OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Maverick]

Hey Mav, I've run with your superior knowledge and run with your estimates of Underlying Earnings estimates and plugged them into my EPS chart (Used weighted average number of shares as well)

Paints a rather sad picture -- EPS declines in H1 and for the full year is a miserable 4% higher than 12 months to March 21 ....and still tracking at 2018/2019 levels ....all that new capital not doing much is it.

Chart looks a bit like the share price chart --- and at the end of the day financial performance is actually why the share price is perceived to be so low / Cheap

Hey Winner, love your charts but this one needs a few tweaks.
This years underlying profit I've estimated at $60m completely ignores both the shares issued for the recent acquisitions and income derived from those acquisitions. While OCA tell us it will be cash accreditive , which will result in a boost , I choose to ignore it until I see it actually transpire . (That's the cynicism I roll with Ferg, re my earlier post).

So if you divide the forecast 60m (ignoring any extra profit generated from the recent acquisitions) by 626m shares ( pre capital raise amount of new shares) then EPS is 9.6c

Plus your historical underlying EPS are off. Try these:
FY18...8.52cps
FY 19...8.03 cps
FY20...7.03cps (covid)
FY21...8.15cps
Forecast FY22...9.6cps

So definitely not brilliant on that measure for sure but as I've said before , its the numbers within the numbers that matter for now.
Care profits are tracking nicely up now permanently and will continue its accent at about this pace, c.10-15%p/a.
Village profits will be down temporarily this year until more Auckland apartments get delivered in the next few years and just generally more apartments delivered start selling now that land has been freed up by care suit completion. As I've said plenty before, the real money is in the apartments which don`t really get cracking for a year or two yet.

So really there is no busting hurry reason to buy OCA right now, but as Baabaa said a long time ago , this share price does tend to creep away.
When you can pick it up at near asset backing then it really is hard to see it ever being better value than now.

[Waltzing]

MR M's model, its more of a longer term hold, plenty of time to buy in if the numbers start to line up.

Share price may continue to come under pressure giving Bull another trade.

O Neil used to say the longer the flat line on the chart the steeper the move up when better numbers are printed in the results.

[Maverick]

Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?

Edit...
Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".

So, he obviously thinks its a good time to buy to be bothered applying for stuff like that from "the powers that be" rather than just waiting until after the result.

[forest]

Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?

Do we know when HY1 results come out Mav? If it is late November Greg T is outside blackout period I would have thought.

[peat]

Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".

I was going to say Mav that its always a good thing - more skin in the game.
but now you've seen the explanation Does that beg the obvious question. why was he allowed.
And can we infer anything from the approval?

[Baa_Baa]

Does anybody know why Greg T can be buying shares with only 4 weeks before the HY1 result? As much as I fully respect the man and love to see him buying, surely he is in the "blackout stage " where he would have inside knowledge of things?

Edit...
Sorry folks , ignore this question... I just read at the bottom of his declaration he got "written permission in the closed period".

So, he obviously thinks its a good time to buy to be bothered applying for stuff like that from "the powers that be" rather than just waiting until after the result.

And it’s a massive buy on top of a humongous holding already… huge vote of confidence. Note the’ timing re the share price, buying when value presents itself.

[winner69]

I was going to say Mav that its always a good thing - more skin in the game.
but now you've seen the explanation Does that beg the obvious question. why was he allowed.
And can we infer anything from the approval?

Infer anything -- a great announcement on the way

[Waltzing]

"Prudence will dictate that dealings should generally be limited to the recommended times in the securities "2 month period prior to release of the interim and full year results announcements" and that the Chairman will generally refuse consent to deal in Company securities outside these recommended times unless exceptional circumstances exist (as outlined below). In any event, the Director or Senior Executive should not deal in Company securities at any time if the Director or Senior Executive is in possession of any inside information relating to those securities."

[winner69]

Hope Greg not doing a Norah ...in reverse

[Ferg]

Its a property company. The real earnings for the year are in the increase in NAV + dividends paid. Waste of time trying to unpack it any more than that.

Agree with the first half of what you say - the conclusion I am coming to is that they are a property company when you look at historical comprehensive earnings. Where I disagree with the second part is that as more units/suites/beds are added there is snowball effect of increased volumes -> increased unit turnover -> increased underlying profit as unused DMFs, resale margins etc. accrue to OCA and higher variable volumes are spread over a *relatively* stable fixed cost base. I say *relatively* fixed cost base but fixed costs appear to be semi-variable. With the snowball effect there should be exponential growth - the observed and modified EPS figures per Maverick suggest they are either perennially unlucky or we are at the early stages of exponential growth, i.e. still on the flat part of the curve until they iron out their growing pains.