OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[dabsman]

For what its worth my buys have been 99 102 119 & 75
And I have sold twice, never all..at 136 & 132. Now holding about 1/2 what I had.
Be patient.

$1.20 BV plus annual increase booked maybe 20% gives $1.44 and 1.25 times BV going from ForBarr gives $1.80...

The way this is trending we are closer to 80c than $1.80 haha/

Not worried as I bought a truck full at COVID discount last year but it is not motivating to watch the last couple of months share price performance

[Beagle]

First a joke to lighten the mood. How do you drive a Beagle crazy ? Put him in a large round kennel and tell him there's a huge bone in the corner.

Its time we had a refresh on the asset backing.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...535/346452.pdf
Page 23 NAV which includes NTA of $1.20 + 8 cents developments in progress was $1.28 as at 31 March 2021.
On top of that the NTA figure is watered down by CBRE when they do their valuation by the effect of discounting unsold units by about 25%.
Maverick has done some work on the effect of this and its about 8 cps. Seeing as we know units have been selling well from the other companies in this sector I think the 25% discount of unsold units is both inappropriate and too conservative so the real adjusted NTA as at 31 March is $1.28 + developments in progress making NAV (Net asset value) ~ $1.36 as at 31 March 2021.

The property market has been very strong since then and they have another 7.5 months of trading and developments progress since then
My contention is that the NAV at present is at least $1.40 per share.

Buying at $1.31 is buying at a decent discount to the assets of this company let alone their intellectual property and systems and they have been enjoying one of the best development margins in the industry. On top of that going forward they enjoy some of the lowest funding rates (raised $125m fixed for 7 years at just 2.3% last year and have another tranche of $100m locked in long term @ 3.3%).

I think this is getting seriously oversold.

[Antipodean]

NTA at $1.20 / share was last updated 21/05/2021. Have a look at any HPI update since then and decide for yourself if this is likely to remain the same at the HY announcement 29/11/2021, given the assets this business holds.


If we use that NTA though, the business is valued at ~$0.12 / share at a $1.32 share price. Not sure about you but my analysis is that this means it is undervalued. I would not take my word for it, but Mr. Tomlinson certainly must have had similar thoughts less than a month ago.

6 months seems like a long time between updates, so maybe the impatient market isn't valuing this highly. Isn't there a saying about impatient and patient market participants?

[Beagle]

NTA at $1.20 / share was last updated 21/05/2021. Have a look at any HPI update since then and decide for yourself if this is likely to remain the same at the HY announcement 29/11/2021, given the assets this business holds.


If we use that NTA though, the business is valued at ~$0.12 / share at a $1.32 share price. Not sure about you but my analysis is that this means it is undervalued. I would not take my word for it, but Mr. Tomlinson certainly must have had similar thoughts less than a month ago.

6 months seems like a long time between updates, so maybe the impatient market isn't valuing this highly. Isn't there a saying about impatient and patient market participants?

Yes for those that don't know “The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”. ~ Warren Buffett.

[couta1]

Yes for those that don't know “The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”. ~ Warren Buffett.

You had better staple a copy of your blue highlights on your kennel wall, you may have to view it daily to help you keep the faith for quite some time.

[Waltzing]

yes oversold... until construction grinds to a halt.. Big builders like this one should continue to be at the front of the queue right?

Recently a professional sold a business in hamilton and bought property up in thames to develop...

All plans for building are on hold and they are now living in a holiday park.

[Beagle]

You had better staple a copy of your blue highlights on your kennel wall, you may have to view it daily to help you keep the faith for quite some time.

Yes, with a picture of a large bone right next to it.

[percy]

Yes for those that don't know “The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.”. ~ Warren Buffett.

Classic.....................................
Lock up has done you some good.?......................lol.

[Joshuatree]

Lol, beware the dog without a bone, it starts digging holes

[ADogsLife]

I find it interesting many refer to their avg price per share. Personally, this has little bearing on the long term position I take to investing.
Having acquired a few nice bundles sub $.60 and then again up to the mid $.90's, as a return each have enjoyed exceptional returns in a relatively short timeframe. Over the past few weeks I have again been acquiring at prices between $1.40 and today at $1.31, and I concur with the older dogs on here (Beagle and others) regards their NAV analysis. This gap between news announcements and throwing a few darts I think your numbers are slightly on the conservative end of the spectrum, which is probably a good place to be.

My point; averaging the price suggests I could double my holding at over $2.00 ps and still average below current price. Should I? absolutely not. As and when each purchase is made, I analyse if this the right price to be acquiring here now today, not what I bought at last month or last year. This to me is important as a long term investor versus a trader.

Sure, OCA is proving itself to be boring as bat****. I'm ok with that.

Cin cin ragazzi.