OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Beagle]

Back to OCA. I'll give Maverick a chance to chime in here with some number crunching, as i don't like using my steam powered abacus on the weekends.
Hey Mav, if they're developing about 180 units this year (going from memory) and the average run rate about doubles from that going forward and at prices that are heading higher, if we assume that development margin stay's around the mid 20% mark what does that do to their development profits in the years ahead ?

Feeling a bit better about OCA after considering that ? I know we're not heading off into orbit on a rocket with this anytime soon but you can't go too far wrong at $1.30 when fair NAV is $1.42 and 75% of their future development book is already consented, surely !

I guess one other little thing, (or maybe not so little), is at least there's some sort of not too shabby yield prospects with this one and I note the average analyst is predicting 4.2% gross yield next year rising to 5.3% the following year. Those are good yields for this sector.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...68/financials/

[justakiwi]

Brent mentioned that they currently have around 4000 total "beds" (care plus village) - and they are aiming for 6000 - I think he said within the next 4-5 years, but don't quote me on that. He talked about a 26% development margin. He also mentioned that the village side of the business pays for staffing and investor dividends.

Have to go to work but need to watch the video again as there is more information in that video than first meets the eye.

Back to OCA. I'll give Maverick a chance to chime in here with some number crunching, as i don't like using my steam powered abacus on the weekends.
Hey Mav, if they're developing about 180 units this year (going from memory) and the average run rate about doubles from that going forward and at prices that are heading higher, if we assume that development margin stay's around the mid 20% mark what does that do to their development profits in the years ahead ?

Feeling a bit better about OCA after considering that ?

[Maverick]

Beagle, your onto it mate with your questions. I'm away from my stuff for a few days so cant get back to you in any detail. Gotta make the most of the country before AKL get unleashed.
It's been great to watch your thinking over the week exploring firstly the disappointment of the cares costs onto the ever important apartments. This company is almost your nemesis that you love and hate at the same time.
The build rate increase and capex increase ( from 50 to 70m) is one of the huge highlights most would not know how important that is to the next few years profit.
But you've sniffed it out.
I'll get back in a few days to you

The care suites are just the opening band, it's the apartments that are the main event.

And BTW JAK thanks for that link. Its fabulous how everyone here adds to the value.

[Beagle]

Thanks mate. Me and OCA...a clear case of give a dog a bone lol https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...B2&FORM=WRVORC

[Maverick]

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[bull....]

hope people traded the bounce into non imputed div , as expected short lived bounce. in theory the down trend is intact

[justakiwi]

I wanna know what you were going to say

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[BlackPeter]

hope people traded the bounce into non imputed div , as expected short lived bounce. in theory the down trend is intact

It is ... though still slightly above the MA400 ($1.27) :

It is one of the companies I like to buy below the MA400 (a strong buy signal for the right company) ... however have already lots of them and sleeping well :

[shwatch]

How low below NTA does this go? Essentially liquidate and still get some..

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...198/361089.pdf

Liz Coutts buys 50,000 more @ $1.31