OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[bull....]

I had a conversation with my broker regarding his thoughts on buying more Oca. In summery said it’s not a buy even at current price because.

(1) EPS decreased due to less development margin and more importantly care costs increasing . Oca have a large weighting to care, Oca costs have gone up due to cvd and wage increases and the funding from the government has not matched the big increases in costs. So they are stuck and will get worse unless the government comes to the party.

(2) House prices have peaked and the risk is to the downside. So if this indeed does happen selling prices will be under pressure and existing valuations could fall.

(3) The secter is in a funk due to increasing interest rates and items above plus fear of Government intervention into the retirement secter.

(4) cvd is not over and what lays in store is still undetermined.

Anyway hope that helps. It’s only an opinion of one broker so bear that in mind.

good points. as i mentioned earlier in thread about not paying to much attention to nta and this a good example eps is more relevant than nta in valuation of companies as are cashflow metrics

[winner69]

I had a conversation with my broker regarding his thoughts on buying more Oca. In summery said it’s not a buy even at current price because.

(1) EPS decreased due to less development margin and more importantly care costs increasing . Oca have a large weighting to care, Oca costs have gone up due to cvd and wage increases and the funding from the government has not matched the big increases in costs. So they are stuck and will get worse unless the government comes to the party.

(2) House prices have peaked and the risk is to the downside. So if this indeed does happen selling prices will be under pressure and existing valuations could fall.

(3) The secter is in a funk due to increasing interest rates and items above plus fear of Government intervention into the retirement secter.

(4) cvd is not over and what lays in store is still undetermined.

Anyway hope that helps. It’s only an opinion of one broker so bear that in mind.

Sounds like your broker reads this thread ..

Put it to the test …..ask him about ARV or SKT

[RTM]

I had a conversation with my broker regarding his thoughts on buying more Oca. In summery said it’s not a buy even at current price because.

(.

2-4 pretty much what I posted quite a while ago when I halved my allocation of SUM & OCA.
Still happy with decision and funds went into other companies that are doing well at this stage.

Still a decent sized holding….not adding or selling.

[Muse]

I had a conversation with my broker regarding his thoughts on buying more Oca. In summery said it’s not a buy even at current price because.

(1) EPS decreased due to less development margin and more importantly care costs increasing . Oca have a large weighting to care, Oca costs have gone up due to cvd and wage increases and the funding from the government has not matched the big increases in costs. So they are stuck and will get worse unless the government comes to the party.

(2) House prices have peaked and the risk is to the downside. So if this indeed does happen selling prices will be under pressure and existing valuations could fall.

(3) The secter is in a funk due to increasing interest rates and items above plus fear of Government intervention into the retirement secter.

(4) cvd is not over and what lays in store is still undetermined.

Anyway hope that helps. It’s only an opinion of one broker so bear that in mind.

All sensible enough. I'm a happy long term term holder and not a buyer across the industry. If I were I'd probably buy some SUM as their business model is more fit for purpose in the current environment. Will look at how things unfold next few years and if a substantial correction maybe buy more otherwise spend me pennies elsewhere (harder said than done in this environment!)

[couta1]

I had a conversation with my broker regarding his thoughts on buying more Oca. In summery said it’s not a buy even at current price because.

(1) EPS decreased due to less development margin and more importantly care costs increasing . Oca have a large weighting to care, Oca costs have gone up due to cvd and wage increases and the funding from the government has not matched the big increases in costs. So they are stuck and will get worse unless the government comes to the party.

(2) House prices have peaked and the risk is to the downside. So if this indeed does happen selling prices will be under pressure and existing valuations could fall.

(3) The secter is in a funk due to increasing interest rates and items above plus fear of Government intervention into the retirement secter.

(4) cvd is not over and what lays in store is still undetermined.

Anyway hope that helps. It’s only an opinion of one broker so bear that in mind.

Opinion of a broker equals rubbish bin material.

[YoungBull]

Opinion of a broker equals rubbish bin material.

Careful now Couts old boy, last time you were using language like this it regarded ATM. Please don’t jinx this one with blind optimism 😂 he raises valid points

[BlackPeter]

I had a conversation with my broker regarding his thoughts on buying more Oca. In summery said it’s not a buy even at current price because.

(1) EPS decreased due to less development margin and more importantly care costs increasing . Oca have a large weighting to care, Oca costs have gone up due to cvd and wage increases and the funding from the government has not matched the big increases in costs. So they are stuck and will get worse unless the government comes to the party.

(2) House prices have peaked and the risk is to the downside. So if this indeed does happen selling prices will be under pressure and existing valuations could fall.

(3) The secter is in a funk due to increasing interest rates and items above plus fear of Government intervention into the retirement secter.

(4) cvd is not over and what lays in store is still undetermined.

Anyway hope that helps. It’s only an opinion of one broker so bear that in mind.

Well, I guess all these are well known observations and assumptions which may or may not come true, however most of them are not specific to OCA. They apply to all retirement villages or probably better to all REITS.

Nothing new, i.e. the market knows about them - i.e. they are fully priced in (but obviously - everybody might put a different likelihood on opportunities and risks eventuating in the future ....

Did I mention that brokers are sometimes right and sometimes wrong ... and statistically seen there seems to be no correlation between their predictions and the actual outcome?

So - better DYOR instead of trusting a broker - you won't be more often right or wrong than your broker, but at least in that case its you making or losing your money, not him (or her?) ...;

Discl: holding OCA ... and expecting them to do better than some of the already fuller priced retirement villages like RYM or SUM - but hey, I am as well sometimes right and sometimes I am wrong ;

[couta1]

Careful now Couts old boy, last time you were using language like this it regarded ATM. Please don’t jinx this one with blind optimism  he raises valid points

OCA is a needs based business and doesn't rely on China for its income, this stock doesn't have anywhere near the hype that ATM had and is just too boring to ever have it.

[Habits]

Sounds like your broker reads this thread ..

Put it to the test …..ask him about ARV or SKT

Yes good one I am surprised that potential customer demand waning as covid hype dies down, as well as new competitors by the likes of vivid were not mentioned.

[Mrbuyit]

I understand yesterday was the last day of the calculation for the DRP price, does anyone know roughly what the price will be, either with or without the 2.5% discount. It's not super important in the big scheme of things but interested to know roughly how many shares I'll get.