	1,202	1,285	1,367
	Care Suites	H*		230	242	340	542	679	847
	Care Beds	I*		2,519	2,580	2,540	2,112	1,882	1,807
Total Capacity		J=G+H+I		3,771	3,876	3,982	3,856	3,846	4,021
Average Occupancy % (Restated)		K*			91.3%	90.4%	91.0%	91.5%	92.4%
Average Occupancy #		L=J*K			3,539	3,600	3,509	3,519	3,715
Unoccupied - All		M=J-L			337	382	347	327	306
Less Cumulative Unsold Units & Suites		N=F			0	31	170	157	180
Unoccupied Care Beds & Resales		O=M-N			337	351	177	170	126
Units & Suites Capacity - prior year		P=G+H (PY)			1,252	1,296	1,442	1,744	1,964
New Builds		Q=D			44	131	272	176	217
Calculated Capacity		R=P+Q			1,296	1,427	1,714	1,920	2,181
Reported Capacity - this year		S=G+H (TY)			1,296	1,442	1,744	1,964	2,214
Difference		T=S-R			0	15	30	44	33	??

**Note: I forced FY17 to zero for unsold given new sales exceeded new builds and we can't start with unsold < 0.

hazard a guess you might want to find out how they recognize revenue and completion of projects in there accounts

[Ggcc]

Beagles are very impatient animals when it comes to getting their next feed lol (Seriously my patience with this one which has gone backwards this year is wearing pretty thin).

Brent must increase unit prices very sharply right now lol

I agree as the worst has not arrived yet