OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[HITMAN]

reached the 1.30 bottom of trading range .... will it hold or will it bust ?

A few covid deaths will add spice to the mix... anything could happen, as long as assets are there it'll return to asset value one hopes. I'd me more worried about some of the other operators.

[Beagle]

Who knows, the whole NZX looks sick so its broad range sentiment across all the sectors.

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One real issue as I see it for the NZX is political risk. Overseas investors, (who own the majority of shares in NZX companies) are looking at the way this Government are running things with their woke policies. The recent noise about Govt interfering in private contractual law between tenant and landlord is massively corrosive to overseas investors confidence as is the tax changes with rental properties running roughshod over basic principles of interest deductibility that go back more than 100 years. Many of these properties are owned by overseas investors and they are thinking what's next ? The 3 waters theft of water assets is another thing setting off alarm bells. What other serious risks are obvious ? Reform of the retirement sector, reform of the electricity sector ? What else will they do in the name of social justice ? If this Govt can run roughshod over previously sacrosanct areas of tax and commercial law that go back to when Adam was a boy anything, literally anything is possible. This is a key question so I'll highlight it. If you were an overseas fund manager would you be reassessing the risks of investing in N.Z. assets ?

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

Another factor this year is of course the huge increase in 10 year Govt stock rates, up 200 basis points in a year and that in and of itself would normally translate to a reduction in the market PE of at least 2, so even with a bit of earnings growth we've seen PE contraction, arguably not enough taking into account the move in the 10 year Govt stock rate. I see little if any prospect of a year end rally for the NZX and the prospects for 2022 don't look especially encouraging to me. That's enough doom and gloom from me.

People, please feel free to ignore this post of you see things differently. Above are just two theories on why the market has performed very poorly this year. There's probably any number of other equally valid theories out there....but yeah, I have found the last two-three months a real grind.

[clips]

well said that man....

[artemis]

well said that man....

Agree, and would add a third theory. Panic leading to tweak, change and pray.

[Bjauck]

Agree, and would add a third theory. Panic leading to tweak, change and pray.

Agree from me too. We have the inflationary and problems from Covid plus some unsettling developments from this government with respect to commandeering local body assets for political purposes amongst other issues.

[bull....]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One real issue as I see it for the NZX is political risk. Overseas investors, (who own the majority of shares in NZX companies) are looking at the way this Government are running things with their woke policies. The recent noise about Govt interfering in private contractual law between tenant and landlord is massively corrosive to overseas investors confidence as is the tax changes with rental properties running roughshod over basic principles of interest deductibility that go back more than 100 years. Many of these properties are owned by overseas investors and they are thinking what's next ? The 3 waters theft of water assets is another thing setting off alarm bells. What other serious risks are obvious ? Reform of the retirement sector, reform of the electricity sector ? What else will they do in the name of social justice ? If this Govt can run roughshod over previously sacrosanct areas of tax and commercial law that go back to when Adam was a boy anything, literally anything is possible. This is a key question so I'll highlight it. If you were an overseas fund manager would you be reassessing the risks of investing in N.Z. assets ?

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

Another factor this year is of course the huge increase in 10 year Govt stock rates, up 200 basis points in a year and that in and of itself would normally translate to a reduction in the market PE of at least 2, so even with a bit of earnings growth we've seen PE contraction, arguably not enough taking into account the move in the 10 year Govt stock rate. I see little if any prospect of a year end rally for the NZX and the prospects for 2022 don't look especially encouraging to me. That's enough doom and gloom from me.

People, please feel free to ignore this post of you see things differently. Above are just two theories on why the market has performed very poorly this year. There's probably any number of other equally valid theories out there....but yeah, I have found the last two-three months a real grind.

yes good points about political decisions.
and yes nzx is bad at the moment .... what will happen when wall st starts going down nzx will go down even more nzx will never go up when wall st goes down
Im sure fund managers are watching 1.30 very closely they probably even discussed it offshore last night

[winner69]

Oceania still haven’t told me what the ebitda growth target to reach LTI

Meant to align these executives’ interests with the interests of Oceania’s shareholders.……do they know the interest of shareholders?

They tell us how rewards will dished out on TSR but no target for earnings

The Share Rights in each grant are divided between two performance hurdles;

– Share Rights will qualify for vesting on a straight-line basis, from 0%, where the total shareholder return (TSR) from the commencement date to the measurement date is equal to the 35th percentile of the NZX50 Group, to 100% where the TSR is equal to or greater than the 75th percentile of the NZX50 Group; and

– For the second performance hurdle, Share Rights will qualify for vesting if the Group’s annual growth in underlying earnings (before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) per share (UEPS) from the commencement date to the measurement date is equal to or greater than the target for growth in UEPS for that period.

Oh well ….shareholders good at dishing out dosh to management so why worry…and as long as OCA is not in the top third of dogs on the NZX it’s all fine

[couta1]

yes good points about political decisions.
and yes nzx is bad at the moment .... what will happen when wall st starts going down nzx will go down even more nzx will never go up when wall st goes down
Im sure fund managers are watching 1.30 very closely they probably even discussed it offshore last night

Not necessarily, the NZX may be a real value play at that point, those going long on this one have nothing to be concerned about, it will still be a multi bagger given time so only those consumed by short term noise and listening to fearmongering need be overly concerned.

[850man]

The above, well woofed Beagle. A real mess IMHO and hard to see it going away any time soon. The inmates running the asylum here in NZ

[bull....]

Not necessarily, the NZX may be a real value play at that point, those going long on this one have nothing to be concerned about, it will still be a multi bagger given time so only those consumed by short term noise and listening to fearmongering need be overly concerned.

wishful thinking.
nzx will do what its master says. the master being wall st. never in all history has nzx bucked the trend other than short term and this will never change. when wall st heads down as it will at some stage all markets will go down full stop.