OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[alokdhir]

Not necessarily, the NZX may be a real value play at that point, those going long on this one have nothing to be concerned about, it will still be a multi bagger given time so only those consumed by short term noise and listening to fearmongering need be overly concerned.

I fully agree with u ...Mark my words ...next year this time NZX will be up almost 15 % from here . Time will tell ...but odds in favour of that happening

Rising rates and economy stumbling , confidence waning , economic downturn ....donot go together ...Very soon market will realise that rates are not rising the way they thought as no Govt can afford to let that happen ...IMHO they will remain low for longer then people think as covid is not letting economies boom

[BlackPeter]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. One real issue as I see it for the NZX is political risk. Overseas investors, (who own the majority of shares in NZX companies) are looking at the way this Government are running things with their woke policies. The recent noise about Govt interfering in private contractual law between tenant and landlord is massively corrosive to overseas investors confidence as is the tax changes with rental properties running roughshod over basic principles of interest deductibility that go back more than 100 years. Many of these properties are owned by overseas investors and they are thinking what's next ? The 3 waters theft of water assets is another thing setting off alarm bells. What other serious risks are obvious ? Reform of the retirement sector, reform of the electricity sector ? What else will they do in the name of social justice ? If this Govt can run roughshod over previously sacrosanct areas of tax and commercial law that go back to when Adam was a boy anything, literally anything is possible. This is a key question so I'll highlight it. If you were an overseas fund manager would you be reassessing the risks of investing in N.Z. assets ?

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

Another factor this year is of course the huge increase in 10 year Govt stock rates, up 200 basis points in a year and that in and of itself would normally translate to a reduction in the market PE of at least 2, so even with a bit of earnings growth we've seen PE contraction, arguably not enough taking into account the move in the 10 year Govt stock rate. I see little if any prospect of a year end rally for the NZX and the prospects for 2022 don't look especially encouraging to me. That's enough doom and gloom from me.

People, please feel free to ignore this post of you see things differently. Above are just two theories on why the market has performed very poorly this year. There's probably any number of other equally valid theories out there....but yeah, I have found the last two-three months a real grind.

You raise some valid issues. I do see at least one other biggie:

NZ used to have initially an advantage as Covid free country, which we now clearly lost. We kept however all the shackles and straightjackets our government put on us to protect us from Covid, in particular the ridiculous MIQ lottery. On top of that we screwed up our immigration system and even routine applications are not anymore worked at .... try to get your visa transferred into your new passport - good luck!

All other countries are opening up, their systems are working and businesses operating in them are able to travel, to visit their customers and maintain their products. NZ business is not able to do that, which means we will lose more and more often against international competitors who have the advantage of being able to travel and look after their customers (which could be ours).

[couta1]

wishful thinking.
nzx will do what its master says. the master being wall st. never in all history has nzx bucked the trend other than short term and this will never change. when wall st heads down as it will at some stage all markets will go down full stop.

Its all relative, stocks flying in the clouds will be hit hardest, those already in the gutter less so, you needed worry bull, just come back with more negative stuff when we double our money in a few yrs and tell up why we aren't going to quadruple it. Lol

[Beagle]

The above, well woofed Beagle. A real mess IMHO and hard to see it going away any time soon. The inmates running the asylum here in NZ

Thanks and I agree about your latter point. If they get another term that's 5 more years of Nanaia Mahuta "style" ram it down our throats politics whether we like it or not, restorative justice for Maori and socialism in general and how would that affect our markets ? Perhaps for a clue we could look at the effects on the South African economy ?

I have always backed myself to beat the NZX and enjoyed our imputation system but the prospect of another 5 years of radical socialism is very sobering indeed and makes me feel like investing here is going to be like swimming hard against an outgoing tide. Very hard work.

In my opinion, one year into this new political environment serious investors should be reviewing what is the appropriate asset allocation in their portfolio to N.Z. stocks v international shares.

[bull....]

theres no buyers at 1.30 those off shore fund managers really did have a meeting last night

[RTM]

Our market has gone backwards this year, the worst performance in more than a decade and the worst I know of in the OECD... coincidence or the result of overseas investors losing confidence since Labour came to power ? You folks be the judge.

So far this year, my portfolio has not gone backwards, have got lucky with a few stocks that have rescued it I guess. However since mid August performance has been very flat. It is worth keeping in mind however, that the last few years...maybe up to 8 ?...there has been a steady rise. As long as one didn't bet on wild outliers...its been hard to go wrong. I think some consolidation can be expected, if a little painful for those who invested recently. It was never going to continue its path to the moon.

I am reminded of the people who complain about Tesla dropping recently....seeming to forget a few short months ago it was ~ US$700.

[couta1]

theres no buyers at 1.30 those off shore fund managers really did have a meeting last night

Yeah and they talked a lot of bull****.

[Beagle]

I'm doing fine overall for calendar year 2021 through careful stock selection but portfolio performance and life in general in Auckland since the lockdown in mid August has been very challenging.

Thank you for your perspective. I doubled my money on OCA in 2020...I guess on the back of that 2021 was always going to be underwhelming.

[peat]

So I think its because we had our run up in the second half of 2020
we didnt have covid and they did at that time. (may be the reason)

NZ50.JPG
US500.JPG

which does kind of prove we can go up when US isnt. Tho I do tend to agree its a lot less likely.

[bull....]

RBNZ meeting coming up soon , rate hikes on the table .... crush the bond proxy nzx is my guess