OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Ggcc]

The SP drop is concerning, but someone is selling out for various reasons, and there are a lot who are going with the flow. Could be a manipulation preceeding a takeover. I am so overweight now in this sector it scares me a bit, but I feel as a long term hold it will have merit. It would be a bugger if this relates to leaky building issues.

It will most likely be the possibility of how the following will impact all retirement operators. The ongoing cost of building that seems are increasing ten fold, followed with the lack of staff, followed by lack of tradies, the government who might want people to receive some of the capital gains and let’s throw covid in the mix scenario. I’m still in as this is a short term blimp, but anything the government adds onto the cost of the operator, would be silly not to pass onto the end user.

[davflaws]

Thanks mate, appreciated. Sometimes I'm my own worst enemy and expect perfection and that every investment decision I make will be right and every year every share owned will give me a positive outcome. That's not really realistic especially in the circumstances this year.

So when OCA drops into the red and (since I am ridiculously overweight) the whole portfolio gives a big lurch, or when PX1 heads down (a "punt" so not so exposed) - I go to sea.

A day off the E coast of Northland is good for the soul and even when the weather is not marvelous, I remember 5 years around Cook Strait and feel grateful.

You should do it more often.

[Baa_Baa]

The SP drop is concerning, but someone is selling out for various reasons, and there are a lot who are going with the flow. Could be a manipulation preceeding a takeover. I am so overweight now in this sector it scares me a bit, but I feel as a long term hold it will have merit. It would be a bugger if this relates to leaky building issues.

Forget the conspiracy manipulation takeover leaky building etc, the whole sector peaked late August and is now simultaneously falling, all of them. So, what sector macro events are causing the sell off?

We've had theories put forward here of covid, inflation, rising interest rates, house prices peaking, rising building costs, labour shortages, risk of regulation.

Whatever it is, or all of them, OCA is not alone in the sector sell-down. The whole sector is re-rating.

[winner69]

RYM NTA as Sep 21 up 24% from Sep 20 and up 7% from Mar 21

Hope OCA can do better than this ....esp as now they are well past that inflection point

[Beagle]

So when OCA drops into the red and (since I am ridiculously overweight) the whole portfolio gives a big lurch, or when PX1 heads down (a "punt" so not so exposed) - I go to sea.

A day off the E coast of Northland is good for the soul and even when the weather is not marvelous, I remember 5 years around Cook Strait and feel grateful.

You should do it more often.

I couldn't agree more and I would if I still owned a boat. Unfortunately there's huge numbers of Aucklanders looking for escapism at present so finding high quality late model launches at a fair price is like finding a needle in a haystack.

[BlackPeter]

I couldn't agree more and I would if I still owned a boat. Unfortunately there's huge numbers of Aucklanders looking for escapism at present so high quality launches at a fair price are like finding a needle in a haystack. I'm too scared to ask what one of these costs now, probably quite a bit north of a million ($1.2-$1.3m) and what the wait time is, probably well over a year. https://rmarine.nz/models/395-suv/

These sorts of things are best owned in a partnership as otherwise they sit on the marina for far too long eating their heads off with overheads and growing barnacles. If any highly experienced boatie wants to go halves please send me a PM.

I don't speak from own experience, but an old boatie once told me that owning a boat is the fastest way to drain money down the gurgler ... and I trust his judgement in that regard.

I think I would just keep my money in shares and when I want to go on a boat trip just rent a boat when I need it.

Shares make money, boats drain money. Easy choice.

[Beagle]

I can tell you from 17 years boating experience they cost a lot of money to run but chartering a good one at a fair price at the height of the summer season is much easier said than done. I edited that post because much as I wouldn't mind a half share in that boat I linked the prospect of $600K tied up in a very quickly depreciating asset (liability?), as well as about $15K to $20K per annum to run it, (my half share of costs) + fuel is not especially appealing. Been there, done that. I also found as I got into my 50's I was more prone to sea sickness. I want to try something different...not sure what that is just yet. Maybe a nice luxury motorhome, we'll see.

Speaking of feeling queasy....that OCA share price...down from $1.56 just a few months ago, ouch !!

[davflaws]

Kia ora Beagle

As you well know - a boat is a hole in the water lined with some durable material, into which you pour money. It has three dimensions - length, breadth, and debt. Or for those with nautical pretensions, length beam and (over)draft.

But try a 10ft parkercraft, garden trailer, 5hp outboard, chillybin with chardonnay and ice, pkt of squid and a berley bomb. Chump change for you.

Pootle about in the upper harbour and bring home a fish for tea.

[Baa_Baa]

OCA is not alone in the sector sell-down. The whole sector is re-rating.

Since the late August highs for RYM, SUM and OCA, and mid-Sept high for ARV, all of them are significantly down now, technically below the 200MA's, deep into over-sold RSI.

SUM -15.95%
RYM -18.04%
ARV -12.10%
OCA -18.89%

These are times when value investors who are in it for the long haul, who are not too concerned about day to day or month to month share price, might be seeing opportunities to enter or increase their holdings.

Those discounts to recent SP highs are looking tasty and possibly will be even more attractive as this re-rating runs its course.

[Beagle]

Kia ora Beagle

As you well know - a boat is a hole in the water lined with some durable material, into which you pour money. It has three dimensions - length, breadth, and debt. Or for those with nautical pretensions, length beam and (over)draft.

But try a 10ft parkercraft, garden trailer, 5hp outboard, chillybin with chardonnay and ice, pkt of squid and a berley bomb. Chump change for you.

Pootle about in the upper harbour and bring home a fish for tea.

Always a great way to spend some time https://www.smartmarine.co.nz/
Maxxon inflatables are a good bit of kit in my experience. Could easily fit one in the garage of a campervan, trundle off down the Coramandel and there's some awesome fishing to be had up close around the mussel farms