OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[fiasco]

well i thought i got out to early but i see its been hammered back down again ... 1.30 test again ?

errrr I think it's time for Bull to take a break from the internet.

Have a great xmas everyone, the stock will do what it wants.

Desc - Holding, review again next financials.

[ronaldson]

BHW - That's the way of the world now, in the sense that most trades on the NZX involve multiple, and usually small, fills.

BP is correct that Jarden send only one Contract Note per Order per day ( you only get more than one for an Order if you end a day with only a part fill of your Order - then the balance gets carried over to the next trading day or days until satisfied ). Even with Jarden thou you can see how many partial buys or sells made up your Order by clicking on "history " of the relevant Order ( next to the "edit" function, where you can vary your price or quantity ).

I commenced as a small holder at the last placement, but have just acquired another 19k. It has traded as high as $1.38 after going ex dividend so in my mind an entry at mid $1.30's or just under is quite reasonable given fundamentals and sector tailwinds. Much harder to start as a holder with RYM or SUM.

[dreamcatcher]

Hard to get a grip of these going up/going down notices

Housing crisis: Asking prices up 50 percent in just five years, homeowners making more from property than work | Newshub

[allfromacell]

Hard to get a grip of these going up/going down notices

Housing crisis: Asking prices up 50 percent in just five years, homeowners making more from property than work | Newshub

Just ignore all the noise and follow the REINZ HPI data released monthly, it's a comprehensive dataset that tracks like for like house prices across every major district in the country. Ignore the mean and median, these are too noisy, even the RBNZ monitors the HPI.

So far there is zero evidence of house price falls in this data.

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ber%202021.pdf

[850man]

Right now the lack of overseas migrants is helping keep house prices somewhat dampened (even though they are not showing signs of that) with reduced demand. When this loosens up, and let's hope it does because businesses are also suffering with lack of skilled workers, I'm sure we'll see the market take off furiously. Only real solution is increased supply and I have no confidence that will be sorted under the current regime

[BlackPeter]

...

Only real solution is increased supply and I have no confidence that will be sorted under the current regime

Just remind us - what did the regime before this regime do to resolve this problem? Right - absolutely nothing.

Expect the same from this regime and the regime which will come ... but hey, this is anyway for a different thread.

I am sure OCA will do well whoever holds the reigns ...

[Waltzing]

A recent article in the Herald indicated by current construction rates an over supply by 2023.

However the global supply chain for material we are informed wont unlock itself until 2024.

Lots of factors at play and for this sector surely there is going to be an increased costs of protecting inmates that could go sky high with omicron.

But wait they have probably run out of staffing resources.....

which means there systems will have to tighten up even farther to protect the inmates..

Adding to costs and detracting from the business of make big profits.

Winners posted articles of fuel addictive supply shortages in AUS going world wide shows the whole supply chain is starting to be impacted and this company is a property development company doing a lot of development.

[Muse]

A recent article in the Herald indicated by current construction rates an over supply by 2023.

However the global supply chain for material we are informed wont unlock itself until 2024.

Lots of factors at play and for this sector surely there is going to be an increased costs of protecting inmates that could go sky high with omicron.

But wait they have probably run out of staffing resources.....

which means there systems will have to tighten up even farther to protect the inmates..

Adding to costs and detracting from the business of make big profits.

Winners posted articles of fuel addictive supply shortages in AUS going world wide shows the whole supply chain is starting to be impacted and this company is a property development company doing a lot of development.

Rising interest rates, construction material/labour inflation, now *potential* building oversupply (or more likely just in balance/less undersupply)

Risings costs associated with care

few darks clouds out there eh - interesting times.

[Beagle]

They talked about how they're managing supply chain issues in the recent call. I took A LOT of comfort from what they had to say.

Likewise, I think HLG are highly experienced at managing these issues.

I'm not losing any sleep over this.

[Shareguy]

We sold a rental property a couple of months ago in Otara , Auckland . Spoke to the agent who sold it this week who said the market is already down 10 to 15 percent. There has been a lack of first home buyers and investors since the recent finance changes. Ok so what’s the bid deal, when the market is up 30 percent this year.? My concerns are that the Oca and others in the sector rely on unrealised property valuations which in my opinion are over inflated. Building costs are skyrocketing and then you have the threat of COVID and the implications that has. Simon bridges was handed a petition recently to look at this secter. It’s going to happen, it’s just a question of when.

So the government is not coming to the party with care costs when all the operators have increased costs with the minimum wage increase and cv19. There seems to be a lot of talk that there are a million kiwis overseas and a large number want to come home. It could also be argued that there is a large number of people who may leave NZ for greener pastures, after all the world is short of good working people. Competition for skilled workers could be a big threat for NZ.

So to sum it up I think the retirement secter in general has more of a risk to the downside. I have all four main stocks and they are a hold for me until I see some clarity. I notice that Jarden have removed Oca from thier model portfolio.