OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

Listening to bull about this stock is like listening to a real estate agent telling you how to fix your car. Lol Steady/Solid result by the way.

yes i see the market is totally uninspired by the result , just like me.

[Muse]

yes i see the market is totally uninspired by the result , just like me.

its a sea of red out there today, although a few minutes trading do not make a day. last trade @1.29 flat on last close - a lot better than the rest of the market.

[couta1]

yes i see the market is totally uninspired by the result , just like me.

Come on bull your not that silly(I hope) the market was always going to be uninspired on Omicron Monday.

[bull....]

Come on bull your not that silly(I hope) the market was always going to be uninspired on Omicron Monday.

dis agree nzx down 1% hardly a massive fall , if result was good it would have gone up

[couta1]

dis agree nzx down 1% hardly a massive fall , if result was good it would have gone up

I'm obviously giving you far too much credit, how many good results produce an upward sp movement on the day, maybe 50% of the time on average at a guess.

[YoungBull]

Is there a conference call today? Does anyone have the link?

[justakiwi]

https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1507877&tp_key=7208bb1c83

Is there a conference call today? Does anyone have the link?

[Mudfish]

On opening, all retirement stocks low volume turnover. Appears not a massive 'run for the hills' situation. With downwards pressure globally, the very solid if not excellent, OCA report will take time to be recognised. The good divi screams 'on track' to me. I'm back to the old, 'happy holder' situation. Thumbs up.

[Beagle]

Interesting call. On one hand fair adjusted value of NAV as confirmed by the CFO is $1.42 and they seem to be managing construction cost pressures well and the outlook for development is sound. Also care suite prices have risen nicely.
On the other hand (with 50% of their business model still in basic care) its disappointing to note that DHB funding for care services and the rate of funding increase to cover the rapidly rising cost of providing same is falling further behind with funding now 4.8% behind the real cost and the company in formal dispute with the Govt regarding this.

One analyst noted that care cost increases in the last 3 years had outstripped the rising DMF revenue from care suites, (or words to that effect) which fairly closely emulated my concerns expressed previously in this thread about the rampant cost of care.

9% rate of increase in the cost of care is at a very significant variation to what Earl was saying before he departed (that care costs would broadly be in line with funding increases).
Anyone who follows me will know this is an area of real concern for me and remains so going forward.

On a positive note Brent suggested that increases in the costs of care suites as the business model behind these has become more entrenched would provide increased DMF revenue and investment in high level clinical care could be amortised over a much increased number of care suites going forward.

Inflation pressures in the construction sector appear well managed. eps accretion from the Hobsonville Waterford acquisition was questioned by one analyst who expressed scepticism that this should have showed up already...lockdown effects notwithstanding.

Disappointing to see the 113 care suites at Lady Allum in Milford being pushed back into FY23.

Conclusion: This is an OK result in a difficult period with extensive lockdown's. Others will be more positive than me but there is no debate that the cost of providing care is rising at an alarming rate and this is not a new issue. If anything, this problem appears to be getting worse rather than being ameliorated by the expanding number of units.

Fair value NAV is $1.42 I accept that figure. I note this is the only company in the sector to trade at a discount to asset value. Cheap, or cheap for a reason ?, you folks be the judge.

Disc: Modest position owned as part of a well diversified portfolio. My rating HOLD for long term gradual capital appreciation and modest yield.

[winner69]

Thanks for listening i in and reporting beagle

That was very naughty of that analyst asking about EPS accretion ..... very naughty indeed

Maybe they had done the sums and found that EPS (underlying earnings) hadn't gone up much at all ....a few percent and nowhere near the 22% that UE went up in $ terms